Recent July 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% from 4.2% in June amid a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and sizable downward revisions to prior months, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring strength. This softening follows a period of subdued job gains, with the labor market settling into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower population growth, reduced immigration, and lingering effects from prior monetary tightening. Elevated inflation readings, partly tied to energy prices and potential tariff impacts, have kept the Fed on hold near 3.5-3.75%, balancing dual-mandate risks without aggressive easing that could support faster hiring. Traders are monitoring the September 4 jobs report, upcoming CPI releases, and FOMC communications for signals on whether the rate stays anchored near 4.1-4.3% or rises toward 4.5% or higher by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$481,132 Wol.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
10%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
7%
10.0%
5%
$481,132 Wol.
5.0%
$123,059 Wol.
10%
5.5%
$200,573 Wol.
8%
6.0%
$75,508 Wol.
7%
7.0%
$31,082 Wol.
7%
10.0%
$50,910 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% from 4.2% in June amid a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and sizable downward revisions to prior months, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring strength. This softening follows a period of subdued job gains, with the labor market settling into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower population growth, reduced immigration, and lingering effects from prior monetary tightening. Elevated inflation readings, partly tied to energy prices and potential tariff impacts, have kept the Fed on hold near 3.5-3.75%, balancing dual-mandate risks without aggressive easing that could support faster hiring. Traders are monitoring the September 4 jobs report, upcoming CPI releases, and FOMC communications for signals on whether the rate stays anchored near 4.1-4.3% or rises toward 4.5% or higher by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$481,132Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% from 4.2% in June amid a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and sizable downward revisions to prior months, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring strength. This softening follows a period of subdued job gains, with the labor market settling into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower population growth, reduced immigration, and lingering effects from prior monetary tightening. Elevated inflation readings, partly tied to energy prices and potential tariff impacts, have kept the Fed on hold near 3.5-3.75%, balancing dual-mandate risks without aggressive easing that could support faster hiring. Traders are monitoring the September 4 jobs report, upcoming CPI releases, and FOMC communications for signals on whether the rate stays anchored near 4.1-4.3% or rises toward 4.5% or higher by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$481,132Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1% from 4.2% in June amid a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and sizable downward revisions to prior months, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring strength. This softening follows a period of subdued job gains, with the labor market settling into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower population growth, reduced immigration, and lingering effects from prior monetary tightening. Elevated inflation readings, partly tied to energy prices and potential tariff impacts, have kept the Fed on hold near 3.5-3.75%, balancing dual-mandate risks without aggressive easing that could support faster hiring. Traders are monitoring the September 4 jobs report, upcoming CPI releases, and FOMC communications for signals on whether the rate stays anchored near 4.1-4.3% or rises toward 4.5% or higher by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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