Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. The September 2026 FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% range, with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median endpoint of 4.1% for the year amid upward revisions to inflation forecasts and resilient growth. This hawkish shift, driven by persistent price pressures above the 2% target, has concentrated implied probabilities on outcomes near 4.0-4.25%. A softer September jobs report has since lowered near-term hike odds for October, though December remains a focal point for potential further tightening before year-end policy stabilization.