Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
<0.5% 28.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,075 Wol.
$28,075 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
29%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
24%
>2.5%
33%
<0.5% 28.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,075 Wol.
$28,075 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 Wol.
29%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 Wol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 Wol.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,504 Wol.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,819 Wol.
24%
>2.5%
$4,061 Wol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,075Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$28,075Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion. Strong business investment in AI-related equipment and software, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, underpins the 43.5% implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%, while tariff pass-through and tighter immigration policies introduce downward pressure that supports the combined 43.3% odds on sub-2.0% outcomes. Professional forecasters’ consensus, including the Philadelphia Fed survey projecting 2.5% and CBO at 2.2%, aligns with these market-implied odds, with upcoming Q2 GDP and labor-market releases likely to refine rate expectations further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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