Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showed solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth (annualized 1.8–2.1%), driven by private consumption and exports, but analysts widely anticipate moderation in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Forecasts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JCER, and FocusEconomics point to QoQ annualized growth clustering below 1%, reflecting softer industrial output, higher inflation pressures, and cautious capex despite ongoing wage gains and fiscal support measures. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered across ranges from negative territory through low-single-digit positive outcomes, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over the magnitude of the energy shock versus resilient domestic demand and potential supplementary budgets. Key near-term differentiators include April–June industrial production, retail sales, and BoJ communications on policy normalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJapan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
<-2.4% 86%
0.0%–0.8% 72%
1.6%–2.4% 47%
0.8%–1.6% 43%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
86%
-2.4%– -1.6%
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
37%
-0.8%–0.0%
43%
0.0%–0.8%
72%
0.8%–1.6%
43%
1.6%–2.4%
47%
2.4%–3.2%
40%
3.2%–4.0%
43%
4.0%+
<1%
<-2.4% 86%
0.0%–0.8% 72%
1.6%–2.4% 47%
0.8%–1.6% 43%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$21 Wol.
86%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$11 Wol.
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 Wol.
37%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 Wol.
43%
0.0%–0.8%
$205 Wol.
72%
0.8%–1.6%
$21 Wol.
43%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 Wol.
47%
2.4%–3.2%
$16 Wol.
40%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 Wol.
43%
4.0%+
$15 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP data showed solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth (annualized 1.8–2.1%), driven by private consumption and exports, but analysts widely anticipate moderation in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Forecasts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JCER, and FocusEconomics point to QoQ annualized growth clustering below 1%, reflecting softer industrial output, higher inflation pressures, and cautious capex despite ongoing wage gains and fiscal support measures. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered across ranges from negative territory through low-single-digit positive outcomes, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over the magnitude of the energy shock versus resilient domestic demand and potential supplementary budgets. Key near-term differentiators include April–June industrial production, retail sales, and BoJ communications on policy normalization.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$402Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP data showed solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth (annualized 1.8–2.1%), driven by private consumption and exports, but analysts widely anticipate moderation in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Forecasts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JCER, and FocusEconomics point to QoQ annualized growth clustering below 1%, reflecting softer industrial output, higher inflation pressures, and cautious capex despite ongoing wage gains and fiscal support measures. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered across ranges from negative territory through low-single-digit positive outcomes, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over the magnitude of the energy shock versus resilient domestic demand and potential supplementary budgets. Key near-term differentiators include April–June industrial production, retail sales, and BoJ communications on policy normalization.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Wolumen
$402Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showed solid 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth (annualized 1.8–2.1%), driven by private consumption and exports, but analysts widely anticipate moderation in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Forecasts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JCER, and FocusEconomics point to QoQ annualized growth clustering below 1%, reflecting softer industrial output, higher inflation pressures, and cautious capex despite ongoing wage gains and fiscal support measures. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered across ranges from negative territory through low-single-digit positive outcomes, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over the magnitude of the energy shock versus resilient domestic demand and potential supplementary budgets. Key near-term differentiators include April–June industrial production, retail sales, and BoJ communications on policy normalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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