Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$72Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Wolumen
$72Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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