Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, holding at 5.1% annualized as of mid-September after rising from 4.4%, have anchored market-implied odds favoring expansion of 3.0% or higher at 60.5%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending components, alongside resilient business investment tied to AI-related capital outlays, have driven the elevated tracking estimate following Q2’s 1.5% pace. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and August payroll gains of 162,000 support underlying demand, though elevated inflation prompted the Federal Reserve’s September 25 basis point rate increase. Official advance GDP data, due later this fall, remains the key resolution catalyst amid typical nowcast revisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 52%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 7%
<0.5% 3.7%
$33,589 Wol.
$33,589 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
7%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
64%
≥3.0% 52%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 7%
<0.5% 3.7%
$33,589 Wol.
$33,589 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$1,224 Wol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$872 Wol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$860 Wol.
2%
1.5–2.0%
$1,030 Wol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$2,353 Wol.
7%
2.5–3.0%
$3,925 Wol.
11%
≥3.0%
$23,325 Wol.
64%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, holding at 5.1% annualized as of mid-September after rising from 4.4%, have anchored market-implied odds favoring expansion of 3.0% or higher at 60.5%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending components, alongside resilient business investment tied to AI-related capital outlays, have driven the elevated tracking estimate following Q2’s 1.5% pace. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and August payroll gains of 162,000 support underlying demand, though elevated inflation prompted the Federal Reserve’s September 25 basis point rate increase. Official advance GDP data, due later this fall, remains the key resolution catalyst amid typical nowcast revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,589Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, holding at 5.1% annualized as of mid-September after rising from 4.4%, have anchored market-implied odds favoring expansion of 3.0% or higher at 60.5%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending components, alongside resilient business investment tied to AI-related capital outlays, have driven the elevated tracking estimate following Q2’s 1.5% pace. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and August payroll gains of 162,000 support underlying demand, though elevated inflation prompted the Federal Reserve’s September 25 basis point rate increase. Official advance GDP data, due later this fall, remains the key resolution catalyst amid typical nowcast revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Wolumen
$33,589Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts for Q3 2026 real GDP growth, holding at 5.1% annualized as of mid-September after rising from 4.4%, have anchored market-implied odds favoring expansion of 3.0% or higher at 60.5%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending components, alongside resilient business investment tied to AI-related capital outlays, have driven the elevated tracking estimate following Q2’s 1.5% pace. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1% and August payroll gains of 162,000 support underlying demand, though elevated inflation prompted the Federal Reserve’s September 25 basis point rate increase. Official advance GDP data, due later this fall, remains the key resolution catalyst amid typical nowcast revisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania