Market-implied odds for the August 2026 Core CPI year-over-year print show a broad distribution centered on 2.3–2.5%, underscoring trader uncertainty about the inflation trajectory following mixed recent data. Recent labor market softening and moderating goods prices have supported lower outcomes, yet persistent services and shelter components continue to elevate the risk of stickier readings. The spread across probabilities reflects the influence of potential revisions to prior months, commodity volatility, and upcoming employment reports that could shift expectations before the release. Federal Reserve communications on monetary policy will also factor into positioning as traders weigh the balance between cooling demand and anchored inflation measures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCore CPI YoY - August 2026
2.4% 35%
2.3% 22%
2.5% 14%
2.7% 11%
≤2.0%
3%
2.1%
3%
2.2%
8%
2.3%
22%
2.4%
35%
2.5%
14%
2.6%
10%
2.7%
11%
2.8%
8%
≥2.9%
3%
2.4% 35%
2.3% 22%
2.5% 14%
2.7% 11%
≤2.0%
3%
2.1%
3%
2.2%
8%
2.3%
22%
2.4%
35%
2.5%
14%
2.6%
10%
2.7%
11%
2.8%
8%
≥2.9%
3%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the August 2026 Core CPI year-over-year print show a broad distribution centered on 2.3–2.5%, underscoring trader uncertainty about the inflation trajectory following mixed recent data. Recent labor market softening and moderating goods prices have supported lower outcomes, yet persistent services and shelter components continue to elevate the risk of stickier readings. The spread across probabilities reflects the influence of potential revisions to prior months, commodity volatility, and upcoming employment reports that could shift expectations before the release. Federal Reserve communications on monetary policy will also factor into positioning as traders weigh the balance between cooling demand and anchored inflation measures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano

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