Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 because the FOMC has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting amid resilient labor market data and sticky core inflation readings. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict have pushed headline inflation higher, prompting brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay projected cuts until late 2026 or beyond while CME FedWatch futures now price a roughly 71.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged through year-end. The March dot plot still signals one potential easing later this year, yet recent CPI and PCE prints have tempered expectations for near-term policy easing and kept the balance of risks tilted toward caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, May inflation releases, and any further geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,100,808 Wol.
$1,100,808 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,100,808 Wol.
$1,100,808 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 because the FOMC has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting amid resilient labor market data and sticky core inflation readings. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict have pushed headline inflation higher, prompting brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay projected cuts until late 2026 or beyond while CME FedWatch futures now price a roughly 71.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged through year-end. The March dot plot still signals one potential easing later this year, yet recent CPI and PCE prints have tempered expectations for near-term policy easing and kept the balance of risks tilted toward caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, May inflation releases, and any further geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,100,808Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 because the FOMC has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting amid resilient labor market data and sticky core inflation readings. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict have pushed headline inflation higher, prompting brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay projected cuts until late 2026 or beyond while CME FedWatch futures now price a roughly 71.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged through year-end. The March dot plot still signals one potential easing later this year, yet recent CPI and PCE prints have tempered expectations for near-term policy easing and kept the balance of risks tilted toward caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, May inflation releases, and any further geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,100,808Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 because the FOMC has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting amid resilient labor market data and sticky core inflation readings. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict have pushed headline inflation higher, prompting brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay projected cuts until late 2026 or beyond while CME FedWatch futures now price a roughly 71.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged through year-end. The March dot plot still signals one potential easing later this year, yet recent CPI and PCE prints have tempered expectations for near-term policy easing and kept the balance of risks tilted toward caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, May inflation releases, and any further geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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