Trump’s public expressions of continued confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike—despite administration calls for lower borrowing costs—anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt. Warsh, confirmed by the Senate in May after Trump’s nomination, maintains close ties with Treasury officials and has framed policy decisions around the 2% inflation target and economic strength rather than political pressure. A June Supreme Court ruling explicitly shielded Federal Reserve leaders from at-will dismissal, reinforcing institutional barriers. Tail risks remain limited but include sustained hawkish FOMC actions widening yield divergences or renewed midterm-election pressures prompting escalation, though current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
1% szansa
$30,017 Wol.
$30,017 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% szansa
$30,017 Wol.
$30,017 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s public expressions of continued confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike—despite administration calls for lower borrowing costs—anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt. Warsh, confirmed by the Senate in May after Trump’s nomination, maintains close ties with Treasury officials and has framed policy decisions around the 2% inflation target and economic strength rather than political pressure. A June Supreme Court ruling explicitly shielded Federal Reserve leaders from at-will dismissal, reinforcing institutional barriers. Tail risks remain limited but include sustained hawkish FOMC actions widening yield divergences or renewed midterm-election pressures prompting escalation, though current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$30,017Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s public expressions of continued confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike—despite administration calls for lower borrowing costs—anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt. Warsh, confirmed by the Senate in May after Trump’s nomination, maintains close ties with Treasury officials and has framed policy decisions around the 2% inflation target and economic strength rather than political pressure. A June Supreme Court ruling explicitly shielded Federal Reserve leaders from at-will dismissal, reinforcing institutional barriers. Tail risks remain limited but include sustained hawkish FOMC actions widening yield divergences or renewed midterm-election pressures prompting escalation, though current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$30,017Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trump’s public expressions of continued confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike—despite administration calls for lower borrowing costs—anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt. Warsh, confirmed by the Senate in May after Trump’s nomination, maintains close ties with Treasury officials and has framed policy decisions around the 2% inflation target and economic strength rather than political pressure. A June Supreme Court ruling explicitly shielded Federal Reserve leaders from at-will dismissal, reinforcing institutional barriers. Tail risks remain limited but include sustained hawkish FOMC actions widening yield divergences or renewed midterm-election pressures prompting escalation, though current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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