The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to shape trader expectations for July. Elevated core inflation forecasts, now at 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 owing to energy-price pressures linked to the Iran conflict, have introduced upside risks that support a gradual normalization path. Economists polled in mid-May assign a 65 percent probability of a June increase, which would likely leave the July meeting unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty around global growth and domestic wage dynamics, however, keeps a modest probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment priced at 40 percent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Wol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Wol.
1%
No change
$20 Wol.
59%
25 bps increase
$86 Wol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 Wol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to shape trader expectations for July. Elevated core inflation forecasts, now at 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 owing to energy-price pressures linked to the Iran conflict, have introduced upside risks that support a gradual normalization path. Economists polled in mid-May assign a 65 percent probability of a June increase, which would likely leave the July meeting unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty around global growth and domestic wage dynamics, however, keeps a modest probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment priced at 40 percent.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$921Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to shape trader expectations for July. Elevated core inflation forecasts, now at 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 owing to energy-price pressures linked to the Iran conflict, have introduced upside risks that support a gradual normalization path. Economists polled in mid-May assign a 65 percent probability of a June increase, which would likely leave the July meeting unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty around global growth and domestic wage dynamics, however, keeps a modest probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment priced at 40 percent.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$921Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to shape trader expectations for July. Elevated core inflation forecasts, now at 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 owing to energy-price pressures linked to the Iran conflict, have introduced upside risks that support a gradual normalization path. Economists polled in mid-May assign a 65 percent probability of a June increase, which would likely leave the July meeting unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty around global growth and domestic wage dynamics, however, keeps a modest probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment priced at 40 percent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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