Trump’s second-term position shows no verified signals of an imminent resignation before December 31, 2026, supporting the 98.1% trader consensus on “No.” Recent midterm losses have shifted Congress to Democratic control and positioned him as a lame duck, yet historical patterns demonstrate that presidents rarely depart early without acute incapacity, criminal conviction, or overwhelming institutional pressure—none of which are confirmed here. Public statements, physician reports affirming fitness, and polling on resignation support remain limited to partisan or speculative commentary without primary evidence of intent. Realistic scenarios that could still alter odds include sudden health developments triggering 25th Amendment procedures or rapid escalation of scandals prompting party negotiations for a transition to Vice President Vance, though both remain low-probability events in the narrow remaining window.