Traders assign a 98.8% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, primarily because the narrow remaining window leaves insufficient time for the visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, and command preparations required for such an operation. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, reduced but persistent air incursions, and diplomatic isolation efforts, yet these fall short of invasion thresholds and align with longer-term coercion rather than imminent action. High economic costs, potential U.S. and allied military responses, and Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills further deter short-term escalation. Late-breaking crises, such as a major cross-strait incident or sudden policy shift, remain theoretically possible but face steep operational and political barriers before the resolution date.