Recent August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month against 0.2% expectations, highlights persistent energy-driven pressures from Middle East tensions that have lifted gasoline prices over 27% annually and oil above $100 per barrel. These factors, alongside sticky core services and rising producer prices, have elevated one-year consumer inflation expectations to 4.6% and shifted Fed rate-hike odds above 85% for the September meeting. Traders price September CPI near 3.5% as the modal outcome amid uncertainty over energy spillovers versus any offsetting base effects, with the closely bunched probabilities around 3.4-3.6% reflecting limited visibility into pass-through dynamics before the October 14 release.