Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which escalated in late February 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil exports. Shipping data show daily transits averaging just 5-10 vessels in May, down from a pre-crisis norm of 60, with many operators avoiding the route amid Iranian demands for pre-transit declarations and sporadic attacks. U.S. naval escort operations, including Project Freedom, have enabled limited passages by select tankers and bulk carriers since early May, though insurance premiums remain elevated and throughput sits at approximately 5% of normal levels. Traders are monitoring potential catalysts such as further U.S. guidance, Iranian policy shifts, or de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution, which could influence implied probabilities for resumed activity in this critical energy artery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
$468,280 Wol.
May 31, 2026
20+
46%
40+
18%
60+
8%
80+
5%
$468,280 Wol.
20+
$108,141 Wol.
46%
40+
$115,107 Wol.
18%
60+
$64,882 Wol.
8%
80+
$180,150 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which escalated in late February 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil exports. Shipping data show daily transits averaging just 5-10 vessels in May, down from a pre-crisis norm of 60, with many operators avoiding the route amid Iranian demands for pre-transit declarations and sporadic attacks. U.S. naval escort operations, including Project Freedom, have enabled limited passages by select tankers and bulk carriers since early May, though insurance premiums remain elevated and throughput sits at approximately 5% of normal levels. Traders are monitoring potential catalysts such as further U.S. guidance, Iranian policy shifts, or de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution, which could influence implied probabilities for resumed activity in this critical energy artery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Wolumen
$468,280Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which escalated in late February 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil exports. Shipping data show daily transits averaging just 5-10 vessels in May, down from a pre-crisis norm of 60, with many operators avoiding the route amid Iranian demands for pre-transit declarations and sporadic attacks. U.S. naval escort operations, including Project Freedom, have enabled limited passages by select tankers and bulk carriers since early May, though insurance premiums remain elevated and throughput sits at approximately 5% of normal levels. Traders are monitoring potential catalysts such as further U.S. guidance, Iranian policy shifts, or de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution, which could influence implied probabilities for resumed activity in this critical energy artery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$468,280Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which escalated in late February 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil exports. Shipping data show daily transits averaging just 5-10 vessels in May, down from a pre-crisis norm of 60, with many operators avoiding the route amid Iranian demands for pre-transit declarations and sporadic attacks. U.S. naval escort operations, including Project Freedom, have enabled limited passages by select tankers and bulk carriers since early May, though insurance premiums remain elevated and throughput sits at approximately 5% of normal levels. Traders are monitoring potential catalysts such as further U.S. guidance, Iranian policy shifts, or de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution, which could influence implied probabilities for resumed activity in this critical energy artery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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