Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans or a fixed timeline for forceful unification, favoring coercion instead. Absent major escalations in the past 30 days—despite routine PLA military exercises deemed "reasonable" in April and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen—deterrence holds firm via U.S. missile deployments during Balikatan drills, Taiwan's legislature-approved $25 billion defense increase, and President Lai Ching-te's May 12 appreciation for U.S. arms support ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. China's economic pressures, PLA command purges, and U.S.-Iran war distractions further diminish near-term invasion feasibility, though sudden blockades or diplomatic breakdowns could alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Czy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
$23,356,221 Wol.
$23,356,221 Wol.
Tak
$23,356,221 Wol.
$23,356,221 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans or a fixed timeline for forceful unification, favoring coercion instead. Absent major escalations in the past 30 days—despite routine PLA military exercises deemed "reasonable" in April and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen—deterrence holds firm via U.S. missile deployments during Balikatan drills, Taiwan's legislature-approved $25 billion defense increase, and President Lai Ching-te's May 12 appreciation for U.S. arms support ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. China's economic pressures, PLA command purges, and U.S.-Iran war distractions further diminish near-term invasion feasibility, though sudden blockades or diplomatic breakdowns could alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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