North Korea's early 2026 constitutional amendments, which formally recognize South Korea as a separate bordering state and drop longstanding unification claims, represent the primary driver behind the 94% trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. These changes align with Pyongyang's "two hostile states" framework and signal a policy of assurance to avoid miscalculation, reinforced by ongoing focus on nuclear and missile deterrence rather than offensive preparations. Routine ballistic tests into eastern waters and DMZ fortifications continue without evidence of mobilization or troop buildups near the border. South Korea's military edge, bolstered by U.S. alliance commitments, combined with North Korea's economic constraints, further supports stability through the resolution window. Any shift would likely require major external disruptions, such as strained U.S. commitments or sudden leadership changes.