Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.1%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Wol.
$687,464 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.1%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Wol.
$687,464 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 Wol.
3%
No change
$136,748 Wol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Wol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Wol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$687,464Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$687,464Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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