Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.4% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Supporting this, April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC statement highlighted solid economic activity despite CPI inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2%, with low recession signals from the Sahm Rule; traders eye Q2 GDP nowcast and June FOMC for confirmation of sustained expansion.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,330 Wol.
$26,330 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
$26,330 Wol.
$26,330 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.4% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Supporting this, April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC statement highlighted solid economic activity despite CPI inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2%, with low recession signals from the Sahm Rule; traders eye Q2 GDP nowcast and June FOMC for confirmation of sustained expansion.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,330Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.4% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Supporting this, April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC statement highlighted solid economic activity despite CPI inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2%, with low recession signals from the Sahm Rule; traders eye Q2 GDP nowcast and June FOMC for confirmation of sustained expansion.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$26,330Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.4% implied probability of positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Supporting this, April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC statement highlighted solid economic activity despite CPI inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2%, with low recession signals from the Sahm Rule; traders eye Q2 GDP nowcast and June FOMC for confirmation of sustained expansion.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania