Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Wol.
$71,022 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Wol.
$71,022 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Wol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Wol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Wol.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Wol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,974 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$71,022Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$71,022Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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