Recent soft September employment data, showing just 29,000 jobs added, has lowered the implied probability of an October 27–28 rate hike while reinforcing expectations for a December 8–9 increase, aligning with the leading Hike–Pause–Hike path at 68.5%. The Fed’s September 15–16 decision to raise the target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% was unanimous, and the updated dot plot projected a 4.1% median year-end 2026 federal funds rate, signaling one additional quarter-point move. Persistent inflation above target, with core PCE projections at 3.4%, supports the hawkish tilt despite mixed labor readings. October CPI and labor releases ahead of the next FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for these market-implied odds.