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Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

icon for Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?
Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

0 (0 pb) 72.0%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.9%

Polymarket

$26,479,798 Wol.

0 (0 pb) 72.0%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.9%

Polymarket

$26,479,798 Wol.

0 (0 pb)

$4,113,271 Wol.

72%

1 (25 pb)

$1,228,368 Wol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,176,139 Wol.

7%

3 (75 pb)

$1,082,394 Wol.

3%

4 (100 pb)

$1,184,963 Wol.

2%

5 (125 pb)

$1,396,726 Wol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,448,755 Wol.

1%

7 (175 pb)

$1,313,990 Wol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$1,701,883 Wol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$2,422,592 Wol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,066,861 Wol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$3,220,535 Wol.

<1%

12+ (300+ pb)

$2,123,335 Wol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy following the hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, alongside elevated core PCE near 3.3%. The FOMC held the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 amid hawkish dissents and geopolitical oil spikes from Iran tensions, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut projection to 3.4% by year-end. Robust labor data further diminishes easing urgency, with futures implying 97.5% odds of no change at the June meeting; a single 25-basis-point cut carries 15.5% odds amid ongoing uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,479,798
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy following the hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, alongside elevated core PCE near 3.3%. The FOMC held the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 amid hawkish dissents and geopolitical oil spikes from Iran tensions, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut projection to 3.4% by year-end. Robust labor data further diminishes easing urgency, with futures implying 97.5% odds of no change at the June meeting; a single 25-basis-point cut carries 15.5% odds amid ongoing uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,479,798
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 13 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "0 (0 pb)" z 72%, za nim "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 72¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 72% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

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Aby handlować na "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?", przeglądaj 13 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" jest "0 (0 pb)" z 72%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 72% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.