Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks and tariff effects, has shifted market-implied odds toward possible 2026 rate hikes, with some FOMC participants penciling in increases. Counterbalancing this, July’s tepid jobs report and softening labor market data have reduced near-term hike probabilities and reinforced expectations for steady policy at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. Trader consensus at roughly even odds on any 2026 hike reflects these dual risks to the Fed’s mandate. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, employment reports, and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh data could decisively tilt the balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
50% szansa
$7,449,200 Wol.
$7,449,200 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
50% szansa
$7,449,200 Wol.
$7,449,200 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks and tariff effects, has shifted market-implied odds toward possible 2026 rate hikes, with some FOMC participants penciling in increases. Counterbalancing this, July’s tepid jobs report and softening labor market data have reduced near-term hike probabilities and reinforced expectations for steady policy at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. Trader consensus at roughly even odds on any 2026 hike reflects these dual risks to the Fed’s mandate. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, employment reports, and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh data could decisively tilt the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,449,200Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks and tariff effects, has shifted market-implied odds toward possible 2026 rate hikes, with some FOMC participants penciling in increases. Counterbalancing this, July’s tepid jobs report and softening labor market data have reduced near-term hike probabilities and reinforced expectations for steady policy at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. Trader consensus at roughly even odds on any 2026 hike reflects these dual risks to the Fed’s mandate. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, employment reports, and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh data could decisively tilt the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$7,449,200Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price shocks and tariff effects, has shifted market-implied odds toward possible 2026 rate hikes, with some FOMC participants penciling in increases. Counterbalancing this, July’s tepid jobs report and softening labor market data have reduced near-term hike probabilities and reinforced expectations for steady policy at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. Trader consensus at roughly even odds on any 2026 hike reflects these dual risks to the Fed’s mandate. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, employment reports, and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh data could decisively tilt the balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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