China’s 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range according to trader consensus, reflecting the government’s March target of 4.5–5% and near-universal forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and IMF that cluster around 4.4–4.7%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 moderating to roughly 4.3% amid subdued domestic demand and continued property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and industrial output. Policymakers have signaled measured additional support without aggressive stimulus, keeping the trajectory aligned with the annual goal through year-end. This combination of official guidance, realized half-year results, and structural headwinds has anchored market pricing in the narrow band that matches the prevailing outlook.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,258 Wol.
$875,258 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,258 Wol.
$875,258 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 Wol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Wol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Wol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,148 Wol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,722 Wol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 Wol.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$82,074 Wol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Wol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Wol.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range according to trader consensus, reflecting the government’s March target of 4.5–5% and near-universal forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and IMF that cluster around 4.4–4.7%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 moderating to roughly 4.3% amid subdued domestic demand and continued property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and industrial output. Policymakers have signaled measured additional support without aggressive stimulus, keeping the trajectory aligned with the annual goal through year-end. This combination of official guidance, realized half-year results, and structural headwinds has anchored market pricing in the narrow band that matches the prevailing outlook.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$875,258Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range according to trader consensus, reflecting the government’s March target of 4.5–5% and near-universal forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and IMF that cluster around 4.4–4.7%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 moderating to roughly 4.3% amid subdued domestic demand and continued property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and industrial output. Policymakers have signaled measured additional support without aggressive stimulus, keeping the trajectory aligned with the annual goal through year-end. This combination of official guidance, realized half-year results, and structural headwinds has anchored market pricing in the narrow band that matches the prevailing outlook.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$875,258Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range according to trader consensus, reflecting the government’s March target of 4.5–5% and near-universal forecasts from the OECD, World Bank, ADB, and IMF that cluster around 4.4–4.7%. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q2 moderating to roughly 4.3% amid subdued domestic demand and continued property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and industrial output. Policymakers have signaled measured additional support without aggressive stimulus, keeping the trajectory aligned with the annual goal through year-end. This combination of official guidance, realized half-year results, and structural headwinds has anchored market pricing in the narrow band that matches the prevailing outlook.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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