Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
4% szansa
$24,103 Wol.
$24,103 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$24,103 Wol.
$24,103 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,103Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$24,103Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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