Recent Statistics Canada data showing Canadian CPI rising to 3.1% year-over-year in September 2026, driven by a 27.8% surge in gasoline prices amid elevated energy costs, has anchored trader consensus around the 3.0-3.4% band for full-year 2026 inflation. Core measures eased, with CPI-trim at 1.8% and CPI-median at 1.9%, while excluding food and energy the rate held near 2.1%, highlighting contained underlying pressures offset by volatile energy components. Parliamentary Budget Office and private forecasts project averages near 2.8%, incorporating tariff-related effects and Middle East supply risks, though the Bank of Canada’s October 28 Monetary Policy Report may clarify the path. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of recent prints and forward uncertainty.