Israeli officials have tied any full withdrawal of ground forces from southern Lebanon to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and removal of threats across the country, with Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirming this position on August 13, 2026, after U.S. criticism of extended buffer-zone plans. A June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement outlined phased redeployments from pilot zones in exchange for Lebanese army deployment and militant disarmament, resulting in limited handovers in July, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms and demanded unconditional Israeli exit. Trader consensus reflects these conditions-based barriers, historical patterns of prolonged security zones, and absence of near-term diplomatic breakthroughs that would enable complete withdrawal by most resolution dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael states it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed
Israel announced that it would maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely until Hezbollah is fully disarmed, rejecting any immediate withdrawal. This statement reinforced market pessimism about withdrawal by the end of August or September.
Israel ties further withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah disarmament
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, reinforcing the conditional nature of any withdrawal and maintaining Israeli military presence, which kept market prices for withdrawal very low.
Israel states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israel publicly stated it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is fully disarmed, following US criticism of Israel's indefinite military presence. This reaffirmed the deadlock and diminished market confidence in withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli defense minister states no withdrawal until Hezbollah disarmed, drawing US criticism
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel would not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, clarifying previous remarks suggesting indefinite occupation, which drew criticism from the US and further reduced market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister says no withdrawal until Hezbollah disarmed
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling an indefinite military presence and further diminishing market expectations for withdrawal by August 31 or September 30.
Analysis: Neither side in a rush to implement Israel-Lebanon accord
Reports indicated that Lebanon expected months to implement the pilot zones demilitarization program, while Israel showed no urgency to withdraw from the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, reinforcing market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli military erects earth mound in southern Lebanese town, violating withdrawal agreement
Israeli forces crossed into the southern Lebanese town of Zoutar El Gharbiyeh and erected an earth mound, violating the June 26 US-brokered framework agreement that called for phased Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment, undermining trust in withdrawal progress.
Lebanon-Israel talks stall with no progress on Israeli withdrawal
September 30 dips to 2%3%
Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel failed to secure progress on Israeli withdrawal or a genuine ceasefire. Israel prioritized Hezbollah's disarmament, while Lebanon insisted on full withdrawal, leading to stalled talks and reduced market confidence in withdrawal by September or December.
Lebanon and Israel agree on countries to verify Hezbollah disarmament
Lebanon and Israel agreed on a preliminary list of countries that could send troops to verify Hezbollah's disarmament as part of the US-brokered agreement linking Israeli withdrawal to disarmament. This development showed progress in implementation talks but full withdrawal remained conditional.
Two Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon explosion amid ceasefire violations
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an explosion in southern Lebanon, the first Israeli deaths since the June truce, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes and raising doubts about the ceasefire and withdrawal prospects.
Two Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon explosion amid fragile truce
Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an explosion during a security operation in southern Lebanon, the first Israeli deaths since the June ceasefire. Israel responded with strikes and evacuation orders, escalating tensions during ongoing US-mediated talks in Rome.
Israel resumes strikes in southern Lebanon amid stalled withdrawal talks
Despite ongoing US-mediated talks in Rome, Israel launched strikes in southern Lebanon following ceasefire violations, underscoring the fragile security situation and delaying full withdrawal prospects.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon despite framework agreement
September 30 dips to 2%4%
Despite the framework agreement, Israel carried out drone and airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah operatives, indicating ongoing military operations and undermining confidence in a full withdrawal. Israeli military casualties were also reported, highlighting continued conflict.
Israel launches airstrikes in southern Lebanon after accusing Hezbollah of ceasefire violation
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing one and injuring 11, following accusations of Hezbollah violating the ceasefire. The strikes targeted towns including Tibnin and Mansouri, with Israel issuing evacuation orders, marking a significant escalation amid ongoing talks.
Israeli Chief of Staff rules out disarmament, impacting Lebanon withdrawal odds
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there was no goal of disarming Hezbollah or ceasing military operations on the northern front, signaling continued Israeli military presence in Lebanon. This statement was interpreted as reducing the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal by the end of 2026, reflected in market price declines.
Two Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
September 30 dips to 4%3%
An explosion killed two Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, prompting Israeli strikes and evacuation warnings, highlighting ongoing conflict risks despite the ceasefire and withdrawal talks.
Israel conducts strikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
The Israeli military launched strikes in southern Lebanon after accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire. The framework agreement's withdrawal plan depends on Lebanese army disarming Hezbollah, which remains unlikely, further dampening prospects for full Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon amid fragile ceasefire
Two Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, marking the first Israeli deaths since the June truce. This incident highlighted ongoing hostilities and instability, further diminishing prospects for a full Israeli withdrawal in the near term.
Israel confirms no timetable for full withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Israeli officials confirmed there is no set timetable for a full withdrawal from Lebanon, citing ongoing security threats from Hezbollah, which further reduced market expectations for withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel begins phased withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones under US supervision
August 31 dips to 1%3%
Israel started the phased military pullback from designated pilot zones with Lebanese Armed Forces taking control, representing the first concrete implementation step but not a full withdrawal announcement, keeping market prices low.
Two Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon amid fragile truce
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an explosion in southern Lebanon, marking the first Israeli deaths since the June truce with Hezbollah. This escalation occurred during ongoing talks about Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament, increasing doubts about a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon kill one and injure 11 amid ongoing talks
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israeli military conducted targeted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing one and injuring 11, citing Hezbollah ceasefire violations. This escalation occurred during US-mediated peace talks in Rome, undermining confidence in a full Israeli withdrawal by deadlines.
Israel continues military presence in southern Lebanon amid stalled withdrawal talks
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Despite the framework agreement, Israeli officials including Netanyahu reaffirmed that forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while Hezbollah rejects the deal, maintaining a stalemate and low market confidence in withdrawal by year-end.
Israel and Lebanon hold seventh round of peace talks in Rome
September 30 dips to 4%2%
Diplomatic talks continued with Israeli and Lebanese envoys meeting to advance peace and security arrangements, including disarmament of Hezbollah and withdrawal conditions. While talks maintained dialogue, no immediate withdrawal announcement was made, sustaining low market probabilities for withdrawal by September and December.
US facilitates Israel-Lebanon talks in Italy to advance withdrawal framework
The US hosted talks in Rome focusing on advancing the implementation of the withdrawal framework, including expanding pilot zones and resolving border disputes, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no full withdrawal announcement.
Seventh round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks begins in Rome
Diplomatic talks resumed aiming to establish new pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army control, but no concrete timetable or full withdrawal announcement emerged, maintaining market skepticism about withdrawal by August 31.
Israel and Lebanon resume talks amid ongoing tensions and conditional withdrawal terms
Envoys from Israel and Lebanon met again in Rome to continue negotiations on disarmament of Hezbollah and Israeli withdrawal. The talks underscored the conditional nature of withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament, maintaining uncertainty and low market confidence in a full withdrawal by year-end.
Seventh round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks begins in Rome on pilot zones
September 30 dips to 2%2%
Diplomatic talks resumed aiming to implement new pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army control, but ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah opposition kept market expectations low for full withdrawal by September.
Seventh round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks begins in Rome amid ongoing strikes
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Lebanese and Israeli delegations began the seventh round of US-mediated talks in Rome to discuss pilot zones and withdrawal implementation, but Israeli strikes continued, highlighting the fragile nature of the ceasefire and withdrawal process.
Israeli leadership publicly vows to remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary,' rejecting any immediate withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism about withdrawal by all dates, pushing prices to historic lows.
Israel kills Hezbollah members on strategic Lebanon hilltop amid ongoing conflict
December 31 rises to 13%1%
Israeli military operations intensified with targeted strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, signaling continued conflict and reducing prospects for imminent full withdrawal. This escalation contributed to market pessimism about withdrawal by year-end.
Israel announces killing of Hezbollah members amid ongoing clashes in southern Lebanon
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israel reported killing several Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon, indicating continued military operations and no full withdrawal, maintaining market skepticism about withdrawal by year-end.
Israeli military kills Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon amid ongoing clashes
Israeli forces killed several Hezbollah members on a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon, signaling continued military operations and instability in the region. This ongoing conflict and lack of comprehensive withdrawal contributed to market pessimism about Israel fully withdrawing by the end of 2026.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite U.S. pressure
September 30 drops to 4%5%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the U.S. demanded it, reinforcing a firm stance against withdrawal and reducing market confidence in near-term exit.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirm no full withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any immediate or full withdrawal, which sharply lowered market expectations.
US official confirms Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones to begin soon
August 31 rises to 4%1%
A US official announced that Israeli Defense Forces would begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, signaling initial implementation of the framework agreement and causing slight market optimism for partial withdrawal by July 31, though no full withdrawal was announced.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US pressure
December 31 dips to 11%3%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, reinforcing the position that no full withdrawal announcement would occur soon. This statement further depressed market expectations for withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli officials publicly reject immediate withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 12%10%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and other officials stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite international pressure. This hardened market sentiment against near-term withdrawal, causing a sharp drop in probabilities for all dates.
US confirms supervision of phased Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
August 31 rises to 4%2%
The US announced it would oversee Israel's gradual military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the start of phased withdrawal but falling short of full withdrawal, causing slight market optimism.
Israeli officials affirm extended occupation despite partial withdrawals
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israeli leaders including Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz reaffirmed that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed, dampening market expectations for full withdrawal by year-end.
Netanyahu publicly vows Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 drops to 12%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli ground forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary,' rejecting any immediate withdrawal. This statement significantly lowered market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Israel rejects further withdrawals from Lebanon, insists on freedom of action
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Israel declared it would not agree to any additional withdrawals from Lebanon in upcoming negotiations and sought to maintain freedom of action in areas handed over to Lebanese forces. This hardened stance diminished prospects for a full withdrawal announcement by market deadlines.
Israel rules out further withdrawal from Lebanon, seeks freedom of action
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israel declared it would not agree to additional withdrawals in upcoming negotiations and insisted on maintaining freedom of action in areas handed over to Lebanese forces. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel rejects immediate withdrawal, insists on freedom of action in Lebanon
Israeli Defense Minister and Prime Minister publicly rejected any immediate full withdrawal from Lebanon, emphasizing continued military presence until Hezbollah is disarmed. This stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel says no further south Lebanon withdrawals without Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 dips to 5%1%
Israel informed mediators it will not agree to additional withdrawals during upcoming US-mediated talks unless Hezbollah is disarmed and security arrangements are strengthened, reinforcing the conditional nature of the withdrawal process.
Israel declares no further withdrawals from southern Lebanon without Hezbollah disarmament
Israel informed mediators it would not agree to any additional withdrawals from southern Lebanon unless Hezbollah is disarmed and security arrangements are strengthened, signaling a firm stance against full withdrawal and limiting market optimism.
Hezbollah attacks Israeli forces in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Hezbollah launched an explosive drone attack on Israeli military vehicles in southern Lebanon, escalating tensions despite the framework agreement and partial withdrawals. This incident underscored the fragile security situation and the ongoing conflict, reducing market confidence in a full Israeli withdrawal by the specified dates.
Israel rules out further withdrawals from Lebanon, seeks freedom of action
Israel declared it would not agree to additional withdrawals from Lebanon in upcoming negotiations, insisting on maintaining freedom of action in areas handed over to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This hardened stance further reduced market expectations for withdrawal by any near-term date.
Israel rules out additional withdrawals from southern Lebanon without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Israel declared it will not agree to any further withdrawals from southern Lebanon in upcoming US-mediated talks unless Hezbollah is disarmed and security arrangements are strengthened, signaling a firm stance against full withdrawal and maintaining military presence indefinitely.
Israel rules out further withdrawal from Lebanon, insists on 'freedom of action'
September 30 dips to 4%4%
Israel declared it would not agree to any additional withdrawals from Lebanon in upcoming negotiations and sought to maintain operational freedom in areas handed over to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This stance reinforced market pessimism about near-term full withdrawal.
Israel rules out additional withdrawals from southern Lebanon, insists on freedom of action
September 30 dips to 4%2%
Israeli officials declared they would not agree to any further withdrawals from Lebanon in upcoming negotiations, maintaining a security zone and operational freedom. This stance reinforced market expectations of no full withdrawal by the analyzed dates.
Lebanese army deploys in pilot zones following Israeli troop withdrawals
Lebanese forces began assuming security responsibility in southern Lebanon pilot zones after Israeli withdrawals under the US-brokered framework. This gradual implementation phase was a key test of the agreement, but full Israeli withdrawal remained conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, sustaining market caution.
Israel maintains refusal to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon despite talks
December 31 dips to 11%3%
Israeli officials reiterated that they would not withdraw fully from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, maintaining a security zone and limiting market optimism for a complete withdrawal by year-end.
Israel and Lebanon agree Lebanese army to move into positions vacated by IDF
Israel and Lebanon agreed that the Lebanese Armed Forces would take control of positions vacated by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon as part of a pilot program to ensure the area is free of Hezbollah fighters, reinforcing the phased withdrawal process.
Iran's Khamenei ties US-Iran peace deal to Israel ending attacks on Lebanon
Iran's supreme leader called for an absolute end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, linking the US-Iran peace deal to Israel's withdrawal. The statement highlighted the diplomatic impasse as Israel conditioned withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament, which Iran and Hezbollah rejected, sustaining market pessimism.
Israel bombs 21 Lebanese villages amid ceasefire, raising withdrawal doubts
December 31 dips to 10%2%
Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese villages during a ceasefire heightened tensions and cast doubt on the stability of the ceasefire and the likelihood of a full Israeli withdrawal, causing further market declines in withdrawal probabilities.
Israel carries out military strikes in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire deal
December 31 drops to 16%6%
Israeli army conducted attacks in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire and ongoing talks, undermining confidence in a full withdrawal and contributing to a decline in market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Israel carries out blasts in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire and ongoing talks
December 31 dips to 10%2%
Israeli military actions in southern Lebanon, including blasts and attacks, continued despite the ceasefire and withdrawal talks, undermining confidence in a full withdrawal and contributing to market pessimism.
Israeli officials reaffirm no full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 16%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and defense officials publicly stated that Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and contributing to market decline in withdrawal probabilities.
Lebanon PM affirms efforts for complete Israeli withdrawal amid troop redeployments
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated Lebanon's commitment to securing a complete Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon while visiting a village where Lebanese forces recently deployed. Despite Israeli troop withdrawals in pilot zones, Israel maintained presence in other areas, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about full withdrawal timing.
Lebanese army deploys to southern towns as Israeli troops adjust positions
Lebanese forces entered southern towns beyond pilot zones as Israeli troops adjusted their posture, described as redeployments rather than full withdrawals, maintaining uncertainty about complete Israeli exit.
Israel withdraws troops from Lebanon towns in test of truce
August 31 rises to 4%1%
Israeli troops withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon under the US-mediated ceasefire agreement, enabling Lebanese forces to deploy in pilot zones, though Israel described the moves as redeployments and maintained conditions on further withdrawal.
Lebanese army deploys to southern towns as part of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
Lebanese forces entered southern towns such as Srifa and Froun, previously occupied by Israeli troops, as part of the pilot zones under the US-brokered agreement. This transfer of control was coordinated with Washington and seen as a step toward reducing Israeli presence, though full withdrawal remained uncertain.
Lebanese Prime Minister hails start of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam visited one of the US-designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, declaring the start of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Lebanese troops began deploying and demining operations following Israeli troop drawdown, marking a significant milestone in the phased withdrawal process.
Three villages in southern Lebanon begin phased Israeli withdrawal under US supervision
Israeli forces started phased withdrawal from three southern Lebanese villages as part of the US-brokered agreement, marking the first tangible step toward withdrawal but insufficient for full exit, reflecting in low market prices for all dates.
US announces activation of pilot zones enabling Lebanese army to replace Israeli troops
The US announced the activation of pilot zones in southern Lebanon, designed to allow the Lebanese army to replace Israeli forces, reinforcing the phased withdrawal plan but with no full withdrawal yet, keeping market probabilities low.
Lebanese army deploys in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese forces began deploying in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh following Israeli withdrawal in accordance with the US-mediated agreement, demonstrating implementation of pilot zones but not full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
Lebanese President Aoun meets US President Trump to discuss Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 rises to 12%2%
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to present a plan for Hezbollah disarmament and to urge US pressure on Israel for full withdrawal, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate withdrawal announcement.
Lebanese army deploys to southern towns following Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Lebanese forces began entering southern Lebanese towns previously occupied by Israeli forces, marking a partial implementation of the withdrawal agreement. Despite this, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu described the moves as redeployments, not full withdrawal, sustaining market skepticism.
IDF begins withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones, Lebanese forces take control
August 31 dips to 1%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces started withdrawing from agreed pilot zones in southern Lebanon, allowing Lebanese forces to assume control. This orderly transfer was coordinated with Washington but did not constitute a full Israeli withdrawal, limiting market impact.
Lebanese army deploys to towns following Israeli withdrawal in pilot zones
August 31 dips to 1%2%
Lebanese Armed Forces entered towns such as Zawtar Al Gharbeye, Froun, and Srifa after Israeli troops withdrew, as part of the pilot zones agreement, testing Lebanon's ability to control areas previously occupied by Israel and to disarm Hezbollah, though Israeli forces remained ready to respond to threats.
Israeli forces begin limited withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Israeli troops withdrew from some southern Lebanese villages, handing over control to the Lebanese army as part of the pilot zones agreement. This limited withdrawal was symbolic and did not constitute a full withdrawal, thus insufficient to change market expectations significantly.
Lebanese army deploys in 'pilot zone' after Israeli withdrawal
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Following Israeli troop withdrawals under the US-brokered agreement, Lebanese army engineering units entered the village of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, marking a key step in the phased withdrawal and transfer of security responsibility to Lebanon.
Lebanese army deploys to southern towns following Israeli withdrawal
The Lebanese army began deploying in towns such as Srifa and Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after Israeli forces withdrew, marking the first implementation of the pilot zones. This was a key milestone but did not signal full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market confidence low.
Lebanese army begins deployment in southern pilot zones following Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 10%2%
Lebanese army troops started deploying in southern Lebanese towns such as Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after Israeli forces withdrew, in line with the US-brokered pilot zone plan, marking a symbolic step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty.
Israel withdraws troops from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
Israeli troops withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon as part of a US-mediated ceasefire agreement, allowing Lebanese forces to deploy in pilot zones. This partial withdrawal was seen as a test of the truce but did not signal full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market confidence low.
Israeli troops withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Israeli forces began withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon as Lebanese forces entered agreed-upon pilot zones, marking a partial implementation of the framework agreement. This move was seen as a test of the truce but did not indicate a full withdrawal, leading to only modest market optimism.
Lebanese army begins deployment in southern Lebanon pilot zones after Israeli withdrawal
July 31 plunges to 0%23%
The Lebanese army started deploying in southern Lebanon's pilot zones following Israeli withdrawal, marking the first test of the US-brokered framework agreement. This indicated partial Israeli pullback but not full withdrawal from Lebanon.
Lebanese army deploys in pilot zones following Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese forces began entering agreed-upon pilot zones previously used by the IDF, marking the first implementation of the US-brokered framework agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu described these moves as redeployments rather than full withdrawals, maintaining skepticism about complete withdrawal.
Lebanese army deploys to southern pilot zones as Israel withdraws troops
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese soldiers moved into southern pilot zones vacated by Israeli troops under the ceasefire deal, marking a symbolic step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty. However, Hezbollah rejected the plan, and Israel described the moves as redeployments, not full withdrawal, maintaining market doubts.
Lebanese army deploys to southern pilot zones following Israeli withdrawal
August 31 dips to 1%1%
The Lebanese army began deploying to southern pilot zones previously occupied by Israeli forces, marking the first implementation of the withdrawal agreement. This deployment was a key milestone but did not indicate full Israeli withdrawal, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel withdraws troops from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Israeli forces withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon as part of a US-mediated ceasefire agreement, allowing Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. This partial withdrawal was seen as a test of truce rather than full withdrawal, leading to slight market increases but overall skepticism remained.
Israeli troops withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire agreement
Israeli forces began withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon pilot zones, allowing Lebanese army deployment as part of the US-brokered framework, representing a limited but concrete step toward withdrawal.
Lebanese army deploys in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh following Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Following Israeli withdrawal from Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, the Lebanese army began deployment in the area as part of the pilot zone implementation, demonstrating progress in the phased withdrawal plan but not a full Israeli exit.
Israeli troops withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
August 31 dips to 5%3%
Israeli forces began withdrawing from some southern Lebanese villages as part of the ceasefire agreement, marking limited progress in the withdrawal process. However, this partial pullback was insufficient to change market expectations significantly for full withdrawal.
Lebanese army begins deployment in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh following Israeli withdrawal
September 30 rises to 7%1%
Lebanese forces started deploying in areas previously occupied by Israeli troops as part of the US-mediated agreement, marking a key step in the phased withdrawal process and slightly improving market confidence for withdrawal by later dates.
Israel withdraws troops from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Israeli troops withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon as part of a US-mediated ceasefire agreement, allowing Lebanese forces to assume control in designated pilot zones. This partial withdrawal did not constitute a full withdrawal announcement, limiting market impact.
Lebanese army deploys in southern towns following Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese forces began entering towns such as Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh and Srifa after Israeli troop withdrawals, marking partial implementation of the framework agreement. This was seen as a limited step, with Israel maintaining overall military presence in the region.
Lebanese army deploys in southern town after Israeli withdrawal in pilot zone
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Lebanese army troops began deploying in the southern town of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh following Israeli withdrawal, as part of the pilot zone program under the US-mediated framework agreement, signaling a step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty but with ongoing tensions and Israeli military presence nearby.
Lebanese army deploys to pilot zones as Israeli forces withdraw
The Lebanese army began entering agreed pilot zones previously used by the IDF, allowing Israeli forces to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon. This marked a significant step in implementing the framework agreement but full withdrawal remained conditional on Hezbollah disarmament.
Lebanese army deploys in pilot zones following Israeli withdrawal
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese army troops began deploying in pilot zones in southern Lebanon after Israeli forces withdrew, marking a significant step in the phased handover of control under the US-brokered framework agreement, though Israeli forces remain in other areas.
Lebanese army deploys in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh following Israeli withdrawal
September 30 dips to 4%2%
Lebanese forces began deploying in towns like Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after Israeli troops withdrew in accordance with the US-mediated agreement. This marked progress in the pilot zone implementation but did not fulfill conditions for full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market probabilities low.
Israel withdraws troops from Lebanon towns in test of truce
Israeli troops withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon under a US-mediated ceasefire agreement, allowing Lebanese army deployment and marking a significant step in the phased withdrawal process amid ongoing tensions with Hezbollah.
Lebanese forces enter pilot zones as Israeli troops withdraw
Lebanese military began taking control of pilot zones previously held by Israeli forces, signaling coordinated partial withdrawal but no full Israeli exit, maintaining market skepticism about complete withdrawal by deadlines.
US announces Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon has begun
September 30 dips to 4%1%
The US State Department announced that Israel had begun withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese army deployment following, signaling initial implementation of the phased withdrawal but limited in scope.
Israeli troops begin withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon under US-mediated ceasefire
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Israeli forces started withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon as part of a US-mediated ceasefire agreement, allowing Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. This partial withdrawal was seen as a test of the ceasefire but did not indicate full Israeli withdrawal, leading to modest market reaction.
US confirms Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon pilot zones has begun
The US State Department announced that implementation of Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon had started in three villages, signaling progress on the June framework deal. This news maintained low but positive market sentiment for withdrawal by later dates.
US announces Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon pilot zones has begun
The US State Department announced that implementation of the pilot zones for Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon had begun in three Lebanese villages, marking the start of partial Israeli troop pullback. This development slightly increased market confidence but did not signal full withdrawal, keeping prices low.
US announces Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon 'pilot zones' has begun
December 31 dips to 10%1%
The US State Department announced that Israel had started withdrawing from agreed pilot zones in southern Lebanon, allowing Lebanese forces to take control. This marked the first tangible step in implementing the framework agreement but did not indicate a full withdrawal.
Israel hands over sections of buffer zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese government
December 31 dips to 12%3%
The US announced that Israel handed over sections of the buffer zone occupied in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese government as per the U.S.-mediated deal. Lebanese army began deploying in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after Israeli withdrawal, marking a partial implementation of the framework agreement but not a full withdrawal.
Lebanese army deploys to southern town after Israeli withdrawal
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Following Israeli troop withdrawals, the Lebanese army moved into southern towns as part of the pilot program under the ceasefire agreement, but Hezbollah rejected the deal and Israel maintained a security zone, sustaining market skepticism about full withdrawal.
US announces Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon pilot zones has begun
August 31 dips to 4%2%
The US State Department announced that implementation of pilot zones for Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon had begun in three Lebanese villages, marking the first concrete step of phased withdrawal under the June framework. This raised cautious market optimism but fell short of full withdrawal.
US announces implementation of pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal in southern Lebanon
The US State Department announced that the implementation of pilot zones for Israeli military withdrawal had begun in three Lebanese villages, marking the first concrete step toward partial Israeli withdrawal under the framework agreement.
US says Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon 'pilot zones' has begun
August 31 dips to 1%2%
The US State Department announced that Israel had started withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese troops deploying to these areas, signaling progress in the phased withdrawal under the US-mediated agreement.
US says Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon pilot zones has begun
December 31 plunges to 14%23%
The US announced that Israeli forces have started withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces moving in. This marked the first concrete implementation of the June framework agreement, but full withdrawal remained uncertain, reflected in low market prices.
US confirms Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon pilot zones has begun
July 31 dips to 0%3%
The US State Department confirmed that Israel had started withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking progress on the framework but not a full withdrawal, which kept market prices near zero for July 31 resolution.
Lebanese President Aoun and US Secretary Rubio agree on need for full Israeli withdrawal
During talks in Washington, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed on the importance of full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and urged implementation of the framework agreement, providing diplomatic support but no immediate withdrawal timeline, causing minor market fluctuations.
Lebanese President Aoun and US Secretary Rubio agree on need for full Israeli withdrawal
September 30 rises to 6%1%
During talks in Washington, Lebanese President Aoun and US Secretary of State Rubio agreed on the importance of full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and urged implementation of the US-brokered framework agreement, supporting the phased withdrawal process.
Israeli Defense Minister reaffirms troops will remain indefinitely in Lebanon security zones
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israeli forces would stay indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting withdrawal despite US pressure, causing market confidence in withdrawal by August 31 to plummet.
Israel reaffirms troops will remain in Lebanon security zones despite US pressure
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain in security zones inside Lebanon, rejecting US calls for withdrawal and signaling continued military presence, which further reduced market expectations for withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israel reaffirms troops will remain in Lebanon security zones indefinitely
September 30 dips to 7%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain in security zones inside Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting calls for withdrawal and emphasizing the necessity of maintaining border security. This hardened stance further reduced market expectations for withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel agrees to begin withdrawal from two Lebanon pilot zones, Lebanese army to deploy
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. This partial withdrawal was a test of the framework agreement but did not indicate full withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
US announces Israel agreed to withdraw from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
September 30 dips to 6%1%
The US State Department reported that Israel agreed to withdraw from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon as part of the framework agreement, signaling initial implementation steps but not full withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
Israel agrees to withdraw from two Lebanon pilot zones, US official says
August 31 dips to 7%1%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israel would begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. This was a positive development for partial withdrawal but full withdrawal remained conditional on Hezbollah disarmament.
US official says Israel to begin withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones soon
December 31 dips to 13%4%
A US official announced that Israel agreed to begin withdrawing troops from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling progress but no full withdrawal announcement, causing a slight market uptick followed by decline.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met in Beirut to work out implementation mechanisms for the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement. The talks focused on establishing pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal, but Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and Israeli officials maintained forces would remain as long as Hezbollah was armed.
Netanyahu reiterates Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to counter Hezbollah, effectively ruling out full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament. This stance contributed to the market's collapse in probability for all withdrawal dates.
Israeli envoy states withdrawal depends on Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter emphasized that the withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones depends on Hezbollah being removed and Lebanese forces taking control, signaling conditional and incomplete withdrawal, which suppressed market optimism for full withdrawal by year-end.
US officials confirm steps toward implementing Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Following the Rome talks, US officials confirmed progress toward implementing the withdrawal agreement, with Israeli forces set to pull back from pilot zones and Lebanese forces to take control, but no full withdrawal announcement was made, keeping market prices near lows.
Lebanese army begins deployment in southern Lebanon pilot zones after Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 22%1%
Lebanese Armed Forces started deploying in southern Lebanese towns such as Zawtar Al Gharbiya following Israeli withdrawal, marking the first implementation step of the framework agreement and slightly supporting market optimism for withdrawal by December 31.
US official confirms Israel to begin withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones soon
December 31 dips to 12%1%
A US State Department official announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with Lebanese army deployment to vacated areas. Despite this, no official Israeli announcement of full withdrawal was made, keeping market prices low.
Lebanese sources report Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones could begin within hours
Reports from Lebanese officials indicated preparations for Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones could start imminently, but Israel denied the report, reflecting ongoing ambiguity and no confirmed full withdrawal announcement.
Israel agrees to withdraw military from two Lebanon pilot zones, U.S. official says
Israeli forces agreed to begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. Withdrawal depends on Hezbollah's removal and Lebanese forces' control, indicating a conditional and phased process rather than full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel end sixth round of US-brokered talks on withdrawal
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Lebanese and Israeli officials concluded productive US-mediated talks focusing on pilot zone withdrawals, agreeing on structure and guidelines for implementation. Despite progress, the talks underscored ongoing challenges, keeping market probabilities low for full withdrawal by September.
Israel and Lebanon agree to begin withdrawing forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon
September 30 dips to 5%2%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Israel and Lebanon agreed on the structure and guidelines for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones, marking the first concrete step toward implementing the framework agreement but without a full withdrawal timeline.
US announces steps toward implementing pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel took steps to implement pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would assume control, indicating progress but no full withdrawal yet.
U.S. official says Israel agrees to withdraw troops from Lebanon pilot zones in coming days
On July 15, a U.S. official announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. Despite this, no official Israeli announcement of full withdrawal was made, keeping market prices low.
Israel agrees to withdraw from two Lebanon pilot zones, US official says
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Israeli forces agreed to begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. This partial withdrawal was a test of the framework agreement but did not signal a full withdrawal, keeping market expectations low.
Lebanese sources report imminent Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones
August 31 dips to 2%2%
Reports emerged that Israeli troop withdrawal from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon could begin within hours as part of a ceasefire agreement, raising short-term hopes for progress despite Israeli denials of a full withdrawal plan.
Lebanon and Israel agree on structure for withdrawal from pilot zones in Rome talks
Lebanese and Israeli delegations concluded US-mediated talks in Rome, agreeing on the structure and guidelines for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon. Despite this progress, Israel reiterated its intention to maintain broader security zones indefinitely, limiting market optimism for a full withdrawal by earlier dates.
Israeli envoy confirms IDF to begin withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones soon
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter stated that Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, contingent on Hezbollah's removal and Lebanese army control. This statement did not indicate full withdrawal, keeping market probabilities near historic lows.
Israel and Lebanon agree to launch pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal in southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 3%6%
In Rome talks, Israel and Lebanon agreed on the structure and guidelines for pilot zones where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese Armed Forces would take control, advancing the US-brokered framework. However, the withdrawal remained conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah rejected.
Lebanese sources report Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones could begin within hours
Lebanese sources on July 15 reported major progress in ceasefire negotiations in Rome, claiming Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones could begin within hours as a goodwill gesture. Israel denied the report, and no official announcement followed, contributing to market uncertainty and low prices.
Israel agrees to withdraw IDF from two Lebanon pilot zones, Lebanese army to deploy
September 30 dips to 6%2%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to the vacated areas, marking the start of phased withdrawal under the framework agreement.
US announces steps toward implementing Israeli withdrawal pilot zones in Lebanon
September 30 dips to 6%4%
After US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel took steps toward implementing pilot zones where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would assume control. This progress was seen as a positive but partial step, maintaining low market probabilities for full withdrawal by the end of August or September.
US State Department reports Israel agreed to withdraw from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
August 31 rises to 4%1%
The US State Department announced that Israel had agreed to begin withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the first concrete step in implementing the June framework agreement. This partial withdrawal increased market confidence slightly but did not indicate full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 12%5%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the implementation of pilot zones where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control, marking progress in the phased withdrawal plan but with ongoing challenges.
Reports of imminent Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones in Lebanon
July 31 rises to 3%1%
Lebanese sources reported major progress in ceasefire talks with Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones expected imminently. This raised short-term hopes for withdrawal, causing minor market upticks, though full withdrawal remained uncertain.
