Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations for a September FOMC move, shifting futures pricing toward a closer call or possible delay into October or December, though three dissents at the July meeting underscore hawkish concerns. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, nonfarm payrolls, and the September policy decision for signals on whether labor-market softening will outweigh sticky price pressures in the Fed’s reaction function.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,201,967 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
33%
October Meeting
46%
$2,201,967 Wol.
September Meeting
$811,520 Wol.
33%
October Meeting
$430,447 Wol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations for a September FOMC move, shifting futures pricing toward a closer call or possible delay into October or December, though three dissents at the July meeting underscore hawkish concerns. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, nonfarm payrolls, and the September policy decision for signals on whether labor-market softening will outweigh sticky price pressures in the Fed’s reaction function.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,201,967Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations for a September FOMC move, shifting futures pricing toward a closer call or possible delay into October or December, though three dissents at the July meeting underscore hawkish concerns. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, nonfarm payrolls, and the September policy decision for signals on whether labor-market softening will outweigh sticky price pressures in the Fed’s reaction function.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$2,201,967Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations for a September FOMC move, shifting futures pricing toward a closer call or possible delay into October or December, though three dissents at the July meeting underscore hawkish concerns. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, nonfarm payrolls, and the September policy decision for signals on whether labor-market softening will outweigh sticky price pressures in the Fed’s reaction function.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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