This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 7.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, driven by her symbolic role in Russian opposition amid ongoing authoritarian crackdowns, closely trailed by Donald Trump (6.5%) amid speculation over his inclusion in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 total nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.5% reflects his formal early-April nomination alongside Ukraine's people for wartime resistance, while UNRWA (4.7%) gains from Gaza humanitarian focus. With all contenders under 8%, the market captures high uncertainty in the secretive selection process—nominees remain confidential for 50 years—hinging on differentiators like verifiable conflict mediation, human rights advocacy, or disarmament breakthroughs. Momentum could shift with summer developments in Ukraine or the Middle East before the October 9 announcement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 7.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, driven by her symbolic role in Russian opposition amid ongoing authoritarian crackdowns, closely trailed by Donald Trump (6.5%) amid speculation over his inclusion in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 total nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.5% reflects his formal early-April nomination alongside Ukraine's people for wartime resistance, while UNRWA (4.7%) gains from Gaza humanitarian focus. With all contenders under 8%, the market captures high uncertainty in the secretive selection process—nominees remain confidential for 50 years—hinging on differentiators like verifiable conflict mediation, human rights advocacy, or disarmament breakthroughs. Momentum could shift with summer developments in Ukraine or the Middle East before the October 9 announcement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 16 2026
Pope Leo XIV visits Cameroon, calls for peace and anti-corruption measures
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV's visit to Cameroon included calls to break corruption chains and promote peace amid separatist conflict, reinforcing his peace advocacy and slightly influencing his market position.
Mar 5 2026
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 7%4%
The symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump reinforced speculation that he might be a contender, causing a further dip in his market price.
Mar 1 2026
Venezuelan government announces amnesty bill for political prisoners amid US pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced an amnesty bill potentially releasing hundreds of political prisoners, including opposition figures linked to Nobel laureate Machado, impacting her market price.
Feb 10 2026
Vladimir Putin agrees to a temporary pause in Russian energy attacks on Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%7%
The announced pause was seen as a diplomatic win for Ukraine, boosting expectations for Zelenskyy’s role in peace efforts and raising his market price.
Feb 7 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 8%6%
On February 7, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including a nuclear-capable missile, causing significant damage and casualties. This escalated the conflict and increased international focus on Ukraine's leadership, boosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's perceived chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Feb 7 2026
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland controversy
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump launched his Board of Peace to oversee ceasefire efforts in Gaza, asserting a peace leadership role despite diplomatic tensions over Greenland, influencing his market perception.
Feb 1 2026
Trilateral peace talks between US, Russia, and Ukraine held in UAE with constructive outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%
Peace talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a deal and positively affecting Zelenskyy's market price.
Jan 20 2026
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump texted Norway’s prime minister saying the Nobel snub justified his aggressive policy on Greenland, raising doubts about his Nobel prospects and further lowering his market price.
Jan 10 2026
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner, met Trump and symbolically gave him her medal, raising Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Jan 5 2026
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump rises to 18%1%
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoke with Putin, expressing optimism about peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boosting Zelenskyy's and Trump's market prices.
Dec 29 2025
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, escalating tensions
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%4%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, leading to threats against Zelenskyy and hardening Russia's negotiating stance, impacting peace talks and market perceptions of Zelenskyy's chances.
Dec 15 2025
Donald Trump delivers partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Trump’s televised speech emphasized economic blame on Democrats and announced a bonus for troops, prompting traders to view him as a less likely Nobel candidate, driving his price down sharply.
Dec 10 2025
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid US pressure
Venezuela’s acting government released dozens of political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, under US pressure. This development was seen as a positive sign for Machado’s influence but did not significantly raise her market price.
Dec 1 2025
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%
María Corina Machado held a large rally in Madrid, emphasizing her opposition leadership and praising Trump’s role in Venezuela’s transition, while declining a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. This event highlighted her international profile but did not improve her market price, which remained low.
Nov 10 2025
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 25%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced Trump's market price positively amid geopolitical attention.
Oct 21 2025
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This undercut speculation that Machado could give her prize to Trump, affecting market prices for both.
Oct 20 2025
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This event boosted Trump's market price and caused a sharp drop in Machado's own price as the market reassessed their relative chances.
Oct 19 2025
Nobel Institute reiterates prize cannot be transferred or shared after Machado’s gesture
Donald Trump jumps to 27%8%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that Nobel prizes cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, tempering expectations that Trump could inherit the award and contributing to a rapid drop in his price the following day.
