**ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, issued by Pre-Trial Chamber I in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza operations, remains outstanding but unenforced.** No Rome Statute state party has detained him, and Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction. Trader consensus prices arrest risk through September 30 at around 2% and year-end at 6%, reflecting consistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration—including sanctions on ICC personnel—and explicit statements that Netanyahu will not face detention on American soil. Netanyahu has signaled plans to address the UN General Assembly in New York in early September 2026, with federal assurances limiting enforcement options there. Separate Turkish domestic proceedings and Interpol coordination add potential channels but have not produced custody. Scheduled travel and diplomatic protections continue to shape the low implied probabilities ahead of the resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$24,779 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
<1%
December 31
7%
$24,779 Wol.
September 30
$18,525 Wol.
<1%
December 31
$6,254 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, issued by Pre-Trial Chamber I in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza operations, remains outstanding but unenforced.** No Rome Statute state party has detained him, and Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction. Trader consensus prices arrest risk through September 30 at around 2% and year-end at 6%, reflecting consistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration—including sanctions on ICC personnel—and explicit statements that Netanyahu will not face detention on American soil. Netanyahu has signaled plans to address the UN General Assembly in New York in early September 2026, with federal assurances limiting enforcement options there. Separate Turkish domestic proceedings and Interpol coordination add potential channels but have not produced custody. Scheduled travel and diplomatic protections continue to shape the low implied probabilities ahead of the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$24,779Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, issued by Pre-Trial Chamber I in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza operations, remains outstanding but unenforced.** No Rome Statute state party has detained him, and Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction. Trader consensus prices arrest risk through September 30 at around 2% and year-end at 6%, reflecting consistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration—including sanctions on ICC personnel—and explicit statements that Netanyahu will not face detention on American soil. Netanyahu has signaled plans to address the UN General Assembly in New York in early September 2026, with federal assurances limiting enforcement options there. Separate Turkish domestic proceedings and Interpol coordination add potential channels but have not produced custody. Scheduled travel and diplomatic protections continue to shape the low implied probabilities ahead of the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$24,779Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, issued by Pre-Trial Chamber I in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza operations, remains outstanding but unenforced.** No Rome Statute state party has detained him, and Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction. Trader consensus prices arrest risk through September 30 at around 2% and year-end at 6%, reflecting consistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration—including sanctions on ICC personnel—and explicit statements that Netanyahu will not face detention on American soil. Netanyahu has signaled plans to address the UN General Assembly in New York in early September 2026, with federal assurances limiting enforcement options there. Separate Turkish domestic proceedings and Interpol coordination add potential channels but have not produced custody. Scheduled travel and diplomatic protections continue to shape the low implied probabilities ahead of the resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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