Israel agrees to withdraw military from two Lebanon pilot zones, U.S. official says
Israel agreed to begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas, marking a partial implementation of the US-mediated framework but contingent on Hezbollah's removal.
Reports of imminent Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones
Lebanese sources reported preparations for Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon could begin within hours as a goodwill gesture, briefly raising market hopes for partial withdrawal progress.
Israel and Lebanon agree to begin withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Israel and Lebanon agreed to start withdrawing Israeli forces from pilot zones, with Lebanese army deployment planned. This was a concrete step but still far from full withdrawal, maintaining market skepticism.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops in southern Lebanon and reaffirmed that Israeli forces will remain in the security zone for as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, effectively ruling out a full withdrawal by the market's resolution dates. This solidified market expectations of a 'No' outcome for withdrawal by the specified deadlines.
Israel agrees to begin withdrawal from two Lebanon pilot zones
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. This partial withdrawal was seen as a test of the framework agreement but did not indicate full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
Lebanon and Israel conclude US-brokered talks, progress on pilot zones withdrawal
September 30 drops to 6%7%
After two days of US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for implementing pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control, marking progress toward phased withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon agree to begin withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 17%5%
A U.S. official confirmed that Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones with Lebanese army deployment, marking progress but still short of full withdrawal, causing modest market price declines.
Israel and Lebanon agree on implementation plan for withdrawal from pilot zones
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Israel and Lebanon agreed on the structure and guidelines for implementing the withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, a key step toward phased Israeli withdrawal under the June 26 framework.
Israel agrees to withdraw troops from two Lebanon pilot zones, US official says
September 30 dips to 6%3%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas, signaling initial implementation of the framework agreement.
Lebanon and Israel end sixth round of US-brokered talks on pilot zone withdrawal
Lebanese and Israeli officials concluded a US-mediated round of talks agreeing on the structure and guidelines for Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking a concrete step toward implementation and slightly improving market sentiment.
Israel signals extended occupation of southern Lebanon despite withdrawal talks
December 31 drops to 12%10%
Israeli officials publicly stated that their forces would remain in a security zone in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, rejecting a full withdrawal. This stance, coupled with Hezbollah's rejection of the framework, kept market prices for full withdrawal near zero by late July and beyond.
US State Department reports Israel agrees to withdraw from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 13%4%
The US State Department announced that Israel agreed to withdraw from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the beginning of partial troop withdrawals and slightly improving market sentiment for later withdrawal dates.
Lebanese President demands immediate Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones before further talks
July 31 drops to 0%5%
Ahead of the Rome talks, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun instructed the Lebanese delegation to demand immediate Israeli withdrawal from the pilot zones before continuing discussions. This stance highlighted ongoing tensions and delays in implementation, contributing to the market's low confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of July or later dates.
US official confirms Israel to begin withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones in coming days
July 31 drops to 0%5%
A US State Department official announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed that Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon soon, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. This was the first concrete step toward implementing the framework but did not indicate a full withdrawal, keeping market prices near zero for July 31 and very low for later dates.
Lebanon and Israel take steps to implement withdrawal pilot zones in southern Lebanon
September 30 dips to 4%1%
After US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for pilot zones where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control, marking progress in phased withdrawal but not full exit, keeping market prices low.
Lebanon and Israel conclude sixth round of US-brokered talks on pilot zone withdrawal
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Lebanese and Israeli officials ended productive US-mediated talks focusing on establishing pilot zones in southern Lebanon for Israeli withdrawal. The agreement's implementation phase was set to begin soon, but no timetable for full withdrawal was established, maintaining cautious market sentiment.
US State Department announces Israel agreed to withdraw from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 16%1%
The US State Department reported that Israel agreed to begin withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, signaling initial implementation of the framework agreement and causing a slight market uptick in withdrawal probability.
Lebanon and Israel move toward implementing withdrawal agreement with pilot zones
December 31 dips to 10%2%
After US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control, marking progress in implementing the June 26 framework but with no clear timeline for full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel conclude US-mediated talks in Rome, agree on pilot zone withdrawal structure
December 31 rises to 14%2%
Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, moving closer to implementing the framework agreement but full withdrawal remained conditional on Hezbollah disarmament.
Israel agrees to withdraw from two Lebanon pilot zones, contingent on Hezbollah removal
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to vacated areas. Withdrawal was contingent on Hezbollah's removal, reflecting ongoing conditions delaying full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel move toward implementing withdrawal agreement: U.S. officials
September 30 dips to 7%2%
After U.S.-brokered talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel took steps toward implementing 'pilot zones' in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control. However, Hezbollah opposed the agreement and Israeli officials planned extended occupation, limiting market optimism.
Lebanon and Israel resume talks in Rome on troop withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 rises to 13%1%
Lebanese and Israeli officials resumed US-mediated talks in Rome to establish a practical sequence for ending the conflict, withdrawing Israeli forces from the south, and expanding Lebanese army control. The talks focused on pilot zones and conditions for withdrawal, but no full withdrawal was announced, keeping market prices low.
Lebanon and Israel conclude U.S.-brokered talks in Rome on pilot zone withdrawal structure
July 31 drops to 1%7%
Lebanon and Israel concluded two days of U.S.-brokered talks in Rome on July 14, agreeing on the structure and guidelines for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones. However, Israeli defense officials stated troops would remain indefinitely in broader security zones, dampening market expectations for full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing withdrawal pilot zones after US-mediated talks
December 31 rises to 14%2%
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel advanced plans to implement pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control. However, disagreements on zone locations and Hezbollah opposition slowed progress, keeping market confidence low for near-term full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing withdrawal pilot zones after US-mediated talks in Rome
September 30 dips to 5%2%
Following two days of US-mediated talks, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for the pilot zone process, moving toward implementation. However, no immediate withdrawal announcement was made, and market prices remained low.
Lebanon and Israel conclude US-brokered talks agreeing on pilot zone withdrawal structure
July 31 dips to 5%4%
After two days of talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, moving the process toward implementation. However, the withdrawal remained limited and conditional, keeping market prices low for full withdrawal by the end of July and later dates.
US President Trump urges Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Lebanon and Syria
During a phone call, US President Donald Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to redeploy troops from southern Lebanon and Syria to reduce tensions. Netanyahu resisted, citing security needs. This highlighted US pressure but also Israeli reluctance, maintaining market uncertainty about withdrawal timing.
Lebanon and Israel hold US-mediated talks in Rome to implement withdrawal agreement
December 31 drops to 12%10%
After two days of US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel took steps toward implementing pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and hand over control to the Lebanese army. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun instructed the delegation to demand immediate Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones before further discussions, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges and market skepticism.
Lebanese and Israeli delegations hold US-mediated talks in Rome on withdrawal implementation
December 31 dips to 17%4%
Lebanese and Israeli officials met in Rome to discuss implementing the framework agreement, focusing on pilot zones and Lebanese demands for immediate Israeli withdrawal, but no withdrawal announcement was made, maintaining low market prices.
Lebanon and Israel hold US-mediated talks on implementing withdrawal pilot zones
September 30 dips to 5%2%
Lebanese and Israeli officials met in Rome for US-brokered talks to finalize and implement the pilot zone withdrawal plan. The talks were described as productive, but no full withdrawal announcement was made, maintaining market skepticism and low prices.
Lebanon and Israel conclude U.S.-brokered talks on pilot zone withdrawals in Rome
September 30 dips to 5%4%
After two days of U.S.-mediated talks, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure for withdrawing Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking progress toward partial withdrawal.
Israel signals readiness to advance withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones as Rome talks begin
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar stated Israel's preparedness to move forward with withdrawing from two pilot areas in southern Lebanon during US-mediated talks in Rome. This indicated diplomatic progress but no full withdrawal announcement, keeping market prices low.
Lebanon and Israel hold talks in Rome on implementing framework deal
September 30 drops to 6%7%
Lebanese and Israeli delegations met in Rome to discuss implementation of the June framework agreement, focusing on mechanisms for Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment. The talks reflected ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate full withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel end sixth round of US-brokered talks with progress on pilot zone withdrawal
December 31 drops to 12%8%
The sixth round of US-mediated talks ended with progress on a plan for Israel to withdraw from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, though full withdrawal remained uncertain. This development was seen as positive but insufficient for a full withdrawal, contributing to low market prices.
US to oversee phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon pilot zones
US and Lebanese officials confirmed that Washington would supervise the gradual Israeli military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon under the June 26 framework agreement. This marked the beginning of a phased withdrawal but fell short of a full withdrawal announcement, keeping market prices low.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
December 31 drops to 12%5%
Following the framework agreement, US and Lebanese military delegations met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for Israeli withdrawal from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon. The talks highlighted challenges in implementation and Hezbollah's rejection of the deal, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal timelines.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
August 31 dips to 1%4%
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement, focusing on establishing pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal. No timetable was set, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal.
US and Lebanese military delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
August 31 dips to 5%1%
US and Lebanese military officials met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement, focusing on establishing pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal, signaling progress but no full withdrawal announcement.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for the first phase of Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones, but no timetable was set, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and limiting market confidence.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
September 30 drops to 7%5%
Following the June framework agreement, US and Lebanese officials met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for Israeli withdrawal from designated pilot zones. The talks highlighted challenges in implementation and lack of a fixed timetable, maintaining market uncertainty about withdrawal progress.
U.S. and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
August 31 dips to 5%3%
On July 11, 2026, U.S. and Lebanese military delegations met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the U.S.-brokered framework agreement. Discussions focused on establishing pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal, but no withdrawal announcement was made, maintaining market skepticism.
US military delegation meets Lebanese army to discuss Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%2%
A US military delegation met with Lebanon’s army to discuss mechanisms for implementing Israeli withdrawal from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, signaling progress in the phased withdrawal plan but with no set timetable, maintaining market uncertainty.
Israeli Chief of Staff rules out Hezbollah disarmament, impacting withdrawal odds
September 30 dips to 10%2%
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there is no disarmament goal or ceasefire on the northern front, indicating continued military presence and reducing market confidence in withdrawal by June 30, 2026.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones and lead new talks
December 31 drops to 12%5%
The US announced it would guide the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon and lead further negotiations, but no timetable for full withdrawal was set, maintaining market pessimism about a complete withdrawal by the end of 2026.
US and Lebanese officials confirm US-supervised gradual Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
US and Lebanese officials announced that Washington would supervise the phased Israeli military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking a concrete step toward withdrawal and raising market hopes for further troop reductions.
Reports confirm Israel does not intend full withdrawal from Lebanon without Hezbollah disarmament
Reports indicated Israel will maintain a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and link any full withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, which is unlikely soon, reducing market expectations for a complete withdrawal by year-end.
Israel publicly states no intention for full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
On July 10, 2026, Israeli government sources publicly declared that Israel does not intend to fully withdraw from Lebanon unless Hezbollah is disarmed, maintaining a security zone. This official position further diminished market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel continues military presence in southern Lebanon amid stalled withdrawal talks
Despite the framework agreement, Israeli officials including Netanyahu reaffirmed that forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while Hezbollah rejects the deal, maintaining a stalemate and low market confidence in withdrawal by year-end.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon withdrawal deal, Netanyahu vows to stay
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the US-mediated framework linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, while Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's intention to remain in southern Lebanon until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated. This hardened the market's view against a full withdrawal by July 31.
Israel begins gradual withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones under US supervision
July 31 dips to 2%4%
The US confirmed it would supervise Israel's phased military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the start of implementation of the June 26 framework. This development slightly increased market confidence in partial withdrawal progress.
US official confirms Israel will return first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Beirut
August 31 dips to 8%1%
A US official announced that Israel would return the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese control within days, providing a concrete timetable for partial withdrawal under the June framework agreement. This raised market hopes for progress.
US official indicates IDF troops to withdraw from Lebanon pilot zones soon
July 31 dips to 0%1%
A US official announced that Israeli Defense Forces would begin withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, signaling initial implementation of the framework agreement and causing slight market optimism for partial withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli army preparing to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon within days
August 31 dips to 8%1%
Reports indicated that the Israeli army was preparing to withdraw from some pilot areas in southern Lebanon in parallel with upcoming Lebanon-Israel talks in Rome, raising cautious market optimism.
US official confirms imminent Israeli withdrawal from first Lebanon pilot zone
December 31 rises to 23%1%
A US administration official announced that Israel would return the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese control within days, providing a concrete timetable and boosting market confidence slightly for the December 31 outcome.
Israeli government states no full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Israeli officials publicly declared that full withdrawal from Lebanon would not occur unless Hezbollah was disarmed, reinforcing market skepticism and pushing probabilities lower across all outcomes.
US official confirms Israel to return first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese control
A US official confirmed that Israel would return the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese government control within days, marking the first concrete timetable for withdrawal under the framework agreement, which initially raised market hopes.
Israel begins withdrawal from first Lebanon pilot zone under US-brokered deal
December 31 dips to 18%4%
US officials confirmed that Israel would return the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon to Lebanese control within days, marking the start of the phased withdrawal outlined in the June 26 agreement. This concrete timetable raised hopes for progress but full withdrawal remained contingent on Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli army prepares to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon within days
August 31 rises to 9%1%
Reports emerged that the Israeli army was preparing to withdraw from some pilot areas in southern Lebanon in parallel with ongoing negotiations in Rome. This raised market hopes for imminent partial withdrawal, causing some price stabilization and minor increases.
Israel begins phased withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones under US supervision
August 31 drops to 4%6%
Israel started a phased military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces taking control. This marked the first concrete implementation step of the June framework agreement but did not signal a full withdrawal, keeping market confidence low.
Israel begins gradual withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones under U.S. supervision
August 31 dips to 4%4%
Israel started the phased military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces taking control, marking the first concrete implementation step of the June framework.
US official confirms Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones to begin soon
August 31 drops to 3%5%
US and Lebanese officials announced that Washington would supervise the gradual Israeli military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the start of phased withdrawal under the June 26 framework agreement.
US delegation arrives in Lebanon to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
September 30 dips to 11%2%
A US military delegation met with Lebanon's army to discuss implementing Israel's withdrawal from pilot zones, signaling progress but no firm timeline, which maintained market uncertainty.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in Lebanon
December 31 dips to 18%4%
A US military delegation was announced to arrive in Beirut to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from designated pilot zones, emphasizing the gradual and conditional nature of the withdrawal, which kept market prices low for full withdrawal by year-end.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones; talks to continue
December 31 drops to 12%10%
US officials announced they would oversee gradual Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, but emphasized withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, with no set timetable, maintaining market pessimism about full withdrawal by deadlines.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon pilot zones
September 30 dips to 12%1%
US and Lebanese officials confirmed that Washington would supervise the gradual Israeli military pullback from designated pilot zones under the June 26 framework, marking the start of actual withdrawal steps and reducing market optimism about full withdrawal by earlier dates.
US official says Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zone imminent
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US official announced that Israel's withdrawal from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon would begin within days, signaling initial implementation of the June framework but not a full withdrawal, which kept market prices low.
US delegation arrives in Lebanon to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US military delegation visited Lebanon to discuss the implementation of the withdrawal from designated pilot zones, marking progress toward the phased withdrawal but with no set timetable. This maintained market uncertainty and low probabilities for full withdrawal by the market's key dates.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal implementation in Lebanon
A US military delegation was expected to arrive in Beirut to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from pilot zones, indicating ongoing but slow progress. The agreement still tied withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, limiting market optimism.
US President Trump urges Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Lebanon and Syria
July 31 dips to 0%1%
On July 9, President Trump urged Netanyahu to redeploy Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and Syria to reduce tensions. Netanyahu resisted, citing security needs and the importance of maintaining buffer zones. This reinforced market skepticism about near-term withdrawal, pushing prices for July and August dates to near zero.
US official says Israeli withdrawal from first pilot zone in southern Lebanon imminent
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
A US official announced that Israel's withdrawal from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon would begin within days, despite Lebanon's refusal to attend further talks until withdrawal occurs, reflecting ongoing delays and conditional progress.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%2%
On July 9, 2026, Lebanese and US officials announced that the United States would oversee the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the first withdrawal expected within days. However, no timeline was given for a full withdrawal, keeping market expectations low for complete Israeli exit by the deadlines.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
September 30 rises to 7%2%
A US military delegation was expected to arrive in Lebanon to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from pilot zones, reinforcing the gradual nature of the withdrawal process and the conditionality on Hezbollah disarmament.
