**Persistent above-target inflation and recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments have anchored trader sentiment toward limited policy easing in the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 28–29 meeting (9–3 vote), with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting concerns over inflation readings near 3.4%–3.5% CPI and firm labor market conditions (unemployment at 4.2%). This outcome, combined with forward-looking signals of a hawkish tilt, supports elevated implied probabilities for “Other” sequences that incorporate potential hikes while keeping Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15–16 meeting, informed by July–August CPI and PCE releases, and the October 27–28 decision, where markets continue to price a data-dependent path versus official guidance favoring price stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Wol.
$657,789 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Wol.
$657,789 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Wol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Wol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Wol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Wol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Wol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments have anchored trader sentiment toward limited policy easing in the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 28–29 meeting (9–3 vote), with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting concerns over inflation readings near 3.4%–3.5% CPI and firm labor market conditions (unemployment at 4.2%). This outcome, combined with forward-looking signals of a hawkish tilt, supports elevated implied probabilities for “Other” sequences that incorporate potential hikes while keeping Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15–16 meeting, informed by July–August CPI and PCE releases, and the October 27–28 decision, where markets continue to price a data-dependent path versus official guidance favoring price stability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$657,789Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments have anchored trader sentiment toward limited policy easing in the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 28–29 meeting (9–3 vote), with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting concerns over inflation readings near 3.4%–3.5% CPI and firm labor market conditions (unemployment at 4.2%). This outcome, combined with forward-looking signals of a hawkish tilt, supports elevated implied probabilities for “Other” sequences that incorporate potential hikes while keeping Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15–16 meeting, informed by July–August CPI and PCE releases, and the October 27–28 decision, where markets continue to price a data-dependent path versus official guidance favoring price stability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$657,789Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation and recent energy price pressures from Middle East developments have anchored trader sentiment toward limited policy easing in the July–October 2026 FOMC cycle.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 28–29 meeting (9–3 vote), with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting concerns over inflation readings near 3.4%–3.5% CPI and firm labor market conditions (unemployment at 4.2%). This outcome, combined with forward-looking signals of a hawkish tilt, supports elevated implied probabilities for “Other” sequences that incorporate potential hikes while keeping Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15–16 meeting, informed by July–August CPI and PCE releases, and the October 27–28 decision, where markets continue to price a data-dependent path versus official guidance favoring price stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania