**Persistent inflation near the 3.5% threshold alongside a resilient labor market underpins the 78.5% market-implied probability for an overheating outcome at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, while headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year (0.4% month-over-month), driven by energy prices including a 3.9% gasoline increase. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% YoY. These readings keep unemployment well below the 5.0% line while inflation remains sticky near the overheating cutoff, bolstered by elevated oil prices and supply factors. Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning, assigns negligible odds (0.3% each) to stagflation or slack scenarios, as labor-market slack shows no material widening. The Federal Reserve’s expected September rate decision and recent hawkish communications further embed expectations that policy will remain focused on containing price pressures without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness by December. Upcoming September CPI, retail sales, and FOMC projections will provide near-term signals on whether inflation sustains above 3.5% into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 79%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 16%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$86,488 Wol.
$86,488 Wol.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
79%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
16%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 79%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 16%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$86,488 Wol.
$86,488 Wol.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$29,540 Wol.
79%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$39,685 Wol.
16%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,751 Wol.
<1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,511 Wol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Persistent inflation near the 3.5% threshold alongside a resilient labor market underpins the 78.5% market-implied probability for an overheating outcome at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, while headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year (0.4% month-over-month), driven by energy prices including a 3.9% gasoline increase. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% YoY. These readings keep unemployment well below the 5.0% line while inflation remains sticky near the overheating cutoff, bolstered by elevated oil prices and supply factors.
Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning, assigns negligible odds (0.3% each) to stagflation or slack scenarios, as labor-market slack shows no material widening. The Federal Reserve’s expected September rate decision and recent hawkish communications further embed expectations that policy will remain focused on containing price pressures without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness by December. Upcoming September CPI, retail sales, and FOMC projections will provide near-term signals on whether inflation sustains above 3.5% into year-end.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$86,488Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Persistent inflation near the 3.5% threshold alongside a resilient labor market underpins the 78.5% market-implied probability for an overheating outcome at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, while headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year (0.4% month-over-month), driven by energy prices including a 3.9% gasoline increase. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% YoY. These readings keep unemployment well below the 5.0% line while inflation remains sticky near the overheating cutoff, bolstered by elevated oil prices and supply factors.
Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning, assigns negligible odds (0.3% each) to stagflation or slack scenarios, as labor-market slack shows no material widening. The Federal Reserve’s expected September rate decision and recent hawkish communications further embed expectations that policy will remain focused on containing price pressures without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness by December. Upcoming September CPI, retail sales, and FOMC projections will provide near-term signals on whether inflation sustains above 3.5% into year-end.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Wolumen
$86,488Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation near the 3.5% threshold alongside a resilient labor market underpins the 78.5% market-implied probability for an overheating outcome at year-end 2026.** August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, while headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year (0.4% month-over-month), driven by energy prices including a 3.9% gasoline increase. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% YoY. These readings keep unemployment well below the 5.0% line while inflation remains sticky near the overheating cutoff, bolstered by elevated oil prices and supply factors. Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning, assigns negligible odds (0.3% each) to stagflation or slack scenarios, as labor-market slack shows no material widening. The Federal Reserve’s expected September rate decision and recent hawkish communications further embed expectations that policy will remain focused on containing price pressures without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness by December. Upcoming September CPI, retail sales, and FOMC projections will provide near-term signals on whether inflation sustains above 3.5% into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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