Trump’s recent public affirmations of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed in May 2026, underpin the 96.3% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4% federal funds target range—defying White House calls for cuts amid persistent inflation—Trump directed criticism at the broader FOMC while stating he remains “relying on Kevin” and supports Warsh’s independence. Structural factors reinforce this consensus: Warsh holds a 14-year board term with no easy removal mechanism, and the administration lacks vacancies to install alternatives. Tail risks include escalation if further tightening clashes with administration priorities or mid-term political pressures intensify, though current trader positioning reflects limited scope for such outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
4% szansa
$24,103 Wol.
$24,103 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$24,103 Wol.
$24,103 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public affirmations of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed in May 2026, underpin the 96.3% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4% federal funds target range—defying White House calls for cuts amid persistent inflation—Trump directed criticism at the broader FOMC while stating he remains “relying on Kevin” and supports Warsh’s independence. Structural factors reinforce this consensus: Warsh holds a 14-year board term with no easy removal mechanism, and the administration lacks vacancies to install alternatives. Tail risks include escalation if further tightening clashes with administration priorities or mid-term political pressures intensify, though current trader positioning reflects limited scope for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,103Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public affirmations of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed in May 2026, underpin the 96.3% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4% federal funds target range—defying White House calls for cuts amid persistent inflation—Trump directed criticism at the broader FOMC while stating he remains “relying on Kevin” and supports Warsh’s independence. Structural factors reinforce this consensus: Warsh holds a 14-year board term with no easy removal mechanism, and the administration lacks vacancies to install alternatives. Tail risks include escalation if further tightening clashes with administration priorities or mid-term political pressures intensify, though current trader positioning reflects limited scope for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$24,103Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public affirmations of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed in May 2026, underpin the 96.3% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4% federal funds target range—defying White House calls for cuts amid persistent inflation—Trump directed criticism at the broader FOMC while stating he remains “relying on Kevin” and supports Warsh’s independence. Structural factors reinforce this consensus: Warsh holds a 14-year board term with no easy removal mechanism, and the administration lacks vacancies to install alternatives. Tail risks include escalation if further tightening clashes with administration priorities or mid-term political pressures intensify, though current trader positioning reflects limited scope for such outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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