Netanyahu reiterates Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon as long as necessary
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in the security zone in southern Lebanon for as long as needed to guarantee northern Israeli communities' security, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and maintaining market skepticism.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones; talks to continue in Rome
On July 9, US officials announced that American military delegations would oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from the pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with further technical talks scheduled in Rome. However, no timeline for full withdrawal was set, maintaining market doubts about a complete exit by July 31 or later.
Lebanon demands Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones before next peace talks
September 30 rises to 7%1%
Lebanese officials demanded Israel fulfill its pledge to withdraw from two pilot zones and hand them over to the Lebanese military before participating in upcoming peace talks, highlighting ongoing disputes and delaying progress toward full withdrawal.
US President Trump urges Israel to withdraw troops from Lebanon and Syria
July 31 drops to 1%5%
During a phone call, US President Trump urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to redeploy Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and Syria to reduce tensions. Netanyahu resisted, citing security concerns, reinforcing market doubts about near-term withdrawal.
U.S.-Iran peace deal collapses amid Persian Gulf airstrikes
December 31 dips to 12%2%
The collapse of the U.S.-Iran Islamabad MOU peace deal and subsequent military escalation increased regional instability, reducing the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by any date.
Israeli attack on vehicle in Lebanon kills at least four amid ongoing strikes
Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel continued launching strikes on southern Lebanon, including an attack killing at least four people. This ongoing military activity sustained market skepticism about a full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israel and Lebanon hold US-mediated talks on trial withdrawal from two border villages
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Israeli and Lebanese military officers began US-mediated talks to establish criteria for a Hezbollah-free zone ahead of a planned trial withdrawal from two villages, marking the start of the phased withdrawal process under the framework agreement.
Israeli and Lebanese military begin US-mediated talks on criteria for Hezbollah-free zones
August 31 plunges to 3%26%
US-mediated talks started between Israeli and Lebanese military officers to define criteria for Hezbollah-free zones ahead of a planned trial Israeli withdrawal from two villages, indicating slow progress and conditional withdrawal plans.
Israel and Lebanon begin US-mediated talks on trial withdrawal from two southern villages
December 31 dips to 16%1%
Israeli and Lebanese military officers started US-mediated talks to establish criteria for a Hezbollah-free zone ahead of a planned trial Israeli withdrawal from two villages in southern Lebanon. Israel awaited confirmation from Lebanese forces and US Central Command before beginning withdrawal, signaling initial steps but no actual withdrawal yet, which kept market optimism moderate.
IDF strikes several Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
The IDF announced another round of strikes on Hezbollah positions, confirming ongoing offensive operations and keeping the market at the lowest observed Yes level (1%).
Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire agreement
Israel continued intermittent military strikes targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon despite a two-week-old ceasefire, indicating ongoing hostilities and undermining confidence in a full withdrawal by the market deadlines.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered withdrawal deal; Netanyahu vows to stay until disarmament
July 31 dips to 4%2%
Hezbollah's rejection of the withdrawal framework and Netanyahu's commitment to maintain Israeli forces until Hezbollah is disarmed reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the deadlines.
Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon; conflict expands with strikes near Golan Heights
July 31 plunges to 0%23%
Reports indicated Israel's refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon and ongoing military operations, with the framework agreement tied to Hezbollah's disarmament creating a deadlock. This reinforced market pessimism about withdrawal by early dates.
Netanyahu declares Israel will maintain presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 drops to 12%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary,' rejecting any immediate withdrawal and emphasizing security concerns related to Hezbollah. This hardened stance significantly reduced market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
December 31 dips to 17%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, reinforcing the conditional nature of withdrawal and further lowering market confidence in a full withdrawal by any date in 2026.
Israel refuses full withdrawal from Lebanon, ties exit to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Reports highlighted Israel's stance that withdrawal from Lebanon would only occur after Hezbollah is disarmed, making a full and immediate withdrawal unlikely and depressing market confidence in earlier withdrawal dates.
Israel signals refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon, tying withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 17%4%
Reports indicated that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon was conditional on Hezbollah's disarmament, a nearly impossible condition to fulfill quickly. Israeli officials stated they would maintain a security zone and not withdraw unconditionally, dampening market expectations for a full withdrawal soon.
Netanyahu states Israel will maintain occupation in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 1%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israel will maintain its occupation in southern Lebanon and will not withdraw until Hezbollah is disarmed, reinforcing the deadlock and diminishing market expectations for withdrawal by July 31 or earlier.
Israel refuses full withdrawal, ties exit to Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 dips to 5%3%
Reports highlighted Israel's refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon without Hezbollah's disarmament, creating a deadlock and diminishing market confidence in a complete withdrawal by the deadlines.
Netanyahu reiterates Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security zone as long as Hezbollah is armed
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon to protect northern communities until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism.
Israeli Chief of Staff rules out disarmament, impacting Lebanon withdrawal odds
December 31 drops to 12%12%
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there is no disarmament goal or ceasefire on the northern front, emphasizing ongoing military operations against Hezbollah. This statement decreased the likelihood of a military withdrawal from Lebanon by the end of June 2026, reflected in market pricing.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 drops to 12%12%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary,' rejecting any precondition for withdrawal and reinforcing market pessimism about near-term exit.
Israel confirms refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon amid ongoing threats
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, stated Israel would not withdraw from southern Lebanon while Hezbollah remains a threat, signaling that any withdrawal would be conditional and not immediate, causing market confidence to decline further.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security zone until Hezbollah threat eliminated
In early July, Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israeli forces would stay in the southern Lebanon security zone "for as long as necessary" to protect northern Israeli communities until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and further depressing market prices.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon talks and withdrawal agreement
Hezbollah, not party to the negotiations, rejected the framework agreement and Israel's partial withdrawal, maintaining opposition to Israeli presence and complicating prospects for full withdrawal, reinforcing market skepticism.
Analysis suggests Israel will not fully withdraw from Lebanon soon
August 31 dips to 3%1%
An analysis published on July 5, 2026, indicated that Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is conditional and not immediate, tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament, which is unlikely to happen quickly. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term deadlines.
Israel affirms continued occupation of southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah opposition
December 31 dips to 16%3%
In early July, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah posed a threat, while Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered withdrawal deal, creating a stalemate that limited prospects for full Israeli withdrawal within the market timeframe.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon security zone
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops and stated that Israeli forces would stay in the security zone as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, effectively ruling out a full withdrawal in the near term. This reinforced market expectations of a prolonged Israeli presence.
Analysis: Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Reports highlighted Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon, linking withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament and ongoing military actions, suggesting a protracted conflict and diminishing likelihood of full withdrawal by market dates.
Israeli leadership rejects additional withdrawals, vows to maintain occupation
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any immediate or unconditional withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israel rejects full withdrawal, ties it to Hezbollah disarmament; Hezbollah rejects US deal
Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu, reiterated that Israeli forces would not withdraw fully from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework agreement, calling it humiliating and null, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and contributing to market price declines.
Israel refuses full withdrawal, ties pullback to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 16%7%
Reports indicated Israel would not fully withdraw from Lebanon until Hezbollah was disarmed, creating a deadlock and diminishing market expectations for a full withdrawal by any near-term date.
Reports of Israeli pre-selling land in occupied southern Lebanon and calls for long-term control
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Reports emerged that Israel was pre-selling land in occupied southern Lebanese areas and officials advocated for maintaining long-term control, signaling a de facto extension of occupation. This diminished market expectations for a full withdrawal by any of the specified dates.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon withdrawal deal, demands full ceasefire and withdrawal
December 31 drops to 16%7%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the partial withdrawal agreement, demanding a full ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal, increasing uncertainty and reducing market confidence in any near-term full withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered withdrawal deal; Netanyahu vows to stay until disarmament
December 31 drops to 11%11%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the US-brokered deal for Israeli withdrawal, while Israeli leadership reaffirmed their presence in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. This stalemate maintained market skepticism about a full Israeli withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu affirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah threat eliminated
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited IDF troops and reiterated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect Israeli communities, conditioning withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah refuses. This hardened stance further reduced market expectations of withdrawal by near-term dates.
Netanyahu states Israel will maintain occupation and some villages seek annexation
December 31 dips to 17%1%
Netanyahu announced Israel's intention to maintain occupation in southern Lebanon and mentioned some Christian-majority villages requested annexation for protection, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and further reducing market optimism.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered withdrawal deal; Netanyahu vows to stay
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Hezbollah rejected the US framework tying Israeli withdrawal to its disarmament, while Netanyahu reaffirmed Israeli forces would remain until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, further reducing market confidence in withdrawal by deadlines.
Reports of US coordination advancing Israeli withdrawal preparations in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 17%5%
Israeli media reported progress in preparations for the next phase of Israeli withdrawal, with US coordination to establish a ceasefire monitoring mechanism and transfer security responsibilities to the Lebanese Army. This suggested a gradual implementation but also highlighted delays due to Hezbollah's opposition, tempering market optimism.
Netanyahu states Israel will maintain occupation in southern Lebanon indefinitely
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary,' rejecting any immediate withdrawal and solidifying market pessimism about withdrawal by July and August deadlines.
Netanyahu insists Israeli troops will stay until Hezbollah is disarmed
Netanyahu reiterated that Israeli forces will remain in the security zone until a comprehensive disarmament of Hezbollah is achieved, cementing the market’s low expectations for any withdrawal before the end‑year deadlines.
Analysis suggests Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah disarmament, unlikely soon
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Reports highlighted that Israel’s withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah’s disarmament and threat elimination, making immediate full withdrawal improbable. This analysis contributed to further market price declines.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon "as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal and sharply reducing market confidence in withdrawal by any near-term date.
Israel affirms it will maintain military presence in southern Lebanon despite agreement
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and reducing market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Israel rejects immediate withdrawal, ties pullout to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 18%4%
Israel clarified that withdrawal from southern Lebanon would only occur after Hezbollah was disarmed and its infrastructure dismantled, a condition seen as difficult to fulfill quickly. This stance reduced market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Israel refuses to fully withdraw from Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
August 31 drops to 3%5%
Reports indicated Israel would not withdraw unconditionally and that the withdrawal was tied to Hezbollah disarmament, with continued military strikes in the region. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the deadlines.
Netanyahu says some Christian-majority villages in southern Lebanon requested annexation by Israel
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that certain Christian-majority villages in southern Lebanon sought annexation by Israel for protection from Hezbollah, indicating ongoing Israeli presence and complicating prospects for full withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward.
Reports confirm Israel will not fully withdraw from Lebanon, tying withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament
July 31 dips to 1%1%
By early July, reports indicated Israel's withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah's disarmament, a nearly impossible condition, and Israeli officials reiterated no full withdrawal plans, pushing market prices to near zero for earlier withdrawal dates.
Israel maintains refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Reports indicated Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is conditional and tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament, a condition unlikely to be met quickly. Israel continues military operations and occupation, signaling no imminent full withdrawal, which aligns with the market's very low probability for withdrawal by July 31.
Israel refuses to withdraw fully from Lebanon; conflict expands
August 31 drops to 8%6%
Reports indicated Israel's refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon, linking withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, which is unlikely soon. This conditional and delayed withdrawal stance led to further market declines in the probability of full withdrawal by the deadlines.
US advances coordination on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 17%1%
Reports indicated progress in preparations for the next phase of Israeli withdrawal, with US involvement in coordinating ceasefire monitoring and transferring security responsibilities to the Lebanese Army, signaling initial steps toward implementing the framework agreement.
Israel confirms no immediate withdrawal, plans to maintain occupation indefinitely
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no imminent withdrawal and reducing market confidence.
Netanyahu states Israeli forces will not withdraw while Hezbollah remains armed
July 31 dips to 1%3%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli troops would stay in Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is armed, further diminishing market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Lebanon-Israel deal criticized by rights groups for betraying war victims
Human rights groups criticized the Lebanon-Israel framework agreement for failing to ensure Israeli withdrawal and betraying victims of war crimes. This criticism reflected ongoing doubts about the deal's effectiveness and the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
Reports of delays in Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon due to security and verification concerns
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Negotiations backed by international mediators indicated delays in the planned Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, citing trust and verification issues related to Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment, reinforcing market doubts about timely withdrawal.
Israel delays withdrawal from Lebanon amid trust and verification concerns
Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon faced delays due to mutual distrust and the need for robust verification mechanisms before any troop withdrawals, further reducing market confidence in a timely Israeli exit.
Negotiations Indicate Delays in Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31 dips to 7%1%
Recent negotiations backed by international mediators revealed delays in the planned Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Concerns over trust, verification, Hezbollah's disarmament, and security guarantees have postponed the phased withdrawal outlined in the June 26 framework, further reducing market confidence in withdrawal by earlier dates.
Blinken says new US‑Lebanon talks will not address Israeli pull‑back
Blinken announced a new round of talks in Washington aimed at a cease‑fire but made no commitments on Israeli withdrawal, leaving market sentiment unchanged at low levels.
Israel announces partial troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 5%2%
Israel began withdrawing troops from certain areas in southern Lebanon as part of the US-mediated pilot zone plan, raising hopes for further withdrawals but with troops still poised for action.
Israel confirms partial withdrawal from pilot zones, maintains security presence
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israel began a pilot withdrawal from two zones in southern Lebanon under the U.S.-brokered framework but emphasized it would maintain a security zone until Hezbollah is disarmed. This partial move was seen as limited, keeping market probabilities low.
Israel and Lebanon link withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament under US-mediated framework
September 30 dips to 12%4%
The agreement linked gradual Israeli withdrawal to the deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces and the disarmament of Hezbollah, with Israel maintaining a security zone until threats are eliminated, dampening market expectations for full withdrawal.
Israel delays Lebanon withdrawal amid security and verification concerns
August 31 drops to 8%6%
Negotiations faced delays due to trust issues over Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese control, with Israel demanding security guarantees, leading to market price drops reflecting reduced likelihood of timely full withdrawal.
US official confirms Israel has withdrawn from parts of southern Lebanon pilot zones
July 31 dips to 12%2%
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some parts of the southern Lebanon security zone, marking a concrete step under the framework agreement. However, Israeli officials denied a full pullback, maintaining control over key areas. This partial withdrawal was seen as insufficient for full market optimism.
Israeli Defense Minister confirms forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon security zones
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and would remain indefinitely in security zones to protect against threats, dampening market expectations for a full withdrawal.
US official says IDF withdrawal from first Lebanon pilot zone imminent
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli Defense Forces would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling progress on partial withdrawal but not full withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
Israeli opposition signals foreign policy change but not withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 plunges to 1%22%
Israeli opposition parties indicated a change in foreign policy style but did not commit to withdrawing ground forces from Lebanon. This maintained market skepticism about a full withdrawal by July 31, contributing to further price declines.
Israeli Defense Minister states no withdrawal from Lebanon despite US demands
July 31 drops to 6%8%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that the military would not withdraw from Lebanon even if pressured by the US, signaling a firm stance against full withdrawal. This statement contributed to declining market confidence in a complete Israeli exit by the analyzed dates.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, signaling partial implementation of the framework agreement. However, no timeline was given for full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to the vacated areas. This was seen as a first step toward implementing the framework agreement but did not indicate a full withdrawal, leading to modest market adjustments.
Katz says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if the US presses it
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Katz, speaking at a conference, again dismissed any US pressure to withdraw, reinforcing market belief that even the earliest July deadline was unattainable, cementing the 1 % price for July‑31 by July 4.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms indefinite troop presence in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel's Defence Minister reiterated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in Lebanon's security zones, reinforcing the market's low confidence in withdrawal by July 31 and beyond.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
July 31 dips to 0%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited IDF troops in southern Lebanon and stated that Israeli forces would stay in the security zone as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, signaling no full withdrawal in the near term and reinforcing market pessimism.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vows indefinite military presence in Lebanon
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in self-declared security zones in Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal and undermining market expectations for near-term exit.
Israel confirms troops will remain in Lebanon until further notice
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz reiterated that Israeli troops would remain in security zones in Lebanon until further notice to protect against security threats, dampening market hopes for near-term withdrawal.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli military presence in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 dips to 18%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited IDF troops in southern Lebanon and declared Israeli forces would remain as long as necessary to counter Hezbollah, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism about a complete exit by the deadlines.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah threat eliminated
September 30 dips to 12%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited IDF troops and stated forces would stay in the security zone as long as Hezbollah remains armed, reinforcing the stalemate and lowering market expectations for withdrawal.
