The ongoing US naval blockade and tightened sanctions have cut Iranian crude loadings to near zero since late August 2026, depleting floating storage and pushing projected oil revenues toward exhaustion by mid-December due to payment lags from Chinese buyers. This foreign-currency shortage, layered on top of 78-90% inflation and an IMF-forecast 7.6% economic contraction, continues to weigh on the rial through reduced hard-currency inflows and elevated domestic demand for dollars. Central bank interventions have narrowed recent volatility around the free-market rate near 2.7 million rials per dollar, yet the structural revenue gap leaves limited scope for sustained appreciation before year-end. Trader positioning in the 2.5-3.5 million range reflects these supply constraints and the short timeline to resolution, while lower-probability tails capture risks of sharper depreciation or unexpected stabilization measures.