**Market-implied odds of 92.5% against a U.S. recession by end-2026 reflect resilient growth and a stable labor market just 4.5 months from resolution.** Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by consumer spending and investment despite softer government outlays, while unemployment held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, showing continued moderation from earlier tariff-related pressures, though core measures remain above the Fed’s 2% target and have prompted expectations of steady or slightly higher policy rates near 3.5-3.75%. Professional forecasters project 1.8-2.3% full-year growth and unemployment around 4.5%, consistent with an expansion that has avoided contraction signals. A sudden external shock or sharp data revision could still alter the path, but current indicators and forward-looking consensus point to continued positive momentum through December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRecesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Recesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
8% szansa
$1,703,752 Wol.
$1,703,752 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
Tak
8% szansa
$1,703,752 Wol.
$1,703,752 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Market-implied odds of 92.5% against a U.S. recession by end-2026 reflect resilient growth and a stable labor market just 4.5 months from resolution.** Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by consumer spending and investment despite softer government outlays, while unemployment held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, showing continued moderation from earlier tariff-related pressures, though core measures remain above the Fed’s 2% target and have prompted expectations of steady or slightly higher policy rates near 3.5-3.75%. Professional forecasters project 1.8-2.3% full-year growth and unemployment around 4.5%, consistent with an expansion that has avoided contraction signals. A sudden external shock or sharp data revision could still alter the path, but current indicators and forward-looking consensus point to continued positive momentum through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rynek otwarty: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,703,752Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Market-implied odds of 92.5% against a U.S. recession by end-2026 reflect resilient growth and a stable labor market just 4.5 months from resolution.** Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by consumer spending and investment despite softer government outlays, while unemployment held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, showing continued moderation from earlier tariff-related pressures, though core measures remain above the Fed’s 2% target and have prompted expectations of steady or slightly higher policy rates near 3.5-3.75%. Professional forecasters project 1.8-2.3% full-year growth and unemployment around 4.5%, consistent with an expansion that has avoided contraction signals. A sudden external shock or sharp data revision could still alter the path, but current indicators and forward-looking consensus point to continued positive momentum through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wolumen
$1,703,752Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Market-implied odds of 92.5% against a U.S. recession by end-2026 reflect resilient growth and a stable labor market just 4.5 months from resolution.** Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, supported by consumer spending and investment despite softer government outlays, while unemployment held near 4.1-4.4% with modest payroll gains. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year, showing continued moderation from earlier tariff-related pressures, though core measures remain above the Fed’s 2% target and have prompted expectations of steady or slightly higher policy rates near 3.5-3.75%. Professional forecasters project 1.8-2.3% full-year growth and unemployment around 4.5%, consistent with an expansion that has avoided contraction signals. A sudden external shock or sharp data revision could still alter the path, but current indicators and forward-looking consensus point to continued positive momentum through December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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