Traders assign a 93% implied probability against a direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to the persistence of gray-zone tactics—such as ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills—without crossing into kinetic engagement. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the strait following Taiwanese leadership statements and its condemnation of Japan’s defense assessment. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit reinforced diplomatic channels and U.S. policy continuity on arms sales, while Beijing has shifted messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition engagement. These patterns, combined with mutual preparations short of combat, sustain the market’s assessment that escalation remains contained through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
7% szansa
$3,213,016 Wol.
$3,213,016 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
7% szansa
$3,213,016 Wol.
$3,213,016 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% implied probability against a direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to the persistence of gray-zone tactics—such as ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills—without crossing into kinetic engagement. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the strait following Taiwanese leadership statements and its condemnation of Japan’s defense assessment. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit reinforced diplomatic channels and U.S. policy continuity on arms sales, while Beijing has shifted messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition engagement. These patterns, combined with mutual preparations short of combat, sustain the market’s assessment that escalation remains contained through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,213,016Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% implied probability against a direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to the persistence of gray-zone tactics—such as ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills—without crossing into kinetic engagement. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the strait following Taiwanese leadership statements and its condemnation of Japan’s defense assessment. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit reinforced diplomatic channels and U.S. policy continuity on arms sales, while Beijing has shifted messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition engagement. These patterns, combined with mutual preparations short of combat, sustain the market’s assessment that escalation remains contained through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$3,213,016Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93% implied probability against a direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to the persistence of gray-zone tactics—such as ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills—without crossing into kinetic engagement. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the strait following Taiwanese leadership statements and its condemnation of Japan’s defense assessment. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit reinforced diplomatic channels and U.S. policy continuity on arms sales, while Beijing has shifted messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition engagement. These patterns, combined with mutual preparations short of combat, sustain the market’s assessment that escalation remains contained through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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