China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5 percent, set during the March National People's Congress, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0-5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts on resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded infrastructure spending that offset persistently weak household consumption and property-sector drag. Analysts at firms including Goldman Sachs and Vanguard revised full-year projections upward to 4.7-4.8 percent after the strong start, though they note momentum is likely to ease amid softening global demand, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East tensions, and limited domestic reflation. These factors have concentrated the implied probability on outcomes near the government target while keeping higher or lower brackets at low single-digit levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 22.9%
6.0-7.0% 2.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.5%
$527,908 Wol.
$527,908 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
2%
4.0–5.0%
73%
5.0–6.0%
23%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 22.9%
6.0-7.0% 2.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.5%
$527,908 Wol.
$527,908 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$41,430 Wol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$40,608 Wol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$21,014 Wol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$43,445 Wol.
2%
4.0–5.0%
$135,981 Wol.
73%
5.0–6.0%
$49,192 Wol.
23%
6.0-7.0%
$48,008 Wol.
3%
7.0–8.0%
$44,478 Wol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$20,196 Wol.
<1%
9.0%+
$83,556 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5 percent, set during the March National People's Congress, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0-5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts on resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded infrastructure spending that offset persistently weak household consumption and property-sector drag. Analysts at firms including Goldman Sachs and Vanguard revised full-year projections upward to 4.7-4.8 percent after the strong start, though they note momentum is likely to ease amid softening global demand, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East tensions, and limited domestic reflation. These factors have concentrated the implied probability on outcomes near the government target while keeping higher or lower brackets at low single-digit levels.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$527,908Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5 percent, set during the March National People's Congress, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0-5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts on resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded infrastructure spending that offset persistently weak household consumption and property-sector drag. Analysts at firms including Goldman Sachs and Vanguard revised full-year projections upward to 4.7-4.8 percent after the strong start, though they note momentum is likely to ease amid softening global demand, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East tensions, and limited domestic reflation. These factors have concentrated the implied probability on outcomes near the government target while keeping higher or lower brackets at low single-digit levels.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$527,908Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5 percent, set during the March National People's Congress, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0-5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts on resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded infrastructure spending that offset persistently weak household consumption and property-sector drag. Analysts at firms including Goldman Sachs and Vanguard revised full-year projections upward to 4.7-4.8 percent after the strong start, though they note momentum is likely to ease amid softening global demand, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East tensions, and limited domestic reflation. These factors have concentrated the implied probability on outcomes near the government target while keeping higher or lower brackets at low single-digit levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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