Recent monthly GDP readings, including 0.7% three-month growth through May 2026 and resilient services output, have anchored trader expectations for moderate positive QoQ expansion in Q3 despite energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. Loosening labor market conditions at 4.9% unemployment and core CPI easing to 2.6% support a baseline of subdued but positive momentum, while Bank of England policy held at 3.75% signals caution over inflation risks. The closely matched probabilities around 0.2–0.5% versus negative outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical supply shocks will outweigh underlying activity, with Q2 preliminary estimates and September BoE communications as key near-term differentiators.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.2–0.3% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
Negative 22%
0.0–0.1% 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
22%
0.0–0.1%
17%
0.2–0.3%
29%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
7%
0.8–0.9%
2%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
Negative 22%
0.0–0.1% 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
$1,344 Wol.
22%
0.0–0.1%
$198 Wol.
17%
0.2–0.3%
$356 Wol.
29%
0.4–0.5%
$462 Wol.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$158 Wol.
7%
0.8–0.9%
$139 Wol.
2%
1.0%+
$139 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP readings, including 0.7% three-month growth through May 2026 and resilient services output, have anchored trader expectations for moderate positive QoQ expansion in Q3 despite energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. Loosening labor market conditions at 4.9% unemployment and core CPI easing to 2.6% support a baseline of subdued but positive momentum, while Bank of England policy held at 3.75% signals caution over inflation risks. The closely matched probabilities around 0.2–0.5% versus negative outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical supply shocks will outweigh underlying activity, with Q2 preliminary estimates and September BoE communications as key near-term differentiators.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,795Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP readings, including 0.7% three-month growth through May 2026 and resilient services output, have anchored trader expectations for moderate positive QoQ expansion in Q3 despite energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. Loosening labor market conditions at 4.9% unemployment and core CPI easing to 2.6% support a baseline of subdued but positive momentum, while Bank of England policy held at 3.75% signals caution over inflation risks. The closely matched probabilities around 0.2–0.5% versus negative outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical supply shocks will outweigh underlying activity, with Q2 preliminary estimates and September BoE communications as key near-term differentiators.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$2,795Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly GDP readings, including 0.7% three-month growth through May 2026 and resilient services output, have anchored trader expectations for moderate positive QoQ expansion in Q3 despite energy price pressures from Middle East tensions. Loosening labor market conditions at 4.9% unemployment and core CPI easing to 2.6% support a baseline of subdued but positive momentum, while Bank of England policy held at 3.75% signals caution over inflation risks. The closely matched probabilities around 0.2–0.5% versus negative outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical supply shocks will outweigh underlying activity, with Q2 preliminary estimates and September BoE communications as key near-term differentiators.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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