Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the continued absence of large-scale PLA mobilization or direct invasion preparations in recent months. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan and limited maritime enforcement operations that began in June 2026, alongside diplomatic messaging urging the United States to handle the issue with caution. Taiwan responded with its annual Han Kuang exercises in early August, testing command flexibility and simulating responses to potential attacks. Analysts note that the economic costs of disrupting Strait traffic remain a significant deterrent, while cross-strait relations show no abrupt escalation beyond established patterns of military signaling and law-enforcement activity.