The Bank of England's July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, amid CPI inflation at 2.6% in June and projections for a rise to 3.2% by year-end due to energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent services inflation near 3.6%, subdued growth, and divided MPC views—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—have reinforced trader consensus for stability, as reflected in SONIA futures and recent holds. A clearer disinflation trajectory in upcoming data releases or signs of sharper economic softening could still shift odds toward easing, though geopolitical risks continue to support the current policy stance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of England decision in September?
No change 91%
25 bps increase 9.3%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,472 Wol.
$144,472 Wol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 91%
25 bps increase 9.3%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,472 Wol.
$144,472 Wol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England's July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, amid CPI inflation at 2.6% in June and projections for a rise to 3.2% by year-end due to energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Persistent services inflation near 3.6%, subdued growth, and divided MPC views—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—have reinforced trader consensus for stability, as reflected in SONIA futures and recent holds. A clearer disinflation trajectory in upcoming data releases or signs of sharper economic softening could still shift odds toward easing, though geopolitical risks continue to support the current policy stance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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