Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks firm plans or readiness for such action due to high military, economic, and deterrence costs from U.S. arms sales and allied exercises like Balikatan. Recent gray-zone pressures—such as PLA naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait and Liaoning carrier maneuvers in April—remain routine responses to Taipei's policies rather than invasion rehearsals, while Taiwan bolstered defenses with a May 8 parliamentary approval of $25 billion in spending amid a $20 billion U.S. arms backlog. President Trump's ongoing May 14 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, addressing Taiwan alongside trade and Iran, signals diplomatic de-escalation priorities over escalation, sustaining the low-risk positioning absent major provocations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$557,309 Wol.
$557,309 Wol.
$557,309 Wol.
$557,309 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks firm plans or readiness for such action due to high military, economic, and deterrence costs from U.S. arms sales and allied exercises like Balikatan. Recent gray-zone pressures—such as PLA naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait and Liaoning carrier maneuvers in April—remain routine responses to Taipei's policies rather than invasion rehearsals, while Taiwan bolstered defenses with a May 8 parliamentary approval of $25 billion in spending amid a $20 billion U.S. arms backlog. President Trump's ongoing May 14 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, addressing Taiwan alongside trade and Iran, signals diplomatic de-escalation priorities over escalation, sustaining the low-risk positioning absent major provocations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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