Recent Chinese naval deployments exceeding 100 vessels, including the Liaoning carrier group conducting unannounced area-denial drills across the Western Pacific, reflect rehearsals for isolating Taiwan and deterring U.S. or allied intervention rather than preparations for a cross-strait assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry has tracked elevated but fluctuating air and sea activity near the island, while U.S. officials have assessed a full invasion before 2028 as unlikely due to persistent gaps in amphibious lift, logistics, and readiness following military purges. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure ahead of the APEC summit and Taiwan’s local elections, consistent with a preference for coercion over high-risk military action. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no invasion by end-2027 aligns with these structural and operational constraints.