Israel Defense Minister states troops will remain in Lebanon until further notice
December 31 dips to 18%4%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli troops would remain in security zones in Lebanon until further notice to protect Israeli communities, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and reinforcing the conditional nature of any pullback. This statement further reduced market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, signaling progress on the partial withdrawal agreement but no indication of full withdrawal, leading to further price declines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterates no withdrawal while Hezbollah armed
December 31 dips to 23%4%
Netanyahu stated Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, reinforcing the conditional nature of withdrawal and contributing to market price declines.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates troops will remain in Lebanon until further notice
July 31 rises to 13%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain in security zones in Lebanon indefinitely to protect Israeli residents, reinforcing the official stance against full withdrawal and maintaining low market confidence for near-term withdrawal.
Israeli forces begin withdrawal from first pilot zones in southern Lebanon
August 31 dips to 8%1%
US officials confirmed that Israeli troops started withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon, marking the initial implementation of the June agreement. However, the withdrawal was limited and did not indicate a full exit, leading to modest market impact.
US official confirms imminent IDF withdrawal from first pilot zone in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon within days, marking the start of the phased withdrawal process but without a full withdrawal timetable.
Israeli officials reaffirm no full withdrawal until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 drops to 12%11%
Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, stated that full withdrawal from Lebanon would only occur after Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling a conditional and indefinite presence. This stance contributed to market declines in full withdrawal probabilities.
US official says Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones imminent
July 31 drops to 8%6%
A US official announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to the vacated areas. This raised hopes for progress but was conditional and partial, limiting market gains.
Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, vows to remain until Hezbollah disarmed
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and declared that Israel would not withdraw as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, reinforcing the market's view that a full withdrawal is unlikely soon.
US official indicates imminent IDF withdrawal from first pilot zone
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling progress but no firm timeline, which kept market expectations low for full withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu publicly declares Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security buffer zone
September 30 plunges to 12%31%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and reinforcing skepticism about withdrawal by upcoming dates.
Israel conducts 41 strikes in Lebanon, killing 23
Israel launched a major air‑strike campaign (41 strikes, 23 killed) in southern Lebanon, signaling escalation and further diminishing market expectations for a near‑term withdrawal.
Netanyahu publicly states Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security buffer zone indefinitely
September 30 dips to 11%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary,' rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks. This hardened market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the end of 2026, causing a price drop.
Israel Defense Minister vows to maintain military presence in southern Lebanon
August 31 dips to 4%4%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite international pressure and ceasefire agreements. This hardened stance further decreased market optimism for withdrawal by the end of 2026.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in Lebanon
July 31 drops to 5%6%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, as part of the framework agreement. This raised market hopes for progress but did not indicate a full withdrawal, leading to modest price movements.
Israel rules out timetable for withdrawal, insists on Hezbollah disarmament first
December 31 drops to 23%7%
Israeli officials publicly stated there was no set timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon and that Israeli forces would remain until Hezbollah is disarmed. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon withdrawal framework
December 31 drops to 23%7%
Hezbollah declared the framework agreement null and void, vowing to continue armed resistance and rejecting any linkage between Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament. This rejection complicated peace efforts and reduced market confidence in withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon security zones
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly rejected pressure to withdraw, stating Israeli forces will stay indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, citing ongoing Hezbollah threats. This statement reinforced market expectations of no full withdrawal by the analyzed dates, reflected in low market prices.
Iran urges US to set timetable for Israel's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31 dips to 8%1%
Iran called on the US to establish a clear schedule for Israel's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanese territories, emphasizing that ending occupation is essential for regional stability, increasing geopolitical pressure but not altering Israel's stance.
Israel triggers huge explosion destroying Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Despite the US-mediated ceasefire framework, Israel conducted a massive explosion destroying a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing hostilities and undermining confidence in a swift Israeli withdrawal.
Partial IDF withdrawal begins under trilateral framework amid Hezbollah protests
July 31 dips to 1%2%
The phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon commenced as per the trilateral agreement, but the majority of Israeli forces remained, and Hezbollah protested the deal, maintaining tensions and uncertainty about full withdrawal timelines.
Israeli military triggers huge explosion in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military triggered a massive explosion in southern Lebanon, escalating tensions and indicating ongoing military presence. This action further reduced market confidence in a timely Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
Israel conducts drone strike in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire framework
Israel carried out a drone strike targeting a threat in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military operations despite the framework agreement, which undermined confidence in a full withdrawal and contributed to market price declines.
Israel destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire framework
December 31 drops to 25%9%
Israel conducted a major military strike destroying a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing hostilities despite the recent ceasefire framework. This action underscored the fragility of the agreement and reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by the dates.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon testing days-old peace deal
Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon shortly after the framework agreement, signaling ongoing military presence and conflict despite the deal, which undermined confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of the year.
Israel destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Israeli military destroyed a Hezbollah tunnel in Majdal Zoun, signaling ongoing military operations and complicating prospects for withdrawal, contributing to market declines in withdrawal probability.
Lebanese President urges U.S. to ensure Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 25%1%
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on the United States to press Israel to comply with the framework agreement and withdraw from occupied territories to allow Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. This highlighted ongoing concerns about Israel's commitment and contributed to market doubts about timely withdrawal.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon despite recent withdrawal deal
August 31 dips to 8%1%
Israeli military strikes in southern Lebanon shortly after the framework agreement raised doubts about the durability of the deal and reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of August.
Israeli military continues strikes in Lebanon despite withdrawal agreement
Following the framework agreement, Israeli forces continued military operations in southern Lebanon, including airstrikes, signaling that a full withdrawal was not imminent and maintaining pressure on Hezbollah. This ongoing conflict contributed to the market's low confidence in a complete withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Israel conducts drone strike in southern Lebanon after framework agreement
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Despite the framework agreement, Israel carried out a drone strike targeting a threat to its forces in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing military operations and limiting confidence in a full withdrawal by early dates.
Lebanon's parliament speaker says Israel-Lebanon deal 'will not pass'
Lebanese political opposition to the framework agreement grew, with the parliament speaker publicly rejecting the deal. This political resistance signaled challenges to the agreement's implementation and diminished prospects for Israeli withdrawal, contributing to market declines.
Israel conditions further withdrawals on Hezbollah disarmament, IDF demolishes Hezbollah tunnel
December 31 dips to 18%4%
Israeli officials emphasized that future withdrawals depend on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah. The IDF demolished a major Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing military operations and security concerns that limit withdrawal prospects.
UNIFIL notes brief pause in Israeli artillery, troops stay in place
UNIFIL reported a temporary pause in Israeli artillery fire, but Israeli forces remained on the ground, leading to a marginal price dip as traders briefly hoped for de‑escalation.
Lebanese officials and public express skepticism and criticism of partial withdrawal deal
December 31 dips to 22%1%
Following the framework agreement, Lebanese leaders described it as a first step toward restoring sovereignty but critics and protesters, including Hezbollah supporters, criticized the deal for not forcing a full Israeli withdrawal. This ongoing skepticism contributed to further market declines in the probability of full withdrawal by the earlier dates.
Netanyahu details areas of IDF withdrawal in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed out the specific areas from which the IDF would withdraw as part of the US-mediated agreement, reinforcing that the withdrawal was partial and contingent on Hezbollah disarmament, which tempered market optimism for a full withdrawal.
Lebanese government leaders call framework agreement a first step toward restoring sovereignty amid protests
December 31 dips to 21%2%
Lebanese Prime Minister and President publicly endorsed the framework agreement as a step toward Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese sovereignty, but the deal faced criticism and protests, especially from Hezbollah supporters, reflecting ongoing tensions and uncertainty about full Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, calls it a capitulation
December 31 drops to 28%8%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the framework agreement, criticizing it as a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty and opposing the disarmament condition. This rejection raised doubts about the agreement's implementation and the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal.
Netanyahu emphasizes Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary
December 31 drops to 23%8%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect northern Israeli communities until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the earlier dates.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon withdrawal framework, protests erupt in Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%12%
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework linking Israeli withdrawal to its disarmament, leading to protests in Lebanon and casting doubt on the deal's effectiveness in prompting Israeli withdrawal, contributing to market pessimism.
Netanyahu presents areas for IDF withdrawal as part of US-mediated agreement
December 31 drops to 24%10%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed to areas where the IDF would withdraw as part of the US-mediated framework agreement, signaling the start of a phased, conditions-based withdrawal process rather than an immediate full withdrawal.
Lebanese government commits to implementing framework agreement, calls for full Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 22%2%
Following the June 26 agreement, Lebanese officials including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun expressed commitment to the agreement as a first step toward restoring sovereignty and called on the US to ensure Israel fulfills its withdrawal commitments. Hezbollah rejected the deal, maintaining demands for unconditional Israeli withdrawal, sustaining tensions and uncertainty about full withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects disarmament-linked withdrawal framework
September 30 plunges to 13%30%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the framework agreement linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, calling it a humiliation. This rejection maintained the status quo of Israeli military presence, further reducing market confidence in full withdrawal by the specified dates.
Agreement conditions Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
The signed framework stipulated that Israeli forces would only withdraw from areas where the Lebanese army had disarmed Hezbollah, making full withdrawal contingent on a difficult condition. This increased market doubts about a complete withdrawal by the deadlines.
Netanyahu confirms IDF will remain in southern Lebanon areas
July 31 plunges to 8%15%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will not withdraw despite US demands
July 31 drops to 16%7%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting US pressure to withdraw. This statement reinforced market skepticism about withdrawal by July 31, contributing to price declines.
Iran-linked outlet demands full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 dips to 21%4%
Iranian media linked ceasefire talks to demands for full Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing regional tensions and reducing market optimism about withdrawal prospects.
Hezbollah rejects disarmament-linked Israeli withdrawal framework agreement
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework agreement linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, calling it a humiliation and dangerous, leading to protests and continued tensions, which kept market prices for withdrawal very low.
Hezbollah and Lebanese public criticize framework agreement with Israel
Following the signing of the framework agreement, Hezbollah rejected the deal and protests erupted in Lebanon, reflecting internal opposition and uncertainty about the implementation of Israeli withdrawal, which kept market confidence low.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon as Hezbollah condemns new deal
Following the signing of the framework agreement, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least one person. Hezbollah condemned the new deal, indicating ongoing conflict and reducing confidence in a full Israeli withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward.
Israeli drone strike hits target in southern Lebanon after framework signing
July 31 dips to 9%1%
Despite the framework, Israeli forces conducted a drone strike the same day, signalling that a full withdrawal was not imminent and keeping market sentiment firmly “No”.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal limited to two pilot zones, maintaining broader security presence
December 31 drops to 27%5%
Israeli officials emphasized the withdrawal was symbolic and limited, with security concerns and Hezbollah disarmament as preconditions for further pullback. This reinforced market skepticism about full withdrawal by year-end.
Hezbollah and Lebanese political actors condemn Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Hezbollah and many Lebanese political groups rejected the framework agreement, calling it humiliating and a surrender of sovereignty, increasing political tensions and uncertainty about the withdrawal's implementation, negatively impacting market confidence.
Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon pilot zones in coming days, US official says
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon soon, though no exact timeline was given. This tentative progress led to modest market adjustments.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as humiliating and a surrender of sovereignty, rejecting the deal and undermining prospects for a full Israeli withdrawal. This rejection contributed to further market price declines.
Israeli forces conduct drone strike in southern Lebanon despite withdrawal agreement
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli forces carried out a drone strike targeting a perceived threat, signaling ongoing military operations and undermining confidence in a full withdrawal. This action contributed to further market declines in withdrawal probabilities.
Netanyahu emphasizes conditional withdrawal tied to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 25%6%
Following the agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon and only withdraw fully after Hezbollah is disarmed. This stance indicated that a full withdrawal was unlikely in the near term, further reducing market confidence in a complete withdrawal by the specified dates.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon withdrawal agreement
December 31 dips to 25%2%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as a surrender and nullified it, opposing the condition linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament. This rejection undermined prospects for a full withdrawal and contributed to market price declines.
Netanyahu confirms partial withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly confirmed the partial withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon as part of the US-mediated agreement, emphasizing that Israeli forces would remain in much of southern Lebanon. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Netanyahu affirms Israeli forces will remain until Hezbollah disarms
December 31 drops to 24%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon security zones "for as long as necessary" until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no immediate full withdrawal. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a swift exit, contributing to price declines.
Israeli Defense Minister orders forces to prepare for extended stay in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered Israeli forces to prepare for an extended stay in the security zone up to 10 km inside Lebanese territory, reinforcing the message that a full withdrawal was not imminent and depressing market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal tied to Hezbollah disarmament, no fixed timetable
December 31 dips to 27%3%
Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter stated that the IDF withdrawal is performance-based and contingent on Hezbollah's disarmament, with no fixed timetable. This tempered market expectations for a swift full withdrawal and contributed to price declines across all outcomes.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms IDF withdrawal from two pilot zones in Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Netanyahu stated Israeli forces would leave areas they do not need in Lebanon as part of the agreement, but maintained that IDF would remain in other occupied areas, indicating a partial and conditional withdrawal.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from first pilot zone in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 13%10%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first pilot zone in the coming days, but no exact timeline was given, reflecting the gradual and uncertain nature of the withdrawal process.
Israel agrees to partial withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon
September 30 drops to 16%6%
Following the framework agreement, Israel agreed to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese forces to replace them, but Hezbollah rejected the deal, maintaining tensions and limiting market optimism.
Netanyahu confirms Israeli forces to remain in security zone despite partial withdrawal deal
December 31 dips to 21%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces will remain in the southern Lebanon security zone as long as Hezbollah remains armed, underscoring that the withdrawal is limited and conditional. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal only after Hezbollah disarmament in pilot zones
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
The agreement text revealed Israeli forces would withdraw only from areas where the Lebanese military has disarmed Hezbollah, creating a conditional and phased withdrawal process that dampened market optimism for early full withdrawal.
Netanyahu presents map of partial IDF withdrawal areas in Lebanon
December 31 drops to 28%10%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed out the limited areas from which Israeli forces would withdraw, emphasizing that the IDF would remain in other parts of southern Lebanon, reinforcing the partial nature of the withdrawal.
Netanyahu clarifies Israel will maintain security zone in Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 23%16%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in a security zone in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, signaling that a full withdrawal was not imminent. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a complete withdrawal by the end of 2026, contributing to further price declines.
Netanyahu confirms IDF will withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 9%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed to areas where Israeli forces would withdraw as part of the US-mediated agreement, signaling progress but emphasizing limited scope and conditionality, which moderated market optimism.
Netanyahu confirms IDF withdrawal from two areas north and south of Litani River
December 31 dips to 24%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would withdraw from areas north and south of the Litani River as part of the agreement, emphasizing that Israel would maintain presence in other occupied territories as long as Hezbollah remains armed, signaling a conditional and limited withdrawal.
Netanyahu outlines areas for IDF withdrawal under US-mediated deal
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly identified the two pilot zones for withdrawal north and south of the Litani River, emphasizing that the IDF would leave sites it "does not need". This clarification reinforced the limited scope of withdrawal, tempering market expectations.
IDF to begin withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in coming days
December 31 dips to 27%2%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli forces prepared to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, though no exact timeline was given. This partial withdrawal plan maintained Israeli control over much of southern Lebanon, limiting market optimism for full withdrawal.
IDF Chief of Staff approves plans for partial withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
December 31 dips to 23%3%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli military leadership prepared for phased withdrawals from designated pilot zones, signaling initial implementation steps and causing modest market adjustments.
Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon pilot zones in coming days, US official says
December 31 drops to 27%5%
A US official indicated that the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon was imminent, signaling progress in implementing the framework agreement but without a fixed timeline for full withdrawal. This maintained cautious market optimism for partial withdrawal but skepticism for full withdrawal.
Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms Israel will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
Netanyahu stated Israeli forces would stay in the security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah's military capabilities are dismantled, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism about near-term exit.
Agreement ties Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, creating deadlock
July 31 drops to 14%9%
The framework agreement stipulated that Israeli forces would only withdraw after the Lebanese military disarmed Hezbollah, a condition Hezbollah rejected, leading to a stalemate and dampening market optimism for withdrawal by early dates.
Netanyahu points to areas for IDF withdrawal under US-mediated agreement
December 31 dips to 23%1%
At a press conference, Netanyahu highlighted the specific zones in southern Lebanon from which Israeli forces would withdraw, reinforcing the phased nature of the withdrawal and maintaining Israeli control elsewhere, which tempered market optimism.
Netanyahu holds press conference pointing to areas of planned IDF withdrawal
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly identified the two pilot zones for withdrawal and emphasized that Israeli forces would leave only sites they "do not need," signaling a limited and controlled pullback rather than full withdrawal, which tempered market optimism.
Netanyahu clarifies withdrawal limited to areas IDF 'does not need'
August 31 plunges to 11%18%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would withdraw only from areas they do not need, emphasizing continued military presence in southern Lebanon. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the end of August or September.
Agreement conditions Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 28%1%
The signed agreement stipulated that Israeli forces would only withdraw from southern Lebanon areas where the Lebanese military has disarmed Hezbollah and dismantled its infrastructure, tempering market expectations for a swift withdrawal.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 9%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli Defense Forces would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling initial implementation of the framework agreement but no timeline for full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
IDF announces imminent withdrawal from first pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli officials announced that IDF troops would begin withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days. This operational step reinforced the partial withdrawal plan but lacked a clear timeline for full withdrawal, tempering market enthusiasm.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms withdrawal from two areas in Lebanon
December 31 drops to 23%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israeli forces would withdraw from areas north and south of the Litani River as part of the framework agreement, describing the move as leaving sites the IDF 'does not need.' This official statement supported the partial withdrawal plan but emphasized continued Israeli presence elsewhere.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
December 31 dips to 22%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling progress in implementing the framework agreement and raising market expectations for partial withdrawal.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal contingent on Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 26%2%
Israeli officials stated that withdrawal from southern Lebanon would only occur after the Lebanese military disarms Hezbollah and dismantles its infrastructure. This conditionality signaled that withdrawal was not imminent, tempering market optimism about near-term full withdrawal.
Netanyahu details areas of partial IDF withdrawal under US-mediated deal
December 31 dips to 26%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly identified the two pilot zones north and south of the Litani River from which Israeli forces would withdraw, emphasizing the withdrawals were from areas the IDF 'does not need.' This clarified the limited scope of withdrawal and tempered market expectations for a full withdrawal soon.
US official confirms imminent IDF withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
December 31 dips to 25%3%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling initial implementation of the June 26 agreement. This news supported the partial withdrawal narrative but did not indicate full withdrawal, leading to moderate market adjustments.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 rises to 25%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, supporting the framework agreement and briefly boosting market confidence.
Netanyahu clarifies withdrawal limited to areas IDF 'does not need' in Lebanon
December 31 dips to 24%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would withdraw only from areas they do not need, emphasizing that the withdrawal was symbolic and limited, which tempered market expectations for a full withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Netanyahu and Israeli officials affirm no full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 17%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, rejecting any immediate or unconditional withdrawal. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu clarifies withdrawal limited to areas IDF 'does not need'
December 31 dips to 24%1%
Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would withdraw only from areas they do not need, emphasizing that Israel would maintain military presence in much of southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, tempering market expectations for full withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
December 31 drops to 18%6%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance of continued occupation and reducing market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects Lebanon-Israel agreement, vows continued resistance
December 31 drops to 21%13%
Hezbollah declared the US-brokered agreement null and void, rejecting any linkage between Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament, and vowed to continue armed resistance. This stance undermined confidence in a swift Israeli withdrawal, leading to a sharp market price decline.
US official announces imminent withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
December 31 drops to 17%6%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, marking the start of implementing the framework agreement but without a fixed timeline for full withdrawal.
Agreement ties Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament in pilot zones
December 31 dips to 22%1%
The deal specified that Israeli forces would only withdraw from areas where the Lebanese military had disarmed Hezbollah, making full withdrawal contingent on difficult conditions and reducing market confidence in a complete withdrawal by the deadlines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms partial withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would withdraw from areas north and south of the Litani River but emphasized that the military would remain in much of southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed. This reinforced the conditional nature of the withdrawal and contributed to market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel-Lebanon framework deal includes ceasefire and partial withdrawal but Hezbollah rejects terms
August 31 drops to 16%13%
The US-mediated agreement included a ceasefire and partial withdrawal, but Hezbollah's rejection and insistence on full Israeli withdrawal tempered expectations for a complete pullout, contributing to market declines.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hails Israel-Lebanon framework as 'beginning of the beginning'
December 31 plunges to 32%17%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised the framework agreement as a vital first step toward peace between Israel and Lebanon, signaling US commitment to the process despite the challenges ahead. This diplomatic endorsement initially supported market optimism for withdrawal prospects.
US Secretary of State Rubio announces Israel-Lebanon partial withdrawal deal
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
Marco Rubio announced the framework agreement as a step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty and security, highlighting the withdrawal from two pilot zones but noting Hezbollah's rejection of the deal. This reinforced market reassessment of withdrawal likelihood.
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Lebanon demands full Israeli withdrawal in Washington talks
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
A senior Lebanese official stated that any declaration from Washington talks must include a complete Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory under a defined timetable. This insistence contributed to extending negotiations and highlighted the gap between Lebanese demands and the partial withdrawal agreement, affecting market sentiment.
Israeli officials state no timetable for withdrawal, linking it to Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 plunges to 14%29%
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, emphasized that withdrawal from Lebanon would depend on Hezbollah's disarmament and that forces would remain as long as Hezbollah posed a threat. This hardened stance reduced market expectations for withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework for partial IDF withdrawal from two zones
July 31 plunges to 23%16%
A trilateral framework was signed in Washington, announcing a *partial* IDF pull‑back from two pilot zones. The news produced a brief rally (price rose to 72 % on June 23) but the limited scope quickly dampened optimism, sending the price back down to the low‑teens by June 30.
Israel agrees to test military withdrawal from small fraction of southern Lebanon
September 30 plunges to 24%19%
The agreement included a plan for Israel to withdraw from a small fraction of occupied territory in southern Lebanon, home to Hezbollah. The deal was seen as a tentative step, with no immediate full withdrawal, tempering market expectations.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement after US-brokered talks
A framework agreement was signed between Israel and Lebanon, brokered by the US, aiming to address border issues but not including a commitment for Israel to withdraw all ground forces from Lebanon. This led to market uncertainty as the agreement did not guarantee a full withdrawal, causing prices to drop.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-mediated framework agreement for phased withdrawal
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, brokered by the US, linking gradual Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament. This agreement raised hopes for withdrawal but also set conditions that complicated immediate exit, impacting market prices downward.
Hezbollah rejects U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
September 30 plunges to 8%35%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty and declared it null and void, undermining prospects for a swift Israeli withdrawal and contributing to market skepticism about near-term resolution.
US Secretary of State announces framework deal for lasting peace including Israeli withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework deal between Israel and Lebanon for lasting peace involving Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Lebanese army deployment. Despite the announcement, Israeli officials emphasized continued military presence, limiting market confidence in full withdrawal by the dates analyzed.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal contingent on Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 23%8%
Israeli officials emphasized that the withdrawal from southern Lebanon would only occur after the Lebanese military disarms Hezbollah and dismantles its infrastructure, creating a conditional and gradual process rather than an immediate pullout. This tempered market expectations for a swift withdrawal.
Israel, Lebanon sign US-mediated framework agreement for phased IDF withdrawal
December 31 rises to 25%1%
A trilateral framework agreement was signed in Washington, outlining phased Israeli withdrawals from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment, boosting market expectations initially.
U.S., Israel, Lebanon sign framework for partial Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 30%19%
A U.S.-brokered framework agreement was signed by Israel and Lebanon to begin a phased Israeli withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized maintaining presence in security zones until Hezbollah is disarmed, tempering market optimism.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
December 31 drops to 12%11%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary' until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and causing market prices for withdrawal to decline sharply.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 drops to 2%5%
A trilateral agreement was signed in Washington, D.C., outlining a phased, conditional partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control. The deal did not commit to a full withdrawal, leading to a drop in market prices for earlier withdrawal dates.
US proposes pilot plan for partial Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
The US proposed a pilot program for Israel to withdraw from selected areas in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking control. This proposal indicated a possible pathway to reduce tensions but did not guarantee full withdrawal, contributing to market uncertainty.
Hezbollah chief Qassem calls for unconditional Israeli withdrawal
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem demanded unconditional Israeli withdrawal, emphasizing that any partial pull‑back was unacceptable. The hard‑line stance further reduced market optimism.
Israel to withdraw from two areas in Lebanon under new U.S.‑brokered agreement
Israel announced a limited withdrawal from two areas of southern Lebanon as part of a U.S.‑brokered framework agreement, but the deal left most of the occupied zone in place, reinforcing market pessimism about a full pull‑out by any of the listed dates.
Israel agrees to partial Lebanon withdrawal after Washington talks
September 30 plunges to 13%30%
Following the agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would retain control over much of southern Lebanon and that withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, limiting expectations for a full withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
US Secretary of State calls Lebanon-Israel deal 'the beginning of the beginning'
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Marco Rubio described the framework agreement as a major milestone but emphasized it was only the start of a long negotiation process, tempering market expectations for rapid withdrawal.
Israel, Lebanon sign U.S.-mediated framework agreement
December 31 dips to 25%3%
A trilateral framework agreement was signed aiming to wedge Lebanon away from Iran and set conditions for withdrawal, but doubts about implementation and Hezbollah opposition kept market confidence low.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 23%26%
Israel agreed to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon under a US-mediated agreement, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as a first step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty but did not include a full Israeli withdrawal, causing market prices for full withdrawal to drop.
Israeli officials state no fixed timetable for withdrawal, linking it to Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
Israeli officials, including Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, emphasized that the IDF withdrawal was performance-based and contingent on Hezbollah's disarmament, not on a fixed timetable. This conditionality tempered market expectations for a swift withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
After four days of talks in Washington, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement for Israel to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as insufficient for full withdrawal, causing mixed market reactions with some temporary price increases but overall decline.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calls agreement a major win, ties withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 plunges to 14%29%
Netanyahu described the agreement as a major win for Israel, allowing continued presence in much of southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, signaling that withdrawal is conditional and not immediate, which tempered market optimism.
Israel and Lebanon sign agreement for withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 39%10%
After four days of US-mediated talks, Israel agreed to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese military as part of a pilot program. This agreement was seen as a first step toward broader peace but did not signal full withdrawal, causing a modest market uptick for longer-term outcomes.
Hezbollah rejects Lebanon-Israel withdrawal deal, vows continued resistance
December 31 drops to 18%7%
Hezbollah declared the US-mediated framework agreement null and void, rejecting disarmament conditions and vowing to continue armed resistance, undermining prospects for full Israeli withdrawal and causing market declines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to maintain forces in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 drops to 23%7%
Netanyahu publicly declared Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon 'as long as necessary' until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for near-term exit.
Netanyahu announces withdrawal from two areas in southern Lebanon under agreement
December 31 dips to 25%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would withdraw from two areas north and south of the Litani River as part of the US-mediated agreement, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as a symbolic gesture rather than a full exit, tempering market expectations.
US Secretary of State announces Israel-Lebanon partial withdrawal deal
September 30 plunges to 24%19%
Marco Rubio announced the framework agreement after five rounds of talks, highlighting a performance-based trilateral framework excluding Iran and Hezbollah. The deal included Israeli withdrawal from two pilot zones but no fixed timetable, causing market prices to fall further.
Israeli officials affirm no immediate full withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%8%
Despite the framework agreement, Israeli officials including Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw fully from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah was disarmed, reinforcing a conditional and prolonged presence. This tempered market optimism about a near-term full withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister states no withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel would not redeploy or withdraw from southern Lebanon unless Hezbollah was disarmed and the safety of northern Israeli residents was guaranteed. This firm stance reduced market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
US Secretary of State praises agreement as 'beginning of the beginning'
September 30 plunges to 19%24%
US officials hailed the agreement as a major milestone toward peace, but emphasized it was only the start of a long process, which contributed to cautious market sentiment and price declines.
Lebanon demands full Israeli withdrawal in any Washington deal
December 31 dips to 26%2%
A senior Lebanese official insisted that any declaration of principles from the Washington talks must include a complete Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory under a defined timetable, reflecting Lebanon's firm stance and contributing to market uncertainty about the withdrawal timeline.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 drops to 39%10%
After four days of US-mediated talks in Washington, Israel and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework agreement for Israel to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese Armed Forces. However, the agreement did not set a fixed timetable and Israeli forces would remain in other areas until Hezbollah is disarmed. This partial withdrawal plan caused a moderate price drop reflecting uncertainty about full withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states Israel will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed
December 31 dips to 23%2%
Despite the framework agreement, Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains a threat and is not disarmed, dampening market expectations for a swift full withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon Sign Framework Agreement for Limited Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Israel agreed to withdraw from two specific locations in Lebanon, one north and one south of the Litani River, marking a partial and limited withdrawal but not a full exit. This agreement was seen as a small step but insufficient for full withdrawal expectations.
Israel agrees to withdraw from two areas in Lebanon under new agreement
December 31 jumps to 31%8%
After four days of talks in Washington, Israel agreed to withdraw from two small areas in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese military. Netanyahu described this as leaving sites the IDF 'does not need.' This partial withdrawal was seen as symbolic and insufficient for full withdrawal, causing only minor market upticks for longer-term withdrawal dates.
U.S. Secretary of State announces Israel-Lebanon partial withdrawal deal
September 30 plunges to 24%19%
Marco Rubio announced the framework agreement on June 26, highlighting it as a major milestone but emphasizing it as only the beginning of negotiations. The deal involved Israel withdrawing from two areas inside a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese forces, but Israel retained control over much of the territory, limiting market optimism.
Israel and Lebanon sign U.S.-brokered framework agreement for partial Israeli withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 28%21%
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated framework agreement calling for phased Israeli withdrawals from two areas in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese forces replacing Israeli troops. This agreement was seen as a first step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty and disarming Hezbollah, causing initial market optimism for withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
Israel agreed to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon under a US-mediated deal, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This initial agreement was seen as a first step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty but did not set a timetable for full withdrawal, causing initial market optimism but uncertainty about full withdrawal timing.
Israel sets no timetable for withdrawal amid ongoing US-brokered talks
December 31 plunges to 25%24%
Israeli officials publicly stated that no timetable was set for withdrawal from Lebanon, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Israel states no timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon despite talks
July 31 dips to 12%3%
Israeli officials declared they had set no timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon, emphasizing that troops would remain as long as Hezbollah posed a threat. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israel states no timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon amid US-brokered talks
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
Israeli officials declared no set timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon, emphasizing that withdrawal depends on Hezbollah's disarmament. This stance tempered market expectations for a near-term withdrawal despite ongoing negotiations.
US says Israel pulled back from part of buffer zone; Israel denies
A U.S. State Department official claimed Israel had “pulled back from a part of its buffer zone,” but Israeli officials immediately denied any withdrawal. The mixed messages caused a modest further decline in Yes prices.
Israel says no timetable for troop withdrawal from Lebanon amid talks
July 31 drops to 14%9%
Israeli officials stated there was no set timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon, emphasizing that troops would remain as long as Hezbollah posed a threat. This hardened stance contributed to declining market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Israel sets no timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon amid ongoing talks
August 31 plunges to 10%19%
Israel publicly stated it had no timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon, reinforcing the view that withdrawal would be conditional and gradual, which contributed to declining market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Israel sets no timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon amid ongoing talks
September 30 plunges to 16%27%
Israeli officials publicly stated there was no set timetable for troop withdrawal from Lebanon, signaling a prolonged military presence and reducing market confidence in near-term withdrawal.
Israel says no timetable for troop withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 25%24%
Israeli officials stated they had set no timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon and would not withdraw as long as Hezbollah remains a threat. This hardened market sentiment against near-term withdrawal, causing a sharp price drop.
Israeli Defense Minister states no plans for troop withdrawal from Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel had no plans to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, emphasizing the necessity of maintaining a security zone. This statement contradicted earlier signals of withdrawal and contributed to a decline in market confidence for earlier withdrawal dates.
Israel declares no timetable for withdrawal from Lebanon amid talks
December 31 plunges to 28%21%
Israeli officials publicly stated that there was no set timetable for withdrawing forces from Lebanon, emphasizing security concerns and the ongoing threat from Hezbollah. This announcement reduced market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Israeli Defence Minister Declares No Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, emphasizing that there was no American demand for such a withdrawal. This statement undermined expectations of a near-term withdrawal and contributed to a drop in market prices for earlier withdrawal dates.
