Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$225,212 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 Wol.
3.9%
$44,197 Wol.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Wol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Wol.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Wol.
5%
3.5%
$32,973 Wol.
4%
3.0%
$917 Wol.
3%
2.0%
$514 Wol.
2%
1.0%
$40,570 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$225,212Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$225,212Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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