Elevated inflation readings and a resilient U.S. economy have anchored trader expectations for at least one more Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflected in the 65% market-implied probability for a "Yes" outcome. The September 2026 CPI print of 3.7% year-over-year, with core measures remaining above the 2% target amid persistent shelter costs, prompted the FOMC to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00% in September before holding steady at the late-October meeting. Officials' communications, including dissents favoring immediate action and dot-plot projections implying further tightening, underscore concerns over broad price pressures and solid labor-market conditions. Markets now focus on the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, where incoming November CPI and employment data could confirm or temper the path for additional 25-basis-point moves before year-end.