Israel and Lebanon discuss U.S.-backed troop withdrawal proposal
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
Israeli and Lebanese officials discussed a U.S.-backed plan for partial Israeli troop withdrawal and Lebanese army control, briefly raising market hopes for withdrawal by later dates.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from Lebanon even if US demands it
December 31 drops to 24%8%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon despite US pressure, reinforcing the stance against withdrawal and contributing to market price declines for withdrawal probabilities.
Israel’s defence minister says IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon even under U.S. pressure
Katz publicly declared that Israel will maintain its security zone in Lebanon “even if there is an American demand”, signaling no near‑term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 17%6%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would remain in southern Lebanon and that there was no American demand for withdrawal, signaling a firm stance against a full pullout and impacting market expectations negatively for withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 23%13%
Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance of continued occupation and reducing market expectations for withdrawal by mid-year.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states troops will not withdraw despite US demands
June 30 dips to 5%2%
On June 24, 2026, Israel Katz publicly affirmed that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if pressured by the US, further dampening market expectations for withdrawal by the end of June and beyond.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the position of continued occupation and reducing market confidence in withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will not withdraw even if US demands it
July 31 drops to 12%6%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon despite US pressure, reinforcing Israel's stance to maintain military presence. This further reduced market confidence in withdrawal by any near-term date.
Israel’s defence minister says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if the US demands it
July 31 plunges to 7%16%
Katz reiterated Israel’s refusal to withdraw even if the United States demanded it, further eroding confidence that any deadline could be met and pushing the July‑31 odds down to a single digit (7 %).
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US pressure
December 31 dips to 21%2%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, reinforcing Netanyahu's position and further lowering market confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance of maintaining military presence and undermining expectations of a full withdrawal.
Israeli Defence Minister says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance against full withdrawal and contributing to market price declines for withdrawal by earlier dates.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, reinforcing the stance of indefinite military presence and further reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 12%11%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Israeli defense minister denies plans for withdrawal despite US demands
August 31 drops to 9%6%
The Israeli defense minister publicly stated that the military would not withdraw from Lebanon even if pressured by the US, signaling continued Israeli presence and reducing market confidence in a full withdrawal by mid-2026.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz denies any withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%48%
Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and that there was no US demand for such a withdrawal, contradicting earlier US claims and dampening market optimism about near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Israel's Defence Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly reinforced Israel's refusal to withdraw from Lebanon despite US pressure, emphasizing operational priorities and security concerns. This statement further reduced market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of July.
Israeli Defence Minister says IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance that no full withdrawal was imminent and contributing to market price declines.
Israeli defense minister states troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 2%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon for as long as necessary, rejecting US pressure to withdraw and undermining peace talks. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US pressure
July 31 drops to 11%5%
Katz stated Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance against full withdrawal and contributing to further market price declines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declares forces will remain in Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 plunges to 29%43%
Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli ground forces would stay in southern Lebanon "as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements. This hardened market sentiment against near-term withdrawal, causing a sharp price drop.
Hezbollah leader demands full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem publicly demanded Israel's full withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, rejecting partial withdrawal frameworks and maintaining a hardline stance. This hardened position contributed to market skepticism about near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah chief demands Israel fully withdraw from all Lebanese territory
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem demanded a full Israeli withdrawal, highlighting the gap between political demands and on‑the‑ground realities, which kept market odds low for any withdrawal date.
Lebanon and Israel sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
Israel, Lebanon, and the US signed a framework agreement calling for Israeli withdrawal from two pilot areas in southern Lebanon with Lebanese army deployment. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated forces would remain in the security zone as long as Hezbollah is active, limiting withdrawal scope and market optimism.
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
US official confirms partial Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon buffer zone
July 31 dips to 2%2%
A US State Department official announced that Israel had withdrawn from some parts of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces expected to take over. This partial withdrawal was seen as a goodwill gesture but fell short of full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
Israel lifts all northern restrictions as Lebanon withdrawal talks begin
Israel lifted all restrictions in its northern regions, signaling a potential start to negotiations on Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon. This raised initial market hopes for a withdrawal, reflected in higher probabilities.
US State Department official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
A US official announced that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, signaling a potential start to Israeli pullback. However, Israeli and Lebanese authorities denied this claim, creating uncertainty about the extent and reality of any withdrawal.
Israel lifts all restrictions in north amid talks on partial Lebanon withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
Israel lifted all restrictions in its northern region as talks were set to begin on withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon, signaling initial diplomatic progress and raising market optimism for withdrawal.
Israeli officials declare no immediate withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 16%33%
Israeli officials publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite international pressure. This hardened stance decreased market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of 2026, causing a sharp drop in withdrawal probabilities.
Israeli Chief of Staff Rules Out Disarmament, Impacting Lebanon Withdrawal Odds
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there is no disarmament goal or ceasefire on the northern front, emphasizing ongoing military operations against Hezbollah. This hardened Israel's stance and decreased the likelihood of withdrawal by June 30, 2026, reflected in market price drops.
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
US official confirms Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
December 31 drops to 37%12%
A US State Department official stated that Israel had pulled back from some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied, marking a concrete step toward withdrawal and signaling good faith toward Lebanon's government. This partial withdrawal raised market hopes for further Israeli troop reductions.
IDF may shift positions but sets strict conditions for withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 12%3%
By June 21, Israeli officials stated withdrawal could only occur as part of US-sponsored talks with Lebanon and under strict conditions including Hezbollah's full withdrawal and dismantling. This maintained low market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Egypt urges complete Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon
Egypt called for a full Israeli withdrawal, adding regional diplomatic pressure but not changing Israeli policy, which contributed to a continued downward trend in Yes prices.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the Israeli army will not withdraw from territory occupied in southern Lebanon, reinforcing the position that no withdrawal announcement would occur soon, maintaining low market probabilities for withdrawal.
Netanyahu promises to keep Israeli forces in Lebanon despite US pressure
On June 21, Netanyahu vowed to maintain Israeli occupation forces inside Lebanon regardless of US President Trump's directives. Israeli Channel 12 reported Israel was considering only small, symbolic withdrawals. This reinforced market doubts about a full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement covering Lebanon, Israel stated it would not withdraw its forces from Lebanon, maintaining military presence and operations. This stance confirmed market skepticism about a withdrawal by the end of July.
Israel and Hezbollah renew cease‑fire after intense clashes
July 31 dips to 10%2%
A cease‑fire renewal was announced after heavy fighting, but both sides kept launching attacks. The fragile truce failed to improve market odds, which stayed low (≈ 10 %).
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire but Israel maintains forces in southern Lebanon
July 31 rises to 14%1%
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah after escalated fighting, but Israeli officials confirmed that Israel would keep its forces in southern Lebanon, indicating no withdrawal by the market's resolution date and sustaining low market confidence in a 'Yes' outcome.
U.S. official says Israel‑Hezbollah truce reached amid ongoing clashes
An American official reported that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a new truce mediated by the U.S., Qatar and Iran, but fighting continued on the ground, keeping withdrawal prospects low.
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid escalating conflict
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire effective June 19, 2026, brokered by the US and Qatar, aiming to halt fighting that threatened US-Iran peace talks. Despite the ceasefire, Israeli forces continued operations, maintaining uncertainty about a full withdrawal.
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Israel and Hezbollah agree to halt fighting amid US-Iran talks
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt heavy fighting in southern Lebanon, which temporarily eased tensions but did not lead to Israeli withdrawal, maintaining low market prices for withdrawal by July 31.
Chief of Staff Zamir says no cease‑fire or disarmament on northern front
Chief of Staff Lt‑Gen Eyal Zamir announced that there is no cease‑fire or disarmament goal on the northern front, signalling continued Israeli military presence and pushing the market lower.
Israel announces troops will remain in southern Lebanon, rejecting withdrawal calls
On June 18, the Israel Defense Forces announced that Israeli troops will continue to occupy large areas in southern Lebanon, rejecting calls for withdrawal and complicating peace negotiations, solidifying market sentiment against withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich rejects US diplomacy, vows no withdrawal from Lebanon
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich openly defied US President Trump by declaring Israel will not withdraw its forces from Lebanon, pledging a prolonged military presence to maintain operational freedom. This reinforced the Israeli government's refusal to withdraw and contributed to market skepticism about near-term withdrawal.
Iran demands Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as condition for US-Iran deal progress
Iran's top diplomat stated that the tentative US-Iran deal to end the war requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a condition Israel has rejected, threatening the deal's viability and underscoring the impasse over Israeli presence in Lebanon.
Israeli Chief of Staff rules out Hezbollah disarmament, impacting withdrawal odds
July 31 drops to 8%6%
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there was no goal of disarming Hezbollah or ceasing military operations on the northern front, indicating continued Israeli military presence in Lebanon. This statement contributed to a decline in market expectations for withdrawal by June 30, 2026.
Iran states Israel must withdraw from Lebanon to end war under US-Iran deal
July 31 drops to 14%5%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the tentative US-Iran deal to end the war requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a condition Israel has rejected. This diplomatic impasse indicated no imminent Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing market pessimism about withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli ambassador to U.S. confirms no plans to withdraw from South Lebanon
Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, reiterated Israel's firm position against withdrawing from southern Lebanon, contradicting interpretations of the U.S.-Iran deal and solidifying market consensus that withdrawal by July 31 was unlikely.
Iran urges Israel to withdraw from occupied areas in Lebanon
Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called for Israel to withdraw from occupied Lebanese areas, emphasizing the return of southern Lebanese people to their homes. This increased regional pressure but did not change Israel's position, maintaining market skepticism.
Hezbollah says Iran will push for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in US talks
Hezbollah stated that Iran will insist on Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition in its negotiations with the US. This reinforced the political impasse, as Israel rejects withdrawal, keeping market confidence low for a July 31 withdrawal.
Israeli ambassador to US states Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
September 30 plunges to 11%32%
Israel's ambassador to the US publicly declared that Israel has no plans to withdraw from southern Lebanon, reinforcing the government's position to maintain a security buffer zone. This statement further dampened market expectations for withdrawal by July 31 and beyond.
Israeli ambassador to US confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, confirmed Israel does not plan to withdraw from southern Lebanon, reinforcing the official stance against withdrawal despite the US-Iran peace deal, further lowering market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Defense Minister Katz rules out any Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz reiterated the government's position that Israeli forces will not withdraw from the so‑called security zone, reinforcing the June 15 statement and further depressing the market.
Iran says Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon is prerequisite for US‑Iran deal
Iran linked any U.S.–Iran cease‑fire agreement to a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, increasing geopolitical pressure but not altering Israel’s stance, nudging the market lower.
PM Netanyahu says Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 23%1%
Netanyahu reaffirmed Katz’s line, stating IDF troops will stay indefinitely in the occupied zone. The twin statements reinforced market expectations of a “No” outcome for all dates, contributing to the slide to 23 % by June 24.
Israel's ambassador to U.S. confirms no plan to withdraw from southern Lebanon
On June 16, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. reiterated Israel's position of not withdrawing from southern Lebanon, confirming official government stance and further reducing market confidence in withdrawal.
Israeli forces advance deeper into southern Lebanon beyond Litani River
August 31 plunges to 7%22%
Israeli ground forces expanded operations deeper into southern Lebanon, capturing strategic positions such as Beaufort Castle and advancing near Nabatieh. This military escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal, reflected in falling prices for withdrawal by June 30 and later dates.
Israeli leaders declare no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire
July 31 plunges to 6%17%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance caused market prices for near-term withdrawal dates to drop significantly.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declares continued occupation of southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 23%14%
Netanyahu publicly stated on June 15 that Israeli forces would remain in the Lebanon security buffer zone "for as long as necessary," signaling no imminent full withdrawal. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a complete withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon 'for as long as necessary,' explicitly ruling out any immediate withdrawal and strongly influencing market sentiment against a July 31 withdrawal.
Iran says US-Iran deal requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Iran's top diplomat stated that the tentative US-Iran agreement to end the war requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a condition Israel rejects, increasing uncertainty and lowering market confidence in withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu declares victory over Iran and rules out withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 rises to 17%3%
On June 15, Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly ruled out any immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, stating Israeli forces would remain as long as necessary, reinforcing market skepticism and causing prices to fall.
Netanyahu rules out immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no immediate plans for full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for near-term exit.
Israel signals refusal to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%9%
Israeli officials publicly stated they would maintain security zones in southern Lebanon, rejecting withdrawal demands and reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces continued occupation of southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
On June 15, 2026, Netanyahu declared Israeli forces would remain in the Lebanon security buffer zone as long as necessary, signaling no imminent full withdrawal. This statement reinforced market skepticism about withdrawal by upcoming dates, contributing to price declines.
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
June 30 dips to 6%4%
On June 15, 2026, Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks and ceasefire agreements, reinforcing market skepticism about a full withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister says Israel will stay indefinitely in lands seized in Lebanon
July 31 rises to 17%3%
On June 15, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel plans to remain indefinitely in the lands it holds in Lebanon, directly contradicting expectations of withdrawal and causing further decline in market probability for withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu declares Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon indefinitely
December 31 plunges to 31%18%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks and ceasefire agreements. This hardened market sentiment against early withdrawal, causing a price drop.
US and Iran announce ceasefire including Lebanon, but Israel to remain in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 6%3%
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding declared an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon, dampening expectations of a full withdrawal.
Netanyahu and Katz rule out withdrawal from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
Israeli leadership explicitly rejected any withdrawal from southern Lebanon, stating that ground forces will remain in the security zones indefinitely.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 drops to 16%7%
Netanyahu announced Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no imminent full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for early withdrawal dates.
Israeli leadership reaffirms no withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly declared Israel would maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely, opposing any withdrawal despite international pressure and ceasefire agreements, solidifying market pessimism about full withdrawal.
Israel refuses to pull back in Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Israel's Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly opposed withdrawing Israeli forces from Lebanon despite the US-Iran ceasefire deal, signaling continued military presence and reducing market confidence in withdrawal by the deadline.
Lebanese minister calls for withdrawal timetable; Israel says security zone will stay
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh called for a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal, but Israeli officials reiterated that they would retain the security zone, reinforcing market pessimism.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz rules out withdrawal from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 drops to 14%5%
Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel would not withdraw from southern Lebanon despite the emerging US-Iran peace agreement, emphasizing continued military presence and readiness to respond forcefully to Iranian attacks. This statement significantly lowered market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to maintain occupation in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 4%2%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements, which strongly influenced market expectations toward a 'No' outcome for withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will stay in Lebanon indefinitely
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli ground forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any pre‑condition of withdrawal. The announcement sharply reduced market confidence in a withdrawal by any of the listed dates, coinciding with the steep price drop on 23 June.
Netanyahu announces Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security buffer zone 'as long as necessary'
July 31 drops to 18%9%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would continue occupying southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks. This hardened market sentiment against near-term withdrawal.
Netanyahu vows Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
July 31 drops to 12%11%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks and ceasefire agreements. This hardened market sentiment against early withdrawal outcomes.
Israeli Defense Minister vows to remain in southern Lebanon despite Iran deal
July 31 jumps to 18%6%
Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon and resist any pressure to withdraw, reinforcing the stance against withdrawal and contributing to low market prices for a July 31 withdrawal.
Israeli defence minister says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon under any circumstances
July 31 plunges to 24%25%
Defense Minister Israel Katz told U.S. officials that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon under any circumstances, emphasizing a policy of maintaining a security buffer. The unequivocal refusal pushed market odds sharply lower for any July‑31 withdrawal, dropping the Yes price from 49 % to 24 % the next day.
Netanyahu declares Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in Lebanon
July 31 drops to 12%11%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli troops would stay in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks. This hardened market sentiment against near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces continued occupation of southern Lebanon
Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for a quick exit.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon 'as long as necessary'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would continue to occupy southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements. This statement significantly lowered market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Israeli leaders declare no immediate withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite international pressure. This hardened stance decreased market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu publicly declares Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
July 31 drops to 6%8%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli ground forces would stay in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks and ceasefire agreements. This statement significantly reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal, causing prices to drop sharply.
Israeli Defence Minister states Israel will stay indefinitely in lands seized in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in territories held in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, signaling no planned withdrawal and challenging ceasefire expectations. This statement further reduced market confidence in a withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu declares victory over Iran and rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing conflict and ceasefire agreements. This statement significantly reduced market expectations for a near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz declares indefinite stay in Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 rises to 14%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, directly opposing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and signaling no imminent withdrawal from Lebanon.
Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, vows to maintain forces
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared victory over Iran and stated that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no immediate withdrawal. This hardened stance likely decreased market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely
July 31 drops to 9%6%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli ground forces would stay in southern Lebanon "as long as necessary," rejecting any precondition for withdrawal. This hardened stance sharply reduced market confidence in withdrawal by any near-term date.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz declare no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
On June 15, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance significantly reduced market expectations for a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for all withdrawal dates to drop sharply.
Israeli Defense Minister states Israel will stay indefinitely in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 12%11%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in territories held in Lebanon, signaling no planned withdrawal and challenging ceasefire expectations. This statement significantly lowered market confidence in a withdrawal by July 31 and August 31.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states Israel will remain indefinitely in Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
Following a US-Iran agreement to end the war, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel would not withdraw its ground forces from Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, reinforcing the market's bearish view on withdrawal by July 31.
Israel Defense Minister vows to maintain military presence in southern Lebanon
July 31 plunges to 24%25%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire deal. This official stance significantly reduced market confidence in a withdrawal by July 31 and other near-term dates.
Israel declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 31 drops to 6%8%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This hardened stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon despite U.S.-Iran deal
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared opposition to withdrawing Israeli forces from Lebanon, signaling continued military presence despite the U.S.-Iran peace agreement. This firm stance further reduced market confidence in Israeli withdrawal by July 31, reflected in the market's low price endpoint.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz affirm no Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 rises to 14%1%
On June 15, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly declared Israel would maintain its military presence in Lebanon indefinitely, opposing withdrawal despite the US-Iran peace deal. This solidified market expectations against a July 31 withdrawal, with prices near the low point.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz opposes withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Defense Minister Katz publicly opposed withdrawing Israeli forces from Lebanon, emphasizing ongoing combat operations and rejecting withdrawal plans. This solidified the market's bearish view on a July 31 withdrawal.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz declare Israel will remain indefinitely in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, directly opposing US-Iran peace deal provisions and signaling no withdrawal, which caused market confidence in withdrawal to drop further.
Lebanese army withdraws from southern village after Israeli advance nearby
July 31 jumps to 19%5%
The Lebanese army withdrew from a base in southern Lebanon following Israeli troop advances, indicating Israel's continued military presence and territorial control, which dampened market expectations for a full withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli forces cross Litani River, intensifying ground incursion
IDF announced it had crossed the Litani River and was advancing toward Nabatieh, showing a deepening ground incursion and reducing the probability of a withdrawal by any of the forecast dates.
Report: US-Iran deal requires Israel to halt offensive in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
On June 12, reports emerged that the US-Iran deal to end regional fighting stipulates Israel must completely halt its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Israeli officials rejected withdrawal, limiting market optimism about a full withdrawal by July 31.
Lebanese army withdraws from southern village after Israeli advance
July 31 rises to 14%1%
The Lebanese army withdrew from a southern village following Israeli troop advances nearby, indicating continued Israeli military presence and operations in Lebanon, further lowering market confidence in a July 31 withdrawal.
Report claims US-Iran deal would require complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 rises to 15%3%
A report emerged stating that an ostensibly finalized US-Iran deal would require Israel to completely halt its offensive and rapidly withdraw from southern Lebanon.
Former Israeli leader warns against withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister who oversaw the 2000 withdrawal, cautioned against getting stuck again in Lebanon, reflecting internal Israeli debate. The ongoing conflict and lack of consensus on withdrawal contributed to market doubts about a near-term Israeli withdrawal announcement.
Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 dips to 12%4%
Israeli sources and Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that withdrawal from Lebanon was not part of the US-Iran deal, and Israel would maintain its military presence. This official stance further reduced market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli airstrike kills civilians in Beirut’s southern suburbs amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 13%2%
An Israeli raid on the town of Saksakiyeh killed at least two civilians, highlighting continued hostilities despite ceasefire talks. This underscored Israel's ongoing military presence and operations in Lebanon, reducing market confidence in withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli military strikes southern Lebanon amid evacuation orders
July 31 dips to 7%4%
Despite ceasefire talks, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and issued evacuation orders for several villages, indicating ongoing conflict and reducing confidence in a full withdrawal by July 31.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire without Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 16%2%
Hezbollah publicly rejected any ceasefire that did not begin with Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, reinforcing the impasse and reducing market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects U.S‑brokered Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire
Hezbollah rejected the U.S‑brokered ceasefire announced on 3 June, calling it a “partial” deal. The rejection undermined expectations of a rapid Israeli pull‑out and pushed market odds for any withdrawal date sharply lower.
Israeli forces begin limited withdrawal from some southern Lebanese villages
July 31 dips to 15%2%
Reports indicated Israeli troops began withdrawing from villages such as Debbine and Marjayoun, replaced by Lebanese army units, signaling a limited Israeli pullback but not a full withdrawal, which was insufficient for market optimism.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal as Israel vows to continue operations
July 31 dips to 14%1%
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered ceasefire, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal first, while Israel's defense minister stated ground forces would not withdraw.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal, demands Israeli withdrawal first
July 31 dips to 14%1%
Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem rejected the ceasefire agreement, insisting Israeli forces must withdraw first, and pledged to continue attacks, signaling ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of Israeli withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defense Minister says military will continue operations, no withdrawal
July 31 drops to 17%13%
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel would continue military operations in Lebanon and would not withdraw its forces, dampening market expectations for a full withdrawal and causing prices to fall.
Hezbollah rejects US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal
July 31 dips to 2%2%
Hezbollah officially rejected the ceasefire deal agreed upon by Israel and Lebanon, calling it humiliating and insisting on full Israeli withdrawal. This rejection undermined prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire and contributed to continued hostilities.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and Lebanon
July 31 drops to 14%5%
Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal as a precondition. This rejection signaled ongoing conflict and diminished prospects for Israeli withdrawal, contributing to market price declines.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal without Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Hezbollah rejected any ceasefire that did not start with Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, while Israel launched fresh attacks, indicating ongoing conflict and no imminent withdrawal, further lowering market expectations.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
Hezbollah officially rejected a ceasefire deal provisionally agreed upon by Lebanon and Israel, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. This rejection led to renewed Israeli strikes and diminished prospects for an immediate ceasefire, negatively impacting market expectations for Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli forces withdraw from Debbine area in southern Lebanon for logistical reasons
July 31 dips to 14%2%
The Israeli military withdrew from the Debbine area, allowing Lebanese army deployment, but this was a limited, logistical withdrawal not signaling full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, thus having limited market impact.
Israel announces it will continue ground operations in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and would continue military operations despite the ceasefire agreement. This official stance strongly signaled no withdrawal announcement, pushing market prices lower.
Lebanese military reports Israeli withdrawal from Debbine area amid ceasefire talks
July 31 dips to 15%3%
The Lebanese military announced that Israeli forces had withdrawn from the Debbine area, allowing Lebanese army deployment and signaling partial implementation of ceasefire terms. However, Israel continued operations elsewhere, causing mixed market reactions.
Israeli Defense Minister vows to maintain military presence in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely despite pressures, signaling no imminent withdrawal. This official stance reinforced market skepticism about a withdrawal announcement by July 31, contributing to price declines.
Israel and Lebanon announce ceasefire agreement
July 31 rises to 27%4%
Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire, raising hopes for de-escalation and a possible withdrawal, which initially increased market optimism about withdrawal prospects.
Israel and Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire but Israel refuses to withdraw
July 31 dips to 15%1%
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and creation of pilot zones under Lebanese control, but Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared that Israel would continue military operations and not withdraw from Lebanon, dampening market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Lebanese government announces pilot zones for Lebanese army control in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 9%4%
Lebanese officials declared plans to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces in pilot zones in southern Lebanon as a first step toward Israeli withdrawal, but Hezbollah rejected the deal. This partial progress raised hopes but also highlighted challenges, causing moderate market price declines for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal agreed on by Israel and Lebanon
Hezbollah officially rejected the ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel, calling the negotiations absurd and humiliating. The group demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and refused to disarm, undermining prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects partial withdrawal deal, demands full Israeli withdrawal
Hezbollah rejected the deal reached between Lebanon and Israel, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal and a full ceasefire. This rejection diminished prospects for a complete Israeli withdrawal, reflected in declining market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Israel and Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire but Israel continues operations
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Despite agreeing to a conditional ceasefire and planning further talks, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel would continue military operations in Lebanon and not withdraw at this time, reinforcing the market's bearish view on withdrawal prospects.
Israeli strikes kill civilians as ceasefire is violated on day of announcement
Israeli air‑strikes killed at least ten people in southern Lebanon on the day the ceasefire was announced, and fighting continued the next day, signalling that ground forces were not withdrawing.
Trump announces ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah after deadly clashes
July 31 dips to 16%4%
President Trump brokered a ceasefire agreement aiming to halt reciprocal strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, including commitments to avoid targeting Beirut's southern suburbs. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that operations in southern Lebanon would continue, limiting market optimism for withdrawal by July 31.
Israel and Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire with further talks planned
July 31 dips to 16%4%
Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and withdrawing operatives, with plans to reconvene talks the week of June 22. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would continue operations and not withdraw immediately, signaling ongoing military presence and reducing withdrawal expectations.
US-brokered ceasefire announced between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%8%
President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, including commitments to halt attacks, but Israel maintained military operations in southern Lebanon, limiting market confidence in full withdrawal by July 31.
Ceasefire collapses as Netanyahu rejects US claims, vows continued operations in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 15%1%
Despite US President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected it and vowed to continue military operations in southern Lebanon, signaling no withdrawal and escalating conflict tensions.
Israel rejects ceasefire claims, escalates strikes in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected US President Trump's ceasefire claims and vowed to continue military operations in southern Lebanon, escalating strikes including in Beirut's southern suburbs. This hardened stance diminished expectations of withdrawal, causing market prices to fall.
Israel deepens ground incursion in Lebanon, threatens Beirut
Reports of Israeli troops advancing near the Qalaat al‑Shqif fortress and threatening Beirut signalled deeper ground operations, further lowering withdrawal probabilities.
Egypt urges Israeli withdrawal as Israel expands ground operations in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 16%2%
Egypt reaffirmed the need for full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, while Israel announced expansion of its ground offensive in southern Lebanon, signaling continued Israeli military presence and reducing withdrawal prospects.
Israel closes beaches and suspends schools near Lebanon border amid rising tensions
The Israeli military suspended educational activities and closed beaches near the Lebanese border as ground operations deepened and cross-border exchanges intensified, reflecting ongoing conflict and reducing expectations of imminent withdrawal.
Netanyahu announces IDF advances deeper into southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 36%13%
Prime Minister Netanyahu celebrated the IDF's capture of strategic locations in southern Lebanon, signaling an expansion of Israeli ground operations and a firm military presence, which decreased market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Netanyahu celebrates IDF capture of Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon
July 31 rises to 20%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement celebrating Israeli military gains in southern Lebanon signaled continued Israeli presence and military operations, dampening prospects for withdrawal by July 31.
Israel expands ground operation in southern Lebanon, captures Beaufort Castle
December 31 drops to 37%12%
Israeli forces launched a large-scale ground operation expanding their control in southern Lebanon, including capturing strategic locations like Beaufort Castle. This military expansion indicated Israel's intent to maintain and deepen its presence rather than withdraw, negatively impacting withdrawal market probabilities.
IDF chief hints at possible symbolic withdrawals from non‑essential sites
December 31 dips to 49%3%
A minor comment from the Defence Ministry hinted at a “symbolic” withdrawal from areas that “the IDF does not need,” briefly nudging odds upward for the December‑31 market before the overall downward trend resumed.
Israeli forces advance north of Lebanon's Litani River amid ongoing conflict
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and taken control of positions in southern Lebanon, escalating the conflict and reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israel intensifies attacks on southern Lebanon, causing civilian casualties
July 31 drops to 18%7%
Israeli military escalated ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, including capturing strategic positions, signaling no imminent withdrawal and increasing conflict intensity. This military escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal, contributing to price decline.
Israel expands military ground operations in southern Lebanon amid clashes with Hezbollah
July 31 dips to 18%3%
Israel intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon, seizing strategic areas and fortifying positions to protect northern towns from Hezbollah attacks. This expansion signaled Israel's intent to maintain a military presence, reducing market confidence in withdrawal by July 31.
Israel expands ground operations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 28%2%
Israel intensified its ground military operations in southern Lebanon, seizing strategic areas and fortifying positions to protect northern towns from Hezbollah attacks. This escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal by July 31.
Israel intensifies strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Israel conducted extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah-linked sites in southern Lebanon, escalating conflict and signaling no imminent withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Israel expands ground operation beyond 'yellow line' in south Lebanon
July 31 drops to 25%11%
Israeli forces intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon, pushing beyond the previously recognized security zone and capturing strategic positions such as Beaufort Castle. This military escalation increased doubts about imminent Israeli withdrawal, negatively impacting market optimism for a July 31 withdrawal.
Israel and Hezbollah clash along strategic river amid ongoing strikes
July 31 drops to 18%6%
Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, with Israel stating it would not withdraw until Hezbollah no longer posed a threat. This ongoing conflict reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Israel steps up Lebanon offensive amid US push for Iran peace deal
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
Israeli military officials announced operations beyond the forward defense line in southern Lebanon, signaling an escalation despite ongoing US efforts to broker peace with Iran. This increased military activity reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Israel expands military ground operations in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%9%
Israel intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon, pushing beyond the Litani River and fortifying positions to protect northern towns from Hezbollah attacks. This military escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal, causing a price drop in the July 31 outcome.
Israel expands ground operations beyond security zone in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%6%
Israeli military intensified attacks and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing soldiers and civilians, signaling no imminent withdrawal and increasing market doubts about a quick exit.
Lebanese President declares Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon 'non-negotiable'
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon is a non-negotiable demand, reinforcing Lebanon's firm stance ahead of upcoming US-mediated talks. This heightened expectations for eventual Israeli withdrawal, supporting moderate market optimism.
Lebanese President demands Israeli withdrawal as non-negotiable
July 31 surges to 38%15%
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun declared Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon a non-negotiable demand ahead of US-mediated talks, emphasizing ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks. This reinforced Lebanese resolve against Israeli presence, impacting market perceptions of withdrawal likelihood.
Lebanese President declares Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon 'non-negotiable'
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun emphasized that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon remains a firm national demand pursued through negotiations, reinforcing Lebanon's stance amid ongoing conflict and ceasefire talks. This statement underscored the political pressure for withdrawal but did not indicate imminent Israeli action, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israeli National Security Minister opposes withdrawal from Lebanese territory
July 31 surges to 38%15%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir publicly stated opposition to any Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory held by Israeli forces, reinforcing the government's stance against pulling back despite external pressures. This statement contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Israeli National Security Minister vows no withdrawal from captured Lebanese territory
July 31 plunges to 20%29%
On May 25, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir declared Israel would not withdraw from any territory in Lebanon captured by its forces, signaling a firm stance against withdrawal despite ongoing US-Iran negotiations. This hardened position contributed to a market price drop for the July 31 withdrawal option from 49% to 20%.
Lebanese President declares Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon 'non-negotiable'
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun emphasized that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon is a non-negotiable demand, reinforcing Lebanon's stance ahead of upcoming US-mediated talks. This statement underscored continued tensions and the improbability of imminent Israeli withdrawal, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Israeli airstrike kills civilians in southern Lebanon amid escalating conflict
July 31 jumps to 30%7%
An Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Sir el Gharbiyeh killed at least 11 people, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
Israel intensifies military operations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
July 31 surges to 49%26%
On May 22, Israel expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, pushing deeper into Lebanese territory and increasing clashes with Hezbollah. This escalation signaled Israel's intent to maintain military presence, reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal by July 31.
Israel and Lebanon expand direct talks aiming for ceasefire and phased Israeli withdrawal
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
On May 22, Israel and Lebanon engaged in expanding direct dialogue to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire and phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, raising initial market optimism for withdrawal by July 31.
Israel and Lebanon expand talks but Lebanon demands Israeli withdrawal
July 31 jumps to 36%13%
On May 22, direct talks between Israel and Lebanon expanded to include a military track, with Lebanon insisting on Israeli withdrawal to halt conflict fallout. This increased market uncertainty about withdrawal timing, reflected in initial price volatility.
Ceasefire talks begin but conflict continues in Lebanon
Despite a formal ceasefire announced in April, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continued, with Lebanon demanding Israeli withdrawal to halt the conflict's impact on civilians. This ongoing conflict kept market uncertainty high about a withdrawal.
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
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