Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, combined with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and firmer core readings, anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent strong payrolls and a stable unemployment rate near 4.1-4.2% have reinforced a data-dependent stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting the policy path higher and pushing rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027. This backdrop supports the 57% implied probability of no change at the January meeting, while the 23% odds of a 25 basis point hike reflect residual hawkish tilt if price pressures persist. Upcoming September and December 2026 decisions, plus fresh inflation and labor data, remain key swing factors for the rate path into early next year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 57%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,044 Wol.
$71,044 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
57%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,044 Wol.
$71,044 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Wol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Wol.
14%
No change
$21,182 Wol.
57%
25 bps increase
$17,021 Wol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, combined with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and firmer core readings, anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent strong payrolls and a stable unemployment rate near 4.1-4.2% have reinforced a data-dependent stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting the policy path higher and pushing rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027. This backdrop supports the 57% implied probability of no change at the January meeting, while the 23% odds of a 25 basis point hike reflect residual hawkish tilt if price pressures persist. Upcoming September and December 2026 decisions, plus fresh inflation and labor data, remain key swing factors for the rate path into early next year.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$71,044Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, combined with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and firmer core readings, anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent strong payrolls and a stable unemployment rate near 4.1-4.2% have reinforced a data-dependent stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting the policy path higher and pushing rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027. This backdrop supports the 57% implied probability of no change at the January meeting, while the 23% odds of a 25 basis point hike reflect residual hawkish tilt if price pressures persist. Upcoming September and December 2026 decisions, plus fresh inflation and labor data, remain key swing factors for the rate path into early next year.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$71,044Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, combined with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and firmer core readings, anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent strong payrolls and a stable unemployment rate near 4.1-4.2% have reinforced a data-dependent stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting the policy path higher and pushing rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027. This backdrop supports the 57% implied probability of no change at the January meeting, while the 23% odds of a 25 basis point hike reflect residual hawkish tilt if price pressures persist. Upcoming September and December 2026 decisions, plus fresh inflation and labor data, remain key swing factors for the rate path into early next year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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