Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Iran’s Supreme Leader, appointed by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in a February 28 US-Israel strike, centers trader focus on his continued presence inside the country amid an active conflict. He has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances for over six months, citing security threats and possible injuries sustained in the initial attack, with regime officials and President Pezeshkian asserting he remains in control from undisclosed locations. No verified reports indicate plans or movements abroad; analysts and sources emphasize internal security protocols and the risks of leadership vacuum during wartime, reinforced by historical patterns of Iranian leaders staying in-country. Ongoing diplomatic signals around the Strait of Hormuz and potential talks could influence stability but have not altered the emphasis on domestic consolidation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$117,848 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
3%
December 31
4%
$117,848 Wol.
October 31
$119 Wol.
3%
December 31
$816 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Iran’s Supreme Leader, appointed by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in a February 28 US-Israel strike, centers trader focus on his continued presence inside the country amid an active conflict. He has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances for over six months, citing security threats and possible injuries sustained in the initial attack, with regime officials and President Pezeshkian asserting he remains in control from undisclosed locations. No verified reports indicate plans or movements abroad; analysts and sources emphasize internal security protocols and the risks of leadership vacuum during wartime, reinforced by historical patterns of Iranian leaders staying in-country. Ongoing diplomatic signals around the Strait of Hormuz and potential talks could influence stability but have not altered the emphasis on domestic consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$117,848Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Iran’s Supreme Leader, appointed by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in a February 28 US-Israel strike, centers trader focus on his continued presence inside the country amid an active conflict. He has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances for over six months, citing security threats and possible injuries sustained in the initial attack, with regime officials and President Pezeshkian asserting he remains in control from undisclosed locations. No verified reports indicate plans or movements abroad; analysts and sources emphasize internal security protocols and the risks of leadership vacuum during wartime, reinforced by historical patterns of Iranian leaders staying in-country. Ongoing diplomatic signals around the Strait of Hormuz and potential talks could influence stability but have not altered the emphasis on domestic consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$117,848Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Iran’s Supreme Leader, appointed by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in a February 28 US-Israel strike, centers trader focus on his continued presence inside the country amid an active conflict. He has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances for over six months, citing security threats and possible injuries sustained in the initial attack, with regime officials and President Pezeshkian asserting he remains in control from undisclosed locations. No verified reports indicate plans or movements abroad; analysts and sources emphasize internal security protocols and the risks of leadership vacuum during wartime, reinforced by historical patterns of Iranian leaders staying in-country. Ongoing diplomatic signals around the Strait of Hormuz and potential talks could influence stability but have not altered the emphasis on domestic consolidation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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