Recent Iranian parliamentary proposals to ban U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from the Strait of Hormuz while imposing tolls on others, alongside stalled Oman-mediated talks granting Tehran inbound traffic control, have elevated perceived risks and insurance costs for ship operators. These developments sustain elevated threat assessments from maritime security groups and encourage rerouting or idling, keeping weekly transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 900-1,000 vessels. Market-implied odds for 25-49 ships this week reflect trader consensus on persistent caution driven by regulatory uncertainty and IRGC oversight demands, with lower buckets priced for further delays in any broader reopening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 41%
<25 30%
50-74 15%
75-99 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<25
30%
25-49
41%
50-74
15%
75-99
12%
100+
6%
25-49 41%
<25 30%
50-74 15%
75-99 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$141 Wol.
30%
25-49
$96 Wol.
41%
50-74
$62 Wol.
15%
75-99
$76 Wol.
12%
100+
$164 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Iranian parliamentary proposals to ban U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from the Strait of Hormuz while imposing tolls on others, alongside stalled Oman-mediated talks granting Tehran inbound traffic control, have elevated perceived risks and insurance costs for ship operators. These developments sustain elevated threat assessments from maritime security groups and encourage rerouting or idling, keeping weekly transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 900-1,000 vessels. Market-implied odds for 25-49 ships this week reflect trader consensus on persistent caution driven by regulatory uncertainty and IRGC oversight demands, with lower buckets priced for further delays in any broader reopening.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$539Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Iranian parliamentary proposals to ban U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from the Strait of Hormuz while imposing tolls on others, alongside stalled Oman-mediated talks granting Tehran inbound traffic control, have elevated perceived risks and insurance costs for ship operators. These developments sustain elevated threat assessments from maritime security groups and encourage rerouting or idling, keeping weekly transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 900-1,000 vessels. Market-implied odds for 25-49 ships this week reflect trader consensus on persistent caution driven by regulatory uncertainty and IRGC oversight demands, with lower buckets priced for further delays in any broader reopening.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$539Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Iranian parliamentary proposals to ban U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from the Strait of Hormuz while imposing tolls on others, alongside stalled Oman-mediated talks granting Tehran inbound traffic control, have elevated perceived risks and insurance costs for ship operators. These developments sustain elevated threat assessments from maritime security groups and encourage rerouting or idling, keeping weekly transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 900-1,000 vessels. Market-implied odds for 25-49 ships this week reflect trader consensus on persistent caution driven by regulatory uncertainty and IRGC oversight demands, with lower buckets priced for further delays in any broader reopening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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