The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of Mexico Decision in June
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 94.9%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 2.6%
$10,987 Wol.
$10,987 Wol.
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
6%
No change
95%
Increase
3%
No change 94.9%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 2.6%
$10,987 Wol.
$10,987 Wol.
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
$649 Wol.
6%
No change
$9,185 Wol.
95%
Increase
$1,153 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,987Data zakończenia
Jun 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$10,987Data zakończenia
Jun 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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