Recent recovery in Strait of Hormuz transits following the June 2026 US-Iran interim agreement has lifted weekly volumes from near-standstill levels, yet persistent IRGC warnings, mine risks, and reliance on US naval escorts keep volumes well below historical norms of roughly 100-plus vessels. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the 75-99 and 50-74 bins, traders price in gradual normalization driven by improved insurance availability and energy price incentives, while assigning only modest weight to a swift rebound above 100 or a relapse below 50. Key swing factors include any escalation in IRGC rhetoric or confirmed US convoy activity in the coming days, alongside broader oil-market volatility that could accelerate or deter commercial routing decisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
75-99 46%
50-74 45%
25-49 42%
100+ 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<25
23%
25-49
42%
50-74
45%
75-99
46%
100+
39%
75-99 46%
50-74 45%
25-49 42%
100+ 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
<25
$0 Wol.
23%
25-49
$0 Wol.
42%
50-74
$0 Wol.
45%
75-99
$0 Wol.
46%
100+
$0 Wol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent recovery in Strait of Hormuz transits following the June 2026 US-Iran interim agreement has lifted weekly volumes from near-standstill levels, yet persistent IRGC warnings, mine risks, and reliance on US naval escorts keep volumes well below historical norms of roughly 100-plus vessels. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the 75-99 and 50-74 bins, traders price in gradual normalization driven by improved insurance availability and energy price incentives, while assigning only modest weight to a swift rebound above 100 or a relapse below 50. Key swing factors include any escalation in IRGC rhetoric or confirmed US convoy activity in the coming days, alongside broader oil-market volatility that could accelerate or deter commercial routing decisions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent recovery in Strait of Hormuz transits following the June 2026 US-Iran interim agreement has lifted weekly volumes from near-standstill levels, yet persistent IRGC warnings, mine risks, and reliance on US naval escorts keep volumes well below historical norms of roughly 100-plus vessels. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the 75-99 and 50-74 bins, traders price in gradual normalization driven by improved insurance availability and energy price incentives, while assigning only modest weight to a swift rebound above 100 or a relapse below 50. Key swing factors include any escalation in IRGC rhetoric or confirmed US convoy activity in the coming days, alongside broader oil-market volatility that could accelerate or deter commercial routing decisions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent recovery in Strait of Hormuz transits following the June 2026 US-Iran interim agreement has lifted weekly volumes from near-standstill levels, yet persistent IRGC warnings, mine risks, and reliance on US naval escorts keep volumes well below historical norms of roughly 100-plus vessels. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the 75-99 and 50-74 bins, traders price in gradual normalization driven by improved insurance availability and energy price incentives, while assigning only modest weight to a swift rebound above 100 or a relapse below 50. Key swing factors include any escalation in IRGC rhetoric or confirmed US convoy activity in the coming days, alongside broader oil-market volatility that could accelerate or deter commercial routing decisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania