Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or direct cross-strait threats in recent months. Ongoing diplomatic channels, US security assistance to Taiwan, and Beijing's focus on economic priorities have sustained deterrence without triggering escalation. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where full-scale military action has required sustained preparation absent in current signals. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership decisions in Beijing, a major incident in the Taiwan Strait, or changes in US alliance commitments before the resolution date.