China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific remains the most recent verified launch, with no subsequent tests reported through early September. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to regional governments, consistent with prior patterns of infrequent open-ocean demonstrations. Ongoing diplomatic engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum has focused on addressing concerns from that test rather than signaling new activity, while cross-strait and broader Indo-Pacific tensions have not produced fresh triggers for additional launches. Traders therefore view the probability of another ballistic missile launch before December 31 as low, reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and China’s typical spacing of such visible exercises.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
19% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific remains the most recent verified launch, with no subsequent tests reported through early September. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to regional governments, consistent with prior patterns of infrequent open-ocean demonstrations. Ongoing diplomatic engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum has focused on addressing concerns from that test rather than signaling new activity, while cross-strait and broader Indo-Pacific tensions have not produced fresh triggers for additional launches. Traders therefore view the probability of another ballistic missile launch before December 31 as low, reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and China’s typical spacing of such visible exercises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,496Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific remains the most recent verified launch, with no subsequent tests reported through early September. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to regional governments, consistent with prior patterns of infrequent open-ocean demonstrations. Ongoing diplomatic engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum has focused on addressing concerns from that test rather than signaling new activity, while cross-strait and broader Indo-Pacific tensions have not produced fresh triggers for additional launches. Traders therefore view the probability of another ballistic missile launch before December 31 as low, reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and China’s typical spacing of such visible exercises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Wolumen
$9,496Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific remains the most recent verified launch, with no subsequent tests reported through early September. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to regional governments, consistent with prior patterns of infrequent open-ocean demonstrations. Ongoing diplomatic engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum has focused on addressing concerns from that test rather than signaling new activity, while cross-strait and broader Indo-Pacific tensions have not produced fresh triggers for additional launches. Traders therefore view the probability of another ballistic missile launch before December 31 as low, reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and China’s typical spacing of such visible exercises.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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