Trader consensus on Polymarket currently prices a 76.5% probability against a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, reflecting the economy's resilience following first-quarter 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—accelerating from 0.5% in the prior quarter—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment. The labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3% amid monthly nonfarm payroll gains averaging above 100,000 through April, while the recent Iran ceasefire has eased energy price pressures and trimmed inflation risks after the March CPI spike to 3.3%. With the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% and no Sahm Rule breach, upcoming catalysts such as the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting are expected to reinforce the expansionary trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRecesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Recesja w USA do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,456,668 Wol.
$1,456,668 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
Tak
$1,456,668 Wol.
$1,456,668 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket currently prices a 76.5% probability against a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, reflecting the economy's resilience following first-quarter 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—accelerating from 0.5% in the prior quarter—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment. The labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3% amid monthly nonfarm payroll gains averaging above 100,000 through April, while the recent Iran ceasefire has eased energy price pressures and trimmed inflation risks after the March CPI spike to 3.3%. With the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% and no Sahm Rule breach, upcoming catalysts such as the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting are expected to reinforce the expansionary trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rynek otwarty: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,456,668Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket currently prices a 76.5% probability against a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, reflecting the economy's resilience following first-quarter 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—accelerating from 0.5% in the prior quarter—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment. The labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3% amid monthly nonfarm payroll gains averaging above 100,000 through April, while the recent Iran ceasefire has eased energy price pressures and trimmed inflation risks after the March CPI spike to 3.3%. With the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% and no Sahm Rule breach, upcoming catalysts such as the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting are expected to reinforce the expansionary trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wolumen
$1,456,668Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket currently prices a 76.5% probability against a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, reflecting the economy's resilience following first-quarter 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—accelerating from 0.5% in the prior quarter—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment. The labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3% amid monthly nonfarm payroll gains averaging above 100,000 through April, while the recent Iran ceasefire has eased energy price pressures and trimmed inflation risks after the March CPI spike to 3.3%. With the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% and no Sahm Rule breach, upcoming catalysts such as the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting are expected to reinforce the expansionary trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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