The rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination, has preserved institutional continuity and command structures within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC. This transition, alongside sustained security force loyalty amid economic sanctions, a naval blockade, and sporadic protests, underpins trader consensus that regime change is improbable by late September. External diplomatic and military pressures have not triggered elite defections or mass defections in the security apparatus. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome within the window include sudden leadership incapacitation, large-scale coordinated uprisings overwhelming local forces, or decisive foreign military intervention accelerating internal fractures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% szansa
$1,620,813 Wol.
$1,620,813 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% szansa
$1,620,813 Wol.
$1,620,813 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination, has preserved institutional continuity and command structures within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC. This transition, alongside sustained security force loyalty amid economic sanctions, a naval blockade, and sporadic protests, underpins trader consensus that regime change is improbable by late September. External diplomatic and military pressures have not triggered elite defections or mass defections in the security apparatus. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome within the window include sudden leadership incapacitation, large-scale coordinated uprisings overwhelming local forces, or decisive foreign military intervention accelerating internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,620,813Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination, has preserved institutional continuity and command structures within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC. This transition, alongside sustained security force loyalty amid economic sanctions, a naval blockade, and sporadic protests, underpins trader consensus that regime change is improbable by late September. External diplomatic and military pressures have not triggered elite defections or mass defections in the security apparatus. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome within the window include sudden leadership incapacitation, large-scale coordinated uprisings overwhelming local forces, or decisive foreign military intervention accelerating internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,620,813Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination, has preserved institutional continuity and command structures within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC. This transition, alongside sustained security force loyalty amid economic sanctions, a naval blockade, and sporadic protests, underpins trader consensus that regime change is improbable by late September. External diplomatic and military pressures have not triggered elite defections or mass defections in the security apparatus. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome within the window include sudden leadership incapacitation, large-scale coordinated uprisings overwhelming local forces, or decisive foreign military intervention accelerating internal fractures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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