Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates, recently holding at 5.1% for Q3 2026, underpin the market-implied 50.5% probability of growth at or above 3.0%, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending amid resilient consumer outlays and AI-driven business investment. Q2 growth came in at 1.5%, but recent data including solid August payroll gains and steady labor market conditions have supported momentum, with private forecasts from sources like TD Economics tracking near 2.8%. Sticky inflation and potential net export drags introduce some downside risks, while the next GDPNow update and BEA advance estimate later this quarter represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 51%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,112 Wol.
$28,112 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
20%
2.5–3.0%
16%
≥3.0%
51%
≥3.0% 51%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,112 Wol.
$28,112 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$911 Wol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Wol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Wol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Wol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,950 Wol.
20%
2.5–3.0%
$3,461 Wol.
16%
≥3.0%
$19,852 Wol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates, recently holding at 5.1% for Q3 2026, underpin the market-implied 50.5% probability of growth at or above 3.0%, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending amid resilient consumer outlays and AI-driven business investment. Q2 growth came in at 1.5%, but recent data including solid August payroll gains and steady labor market conditions have supported momentum, with private forecasts from sources like TD Economics tracking near 2.8%. Sticky inflation and potential net export drags introduce some downside risks, while the next GDPNow update and BEA advance estimate later this quarter represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,112Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates, recently holding at 5.1% for Q3 2026, underpin the market-implied 50.5% probability of growth at or above 3.0%, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending amid resilient consumer outlays and AI-driven business investment. Q2 growth came in at 1.5%, but recent data including solid August payroll gains and steady labor market conditions have supported momentum, with private forecasts from sources like TD Economics tracking near 2.8%. Sticky inflation and potential net export drags introduce some downside risks, while the next GDPNow update and BEA advance estimate later this quarter represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Wolumen
$28,112Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates, recently holding at 5.1% for Q3 2026, underpin the market-implied 50.5% probability of growth at or above 3.0%, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government spending amid resilient consumer outlays and AI-driven business investment. Q2 growth came in at 1.5%, but recent data including solid August payroll gains and steady labor market conditions have supported momentum, with private forecasts from sources like TD Economics tracking near 2.8%. Sticky inflation and potential net export drags introduce some downside risks, while the next GDPNow update and BEA advance estimate later this quarter represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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