Security Council straw polls in July and August 2026 have produced shifting leads without a clear frontrunner, driving the fragmented trader consensus reflected in current implied probabilities. Rebeca Grynspan’s UNCTAD leadership and development focus initially drew the strongest encourage votes, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett’s record as Guyana’s permanent representative gained ground in the second round. Rafael Grossi’s IAEA tenure and security expertise trail, with remaining GRULAC and African candidates further splitting support. Regional rotation norms favor Latin American and Caribbean contenders, yet P5 backing and the ability to minimize discourage votes remain decisive. Additional straw polls, interactive dialogues, and veto dynamics in the coming months could consolidate backing around one candidate before a Security Council recommendation reaches the General Assembly.