Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at an 83.5% implied probability, driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rising 0.6% monthly amid persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target. Resilient labor data, including April payroll gains of 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, alongside the Fed's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, have prompted hawkish repricing in Fed funds futures, diminishing near-term rate cut odds. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI release loom as key catalysts that could reinforce or test this steady-policy stance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 84%
Other 16%
Pause–Cut–Pause 14%
Pause–Cut–Cut 10.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
10%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
84%
Pause–Pause–Cut
20%
Pause–Cut–Pause
14%
Pause–Cut–Cut
11%
Other
16%
Pause–Pause–Pause 84%
Other 16%
Pause–Cut–Pause 14%
Pause–Cut–Cut 10.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$83 Wol.
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$105 Wol.
10%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$155 Wol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$79 Wol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$349 Wol.
84%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$146 Wol.
20%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$105 Wol.
14%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$105 Wol.
11%
Other
$105 Wol.
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at an 83.5% implied probability, driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rising 0.6% monthly amid persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target. Resilient labor data, including April payroll gains of 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, alongside the Fed's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, have prompted hawkish repricing in Fed funds futures, diminishing near-term rate cut odds. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI release loom as key catalysts that could reinforce or test this steady-policy stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,235Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at an 83.5% implied probability, driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rising 0.6% monthly amid persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target. Resilient labor data, including April payroll gains of 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, alongside the Fed's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, have prompted hawkish repricing in Fed funds futures, diminishing near-term rate cut odds. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI release loom as key catalysts that could reinforce or test this steady-policy stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$1,235Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at an 83.5% implied probability, driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI rising 0.6% monthly amid persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target. Resilient labor data, including April payroll gains of 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, alongside the Fed's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, have prompted hawkish repricing in Fed funds futures, diminishing near-term rate cut odds. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI release loom as key catalysts that could reinforce or test this steady-policy stance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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