Resilient U.S. GDP growth and a stable labor market underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5%, though still above target and prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Analyst forecasts project 1.8-2.2% growth for 2026 with recession odds around 30% over the next year, reflecting investment-led expansion offsetting softer consumer spending. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and August inflation data that could influence rate path expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS recession by end of 2027?
US recession by end of 2027?
23% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2027
23% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. GDP growth and a stable labor market underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5%, though still above target and prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Analyst forecasts project 1.8-2.2% growth for 2026 with recession odds around 30% over the next year, reflecting investment-led expansion offsetting softer consumer spending. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and August inflation data that could influence rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$108Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. GDP growth and a stable labor market underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5%, though still above target and prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Analyst forecasts project 1.8-2.2% growth for 2026 with recession odds around 30% over the next year, reflecting investment-led expansion offsetting softer consumer spending. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and August inflation data that could influence rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wolumen
$108Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. GDP growth and a stable labor market underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5%, though still above target and prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Analyst forecasts project 1.8-2.2% growth for 2026 with recession odds around 30% over the next year, reflecting investment-led expansion offsetting softer consumer spending. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and August inflation data that could influence rate path expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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