Recent disinflation has positioned a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting as the dominant outcome, with traders assigning an 85.5% implied probability. Headline inflation eased to 5.6% year-over-year in April, while underlying price growth stabilized near 4–5% annualized after one-off factors such as the VAT hike faded. The central bank’s April 24 decision lowered the policy rate 50 basis points to 14.5%, its eighth consecutive cut, and signaled scope for further easing provided inflation expectations continue moderating toward the 4% target. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal spending and external uncertainties support the modest 12.5% odds of no change, while an increase remains remote at 2.1% given the current restrictive stance and baseline forecast for average rates of 14.0–14.5% this year.