Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA verification access since mid-2025. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction activity at weaponization-related sites like Minzadayi through October 2026, yet no operational enrichment capacity or weapons program reconstitution has been confirmed. Ongoing diplomatic talks and international scrutiny further constrain rapid advancement. Traders' strong consensus on no nuclear test before 2027 reflects these structural setbacks and the extended timeline required for full recovery, though escalation in regional tensions or accelerated rebuilding could still shift the implied probability.