The September 2026 FOMC decision to hike the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00% and revised projections showing a 4.1% median midpoint for both year-end 2026 and 2027 reflect sticky inflation, with core PCE now expected at 3.4% for 2026. This policy path, backed by 16 of 18 participants anticipating at least one additional 25-basis-point increase this year, has shifted trader focus toward whether rates will test 4.25% before year-end. The October 27-28 meeting, absent new projections, and upcoming CPI releases will test whether labor-market resilience and elevated price pressures sustain the higher-for-longer stance or allow easing signals to emerge.