Oct 18 2025
Donald Trump receives Nobel Peace Prize medal from María Corina Machado at the White House
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a closed‑door meeting, prompting a surge in market confidence that Trump could be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his price from 11% to 19% the next day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 7.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, driven by her symbolic role in Russian opposition amid ongoing authoritarian crackdowns, closely trailed by Donald Trump (6.5%) amid speculation over his inclusion in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 total nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.5% reflects his formal early-April nomination alongside Ukraine's people for wartime resistance, while UNRWA (4.7%) gains from Gaza humanitarian focus. With all contenders under 8%, the market captures high uncertainty in the secretive selection process—nominees remain confidential for 50 years—hinging on differentiators like verifiable conflict mediation, human rights advocacy, or disarmament breakthroughs. Momentum could shift with summer developments in Ukraine or the Middle East before the October 9 announcement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 7.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, driven by her symbolic role in Russian opposition amid ongoing authoritarian crackdowns, closely trailed by Donald Trump (6.5%) amid speculation over his inclusion in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 total nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.5% reflects his formal early-April nomination alongside Ukraine's people for wartime resistance, while UNRWA (4.7%) gains from Gaza humanitarian focus. With all contenders under 8%, the market captures high uncertainty in the secretive selection process—nominees remain confidential for 50 years—hinging on differentiators like verifiable conflict mediation, human rights advocacy, or disarmament breakthroughs. Momentum could shift with summer developments in Ukraine or the Middle East before the October 9 announcement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 16 2026
Pope Leo XIV visits Cameroon, calls for peace and anti-corruption measures
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV's visit to Cameroon included calls to break corruption chains and promote peace amid separatist conflict, reinforcing his peace advocacy and slightly influencing his market position.
Mar 5 2026
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 7%4%
The symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump reinforced speculation that he might be a contender, causing a further dip in his market price.
Mar 1 2026
Venezuelan government announces amnesty bill for political prisoners amid US pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced an amnesty bill potentially releasing hundreds of political prisoners, including opposition figures linked to Nobel laureate Machado, impacting her market price.
Feb 10 2026
Vladimir Putin agrees to a temporary pause in Russian energy attacks on Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%7%
The announced pause was seen as a diplomatic win for Ukraine, boosting expectations for Zelenskyy’s role in peace efforts and raising his market price.
Feb 7 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 8%6%
On February 7, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including a nuclear-capable missile, causing significant damage and casualties. This escalated the conflict and increased international focus on Ukraine's leadership, boosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's perceived chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Feb 7 2026
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland controversy
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump launched his Board of Peace to oversee ceasefire efforts in Gaza, asserting a peace leadership role despite diplomatic tensions over Greenland, influencing his market perception.
Feb 1 2026
Trilateral peace talks between US, Russia, and Ukraine held in UAE with constructive outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%
Peace talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a deal and positively affecting Zelenskyy's market price.
Jan 20 2026
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump texted Norway’s prime minister saying the Nobel snub justified his aggressive policy on Greenland, raising doubts about his Nobel prospects and further lowering his market price.
Jan 10 2026
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner, met Trump and symbolically gave him her medal, raising Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Jan 5 2026
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump rises to 18%1%
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoke with Putin, expressing optimism about peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boosting Zelenskyy's and Trump's market prices.
Dec 29 2025
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, escalating tensions
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%4%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, leading to threats against Zelenskyy and hardening Russia's negotiating stance, impacting peace talks and market perceptions of Zelenskyy's chances.
Dec 15 2025
Donald Trump delivers partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Trump’s televised speech emphasized economic blame on Democrats and announced a bonus for troops, prompting traders to view him as a less likely Nobel candidate, driving his price down sharply.
Dec 10 2025
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid US pressure
Venezuela’s acting government released dozens of political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, under US pressure. This development was seen as a positive sign for Machado’s influence but did not significantly raise her market price.
Dec 1 2025
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%
María Corina Machado held a large rally in Madrid, emphasizing her opposition leadership and praising Trump’s role in Venezuela’s transition, while declining a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. This event highlighted her international profile but did not improve her market price, which remained low.
Nov 10 2025
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 25%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced Trump's market price positively amid geopolitical attention.
Oct 21 2025
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This undercut speculation that Machado could give her prize to Trump, affecting market prices for both.
Oct 20 2025
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This event boosted Trump's market price and caused a sharp drop in Machado's own price as the market reassessed their relative chances.
Oct 19 2025
Nobel Institute reiterates prize cannot be transferred or shared after Machado’s gesture
Donald Trump jumps to 27%8%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that Nobel prizes cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, tempering expectations that Trump could inherit the award and contributing to a rapid drop in his price the following day.
Oct 18 2025
Donald Trump receives Nobel Peace Prize medal from María Corina Machado at the White House
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a closed‑door meeting, prompting a surge in market confidence that Trump could be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his price from 11% to 19% the next day.
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"Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 20 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Julia Nawalna" z 8%, za nim "Donald Trump" z 7%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 8¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 8% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" wygenerował $16.5 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Oct 16, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026", przeglądaj 20 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
To szeroko otwarty rynek. Obecnym liderem dla "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" jest "Julia Nawalna" z zaledwie 8%, a za nim "Donald Trump" z 7%. Brak wyniku z wyraźną większością — traderzy widzą to jako wysoce niepewne, co może stwarzać unikalne okazje handlowe. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, więc dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby obserwować ewolucję prawdopodobieństw.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $16.5 million wolumenu na "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 8¢ za "Julia Nawalna" na rynku "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 8% szansy na to, że "Julia Nawalna" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 8¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 92¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około Oct 10, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026" ma aktywną społeczność z 172 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Pokojowa Nagroda Nobla 2026". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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Często zadawane pytania